February Medium/Long Range Thread

[WEATHER53]

I get a pied piper feeling all over again 

[mappy]

Move along from the political talk

[Daniel Boone]

12 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

Unfortunately, I  think we need some changes to that end of run Heisey posted. Looks to pass south with a large, flat trough to our NE as it is depicted now. Plenty of time at least.

Yeah, I was thinking that as I replied about the possibility of it getting the MA then got to thinking there is a weakness that the large NS Low could shoot NE through and allow the SS one to cut some.

[SnowenOutThere]

It's normal for a bombed out cyclone to have no snow associated with it all the way into Canada in winter right? 

[stormy]

9 minutes ago, SnowenOutThere said:

It's normal for a bombed out cyclone to have no snow associated with it all the way into Canada in winter right? 

[adelphi_sky]

26 minutes ago, stormy said:

It will go south......southern VA is the new snow magnet.

[Benjamn3]

Just now, adelphi_sky said:

It will go south......southern VA is the new snow magnet.

Fingers crossed. 

[stormtracker]

21 minutes ago, adelphi_sky said:

It will go south......southern VA is the new snow magnet.

That only works if the heavy snow is over us.  In the case, the north trend will return. 

[Heisy]

The 12z euro has the Heisynator March 7-8


.

[DDweatherman]

Just now, Heisy said:

The 12z euro has the Heisynator March 7-8


.

Holy cow, March 7th? That's like 3 years from now. 

[Heisy]

Holy cow, March 7th? That's like 3 years from now. 

Patience young weenie.

It’s coming.

I’m locked in




.

[TowsonWeather]

[Kevin Reilly]

14 hours ago, winter_warlock said:

Lmaooo yes he does!!  You'd think he'd change his tune by now cause he's wrong every march lol

This pattern that we are in doesn’t even suggest that a March 8th to 14th 1993 type storm is even remotely possible.  March 1993 was a triple phased storm with the mother load of Arctic Air heading to the central Gulf of Mexico …. Right now and into next two weeks I’m seeing an untimed split flow with zero phasing systems pretty far apart maybe well east there can be a phase but not here right now. 

[frd]

35 minutes ago, Kevin Reilly said:

This pattern that we are in doesn’t even suggest that a March 8th to 14th 1993 type storm is even remotely possible.  March 1993 was a triple phased storm with the mother load of Arctic Air heading to the central Gulf of Mexico …. Right now and into next two weeks I’m seeing an untimed split flow with zero phasing systems pretty far apart maybe well east there can be a phase but not here right now. 

Blocking is gone. Return to normal and the 50's. Might hit 60 next Tuesday. 

[BristowWx]

13 minutes ago, frd said:

Blocking is gone. Return to normal and the 50's. Might hit 60 next Tuesday. 

time for mulch and grass seed.  I hate both of those things

[Ji]

5 minutes ago, BristowWx said:

time for mulch and grass seed.  I hate both of those things

im gonna rock with the icon

[mitchnick]

Eps has Heisey's storm off the coast and not inland like the operational fwiw.

[Ji]

Just now, mitchnick said:

Eps has Heisey's storm off the coast and not inland like the operational fwiw.

great. so its game on?

[mitchnick]

AI loses the storm on the 7/8 (that it showed on the past 3 runs or so) and instead brings a front thru on 3/6 that starts as rain and maybe ends as snow.

Basically, no snow on the run from what I'm seeing.

[Ji]

1 minute ago, mitchnick said:

AI loses the storm on the 7/8 (that it showed on the past 3 runs or so) and instead brings a front thru on 3/6 that starts as rain and maybe ends as snow.

Basically, no snow on the run from what I'm seeing.

might be a bit out of its range. You will be okay

[mitchnick]

49 minutes ago, Ji said:

might be a bit out of its range. You will be okay

 It's going to have to be a pretty big storm or it's just salt in the wound. 

[Allsnow]

1 hour ago, mitchnick said:

AI loses the storm on the 7/8 (that it showed on the past 3 runs or so) and instead brings a front thru on 3/6 that starts as rain and maybe ends as snow.

Basically, no snow on the run from what I'm seeing.

You love the AI

[adelphi_sky]

35 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

You love the AI

AI is the new kid on the team. The rookie. He gets hazed and bullied. But he stays after practice and works out longer. Studies the plays at home while the other players play video games. HE wakes up at 5am and runs 5 miles. Then a few years later, he's the star. 

[Wintrest]

1 hour ago, adelphi_sky said:

AI is the new kid on the team. The rookie. He gets hazed and bullied. But he stays after practice and works out longer. Studies the plays at home while the other players play video games. HE wakes up at 5am and runs 5 miles. Then a few years later, he's the star. 

Well said.

This is just the start!

The number of unseen/not-considered data points in forecasting is mind boggling, especially in the 3-5 day range (particularly with focus on energetic systems). We know the info is clearly there, thought what it is and its relevancy is another thing. I’m very excited to see what this will contribute to forecasting in both the short and long(er) term.

[mitchnick]

2 hours ago, Allsnow said:

You love the AI

It runs 4x/day out 360hrs. Of course I love it. Lol

[CAPE]

As I mentioned in some previous posts, this is likely the beginning of our last gasp window for a potential winter storm, ending around the the 10th. Pretty decent signal for a coastal low here with possible frozen precip.

[aldie 22]

1 hour ago, mitchnick said:

It runs 4x/day out 360hrs. Of course I love it. Lol

Ever since you discovered the cute little AI model I wish you hadn't 

[Mikeymac5306]

1 hour ago, CAPE said:

As I mentioned in some previous posts, this is likely the beginning of our last gasp window for a potential winter storm, ending around the the 10th. Pretty decent signal for a coastal low here with possible frozen precip.

When was the first gasp?

[Jebman]

I am holding out for a March 1993 Redux.

[Yeoman]

8 hours ago, Allsnow said:

You love the AI

You all are fools. AI is what weather modeling has been using since day one, which are algorithms, data, and computing power to perform forecasting that is beyond the capability of human intelligence.

The sooner everyone realizes weather is unpredictable in all but the most stable conditions, the sooner you won't bother wasting your time with these fantasy model runs. Look up the butterfly effect, chaos theory, etc.. and then find a new hobby. Embrace the unexpected..