February Medium/Long Range Thread

[Fozz]

The 6z GFS at 300 hours has a very amped storm that buries the far N/W crowd but screws everyone else with driving 33 degree rain.

Way too far out to have any emotion about it but I’m glad to see the signal.

[Stormchaserchuck1]

We actually have a good West-based La Nina going

I went back to 1998, and found 14 analogs to the West-based La Nina event. Here is what they showed for the following March
US Temps:

500mb... the important part is the N. pacific pattern:

Matches the current LR GEFS over the Pacific.. 384hr

[mitchnick]

12 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

We actually have a good West-based La Nina going

I went back to 1998, and found 14 analogs to the West-based La Nina event. Here is what they showed for the following March
US Temps:

500mb... the important part is the N. pacific pattern:

Matches the current LR GEFS over the Pacific.. 384hr

Eps at 360hrs says not so fast!

[Stormchaserchuck1]

21 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

Eps at 360hrs says not so fast!

That Pacific pattern is evolving about the same though.. give it a day or two and the trough will lift out. 

[Ji]

That Pacific pattern is evolving about the same though.. give it a day or two and the trough will lift out. 

We only care about the first 10 days of March

[mitchnick]

9 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

That Pacific pattern is evolving about the same though.. give it a day or two and the trough will lift out. 

Can't argue with that. It's inevitable anyway. I hope we have a warm spring.

[mitchnick]

3 minutes ago, Ji said:

We only care about the first 10 days of March

6z Gfs is best case and the AI is, as has it has now become almost every run, the worst case.

[Maxim]

48 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

We actually have a good West-based La Nina going

I went back to 1998, and found 14 analogs to the West-based La Nina event. Here is what they showed for the following March
US Temps:

500mb... the important part is the N. pacific pattern:

Matches the current LR GEFS over the Pacific.. 384hr

I see 2012 as an analog, which was such a statistical outlier. I do think March will be warm this year, but I doubt it comes anywhere near 2012

[Stormchaserchuck1]

3 minutes ago, Maxim said:

I see 2012 as an analog, which was such a statistical outlier. I do think March will be warm this year, but I doubt it comes anywhere near 2012

It was a west-based Nina though. 1=1. You can't throw it out unless something else that is happen doesn't match. In this case I'm using ENSO, because the La Nina has come relatively late, and the SOI is running positive, etc..  Winter trend though has been for +PNA, so we'll see how that goes. 

[Ji]

6z Gfs is best case and the AI is, as has it has now become almost every run, the worst case.

Ai is nothing like eps

[Stormchaserchuck1]

Indexes really turn rough. There is some left over EC trough from the +PNA, then it just goes all-south Days 14+. It can change though. 

[Blizzard of 93]

0z ensembles for week 2 all show that we should at least have chances as we roll through early March.

[dailylurker]

12 minutes ago, Maxim said:

I see 2012 as an analog, which was such a statistical outlier. I do think March will be warm this year, but I doubt it comes anywhere near 2012

Was that the year it was 85-90 almost everyday for weeks? I remember it looked like mid Summer by April first that year. That was the worst winter. We didn't get a flake here. The coldest morning was like 28.

[mitchnick]

24 minutes ago, Ji said:

Ai is nothing like eps

Fwiw, my personal opinion on the AI is that post 7 days it's as unreliable as any other operational run post day 7. Ensembles do better post day 7 imho. Can it be right post day 7? Sure, just as often as any other operational model.  Meaning, it's dumb luck.

Day 5 and in is when the AI has shined.

[mitchnick]

42 minutes ago, Ji said:

Ai is nothing like eps

As an example of my post above, 6z AI made a big jump from 0z unlike the ensembles. 

[Round Hill WX]

9 hours ago, Yeoman said:

You all are fools. AI is what weather modeling has been using since day one, which are algorithms, data, and computing power to perform forecasting that is beyond the capability of human intelligence.

The sooner everyone realizes weather is unpredictable in all but the most stable conditions, the sooner you won't bother wasting your time with these fantasy model runs. Look up the butterfly effect, chaos theory, etc.. and then find a new hobby. Embrace the unexpected..

Cool story bro....

[frd]

1 hour ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

0z ensembles for week 2 all show that we should at least have chances as we roll through early March.

 

We will trend colder near early to mid March, but doubt its cold enough for snow in our region, except for maybe psu land. 

The core of the cold will reside in the NE part of the country. Not seeing the bowling bowl pattern across the Midwest, and the cold is easing out West, while the AO continues positive, there is no severe AO for mid month for cold air delivery. Also, by mid March the PNA goes negative.  

  

 

 

[mitchnick]

In case you haven't looked, just about everything is showing a legit SSW the first week of March. Enjoy the cool spring. 

[IronTy]

20 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

In case you haven't looked, just about everything is showing a legit SSW the first week of March. Enjoy the cool spring. 

Mid-50s and rain incoming!!

[dailylurker]

27 minutes ago, IronTy said:

Mid-50s and rain incoming!!

I hope we do get rain. It's been super dry this winter. One of the reasons we held on to snowpack for so long is because we didn't get our usual rain the day after to wash it away. Ive had like 2" of moisture this year. Most of it fell as snow in January. 

[JenkinsJinkies]

5 hours ago, Maxim said:

I see 2012 as an analog, which was such a statistical outlier. I do think March will be warm this year, but I doubt it comes anywhere near 2012

Even if we get the raging SER that's a Nina staple?

[Ji]

Euro was ready to destroy when run ended

[winter_warlock]

Just now, Ji said:

Euro was ready to destroy when run ended

 At hour 360??  Lmaoooo yeah that will happen

[adelphi_sky]

14 minutes ago, winter_warlock said:

 At hour 360??  Lmaoooo yeah that will happen

Cue Jaws theme.

[Ji]

 At hour 360??  Lmaoooo yeah that will happen

It’s the euro lol

[Ji]

Let’s go

[Weather Will]

4 minutes ago, Ji said:

Let’s go

We were burned so badly this past week. Let's see how it looks next weekend! WB 5 day anomalies days 10-15.

[mitchnick]

2 minutes ago, Weather Will said:

We were burned so badly this past week. Let's see how it looks next weekend! WB 5 day anomalies days 10-15.

Looks like central and southern VA and NC on track for another big one.

[Weather Will]

3 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

Looks like central and southern VA and NC on track for another big one.

WB EPS 5 day snow mean at range is north...

[wxdude64]

2 hours ago, dailylurker said:

I hope we do get rain. It's been super dry this winter. One of the reasons we held on to snowpack for so long is because we didn't get our usual rain the day after to wash it away. Ive had like 2" of moisture this year. Most of it fell as snow in January. 

*Glances at his 8.00 of liquid and 19.7 inches of snow for Feb along with 2.71/10.4 for Jan and realizes just how much a difference weather is in the Mid-Atlantic forum....*