February Medium/Long Range Thread

[ravensrule]

3 hours ago, psuhoffman said:

Must make it hard to aim 

You should see my bathroom floor. 

[Krs4Lfe]

36 minutes ago, snowfan said:

 

It’s always surprised me how even when other places are having a “snowless” or “mild” winter, it’s much better than NYC, sometimes in an average NYC winter. Snowfall in the 20s each year is bad when your average is 40, but look at us we can barely crack 13” in a cold winter this decade 

[winter_warlock]

8 hours ago, Heisy said:

I personally think the March 4-10 time frame has a chance to produce. As long as the -EPO has formed like the ensembles showing by then the tpv is farther SE. just depends if we get hurt by -PNA or not


.

I personally  think the winter of 2032-2033 has a chance to produce 

 I figured  since we're putting fantasy ideas out there , I give one of my own lol

[HighStakes]

JB brought out the 1993 card today. 

[Ji]

That seems bad to me. When I was there over 20 years ago “normal” was just under 50”. Over the last 20 years it looks like they haven’t had anymore snow than me here. 

State college seems to do really well when we have good winters. This ain’t a state college issue. We have just been struggling everywhere except for lake effect areas

[Kevin Reilly]

36 minutes ago, winter_warlock said:

I personally  think the winter of 2032-2033 has a chance to produce 

 I figured  since we're putting fantasy ideas out there , I give one of my own lol

2%-3% Chance of an asteroid strike that year too.

[Kevin Reilly]

22 minutes ago, Ji said:

State college seems to do really well when we have good winters. This ain’t a state college issue. We have just been struggling everywhere except for lake effect areas

Altoona too I check and it seems they haven’t had snow on the ground for about 4 days dating back to Christmas. 

[mattie g]

1 hour ago, snowfan said:

 

I just so happen to have been at college in Lewisburg in 93-94 and 95-96. It just seemed to want to snow all the f’ing time in 93-94, with bigger dogs in 95-96.

In any case, I’m not really interested in more snow once we get into March this year. It’s been cold and kind of miserable this winter so I’m fine with just moving on at this point, but if it snows then I’ll enjoy it while it falls and for the three hours it lasts after it ends.

[winter_warlock]

34 minutes ago, HighStakes said:

JB brought out the 1993 card today. 

 For when???  Lol. JB gets goofier  and goofier lol  

[EastCoast NPZ]

12 minutes ago, Kevin Reilly said:

2%-3% Chance of an asteroid strike that year too.

Perhaps we'll benefit from the nuclear winter.

[Ji]

3 minutes ago, winter_warlock said:

 For when???  Lol. JB gets goofier  and goofier lol  

just settle down. He uses the 1993 analog every March without fail

[Maestrobjwa]

56 minutes ago, winter_warlock said:

I personally  think the winter of 2032-2033 has a chance to produce 

 I figured  since we're putting fantasy ideas out there , I give one of my own lol

Curious about why you picked that year specifically, lol

[Harv_poor]

1 hour ago, snowfan said:

 

This is interesting. I went to Penn State before the graph starts (from 70 to 74) and can remember three major snowstorms, spring of 71, Thanksgiving 71 ( which was a cold rain in central NJ) , and a huge storm in Feb 74, (again not major in central Jersey as I was home for the weekend but to get back to school I had to drive south (Penn Turnpike to Harrisburg rather then I 80).

[winter_warlock]

14 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Curious about why you picked that year specifically, lol

Why not lol  the modeling puts out far fetched fantasy crap anyhow. I figured I'd pick a far fetched year lol

[winter_warlock]

22 minutes ago, Ji said:

just settle down. He uses the 1993 analog every March without fail

Lmaooo yes he does!!  You'd think he'd change his tune by now cause he's wrong every march lol

[Harv_poor]

Should have added memories of 50+ years are tough, but I remember my first year at Penn State (70-71) I was disappointed in the amount of snow until the late season snowstorm, no memories of 71-72, 72-73 being little snow but several ice storms and 73-74 being a decent  snow year.

[ravensrule]

When all people are doing in the long range thread is reminiscing, we’re FOOKED. 

[Silver Meteor]

2 hours ago, Harv_poor said:

Should have added memories of 50+ years are tough, but I remember my first year at Penn State (70-71) I was disappointed in the amount of snow until the late season snowstorm, no memories of 71-72, 72-73 being little snow but several ice storms and 73-74 being a decent  snow year.

The 1970s was feast or famine ... mostly famine as I remember. 

[stormy]

9 hours ago, Krs4Lfe said:

It’s always surprised me how even when other places are having a “snowless” or “mild” winter, it’s much better than NYC, sometimes in an average NYC winter. Snowfall in the 20s each year is bad when your average is 40, but look at us we can barely crack 13” in a cold winter this decade 

Drought doesn't encourage snow

[adelphi_sky]

This can't be good. Two posts in 6 hours. 

[Terpeast]

Don't know why everyone is so downbeat. We're still awaiting cold to come the first week of march, and I was originally thinking the window of mar 4-10 we may have a shot, but with the -PNA being delayed by the euro ensembles, that window may be extended a bit longer. 

Maybe we're just burned out? That I can understand!

[Kmlwx]

3 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

Don't know why everyone is so downbeat. We're still awaiting cold to come the first week of march, and I was originally thinking the window of mar 4-10 we may have a shot, but with the -PNA being delayed by the euro ensembles, that window may be extended a bit longer. 

Maybe we're just burned out? That I can understand!

It's totally that  - we're getting overrun by the "bring on the 70s and 80s" - which I can totally get behind. I'm not against nice weather. But let's let our seasons just do their thing. It's still 2/21...I'm not about to root for an onslaught of heat/humidity/mosquitos and bugs this early. It'll be here before all of you heat lovers know it. I've always said - it's easier to warm up than it is to cool down. I personally wish I could hibernate (other than during thunderstorms) for the period form June until mid-September). 

I'm biased by being an absolute mosquito buffet though...and having a medical heat intolerance. 

[Heisy]

This is the period I’m focused on for a last shot…

Here is the euro Ai giving you an example of a pattern that can work




.

[psuhoffman]

I think around March 6-10th might be our best but final window.  As the pacific pattern retrogrades there will be a brief window when there is still antecedent cold left and as a trough builds off the west coast it could favor an amplification in the east.  After that the ridge in the WPO will cause some SER and in March any is too much.  I'm not convinced its a long term pattern change and we go warm and stay warm but we probably don't have time for another recycle.  It might turn colder again towards March 20 but by then we would need a once in 30 year type anomaly to get any snow of significance in the area, even up here.  

I probably won't be able to post much longer...so if this is it...its been fun.  Wish I could have gone out with a win!  

[Solution Man]

8 minutes ago, BristowWx said:

Thanks for all you contributed to the board.  I think we all learn something with your posts which is a win.  We'll get 'em next winter for sure.  

@BristowWx, I will move on after the 6-10 March timeframe as my new PXG clubs need breaking in. I will test drive them end of next week in FLA. @psuhoffmanthanks for your analysis during the winter. Reading and learning from you gives me a much better understanding of weather. Great Job brother!

[winter_warlock]

27 minutes ago, Heisy said:

This is the period I’m focused on for a last shot…

Here is the euro Ai giving you an example of a pattern that can work




.

Well it's only 2 weeks away.   What could go wrong lol

[Daniel Boone]

32 minutes ago, Heisy said:

This is the period I’m focused on for a last shot…

Here is the euro Ai giving you an example of a pattern that can work




.

That would work even well to the South. That verbatim nay even be more of a Tn Valley southern Apps mauler. If that Southern System moved due east , by the looks of that it would probably then cut ene and hammer the MA. At least the lower MA 

[mitchnick]

21 minutes ago, Daniel Boone said:

That would work even well to the South. That verbatim nay even be more of a Tn Valley southern Apps mauler. If that Southern System moved due east , by the looks of that it would probably then cut ene and hammer the MA. At least the lower MA 

There's a system that comes up a few days earlier than that on the AI eerily (eerily if you live in S PA that is) similar to what we just saw, though not as much qpf...yet! Though, surface temps are a problem down south. Maybe it trends north...yeah, right.

[Daniel Boone]

2 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

There's a system that comes up a few days earlier than that on the AI eerily (eerily if you live in S PA that is) similar to what we just saw, though not as much qpf...yet! Though, surface temps are a problem down south. Maybe it trends north...yeah, right.

Yeah. Couple more chances at least before the fat lady sings. March is the month historically of the real Big Dogs. Man, wouldn't it be nice to end with one of those. That would really uplift and satisfy us all.

[mitchnick]

Just now, Daniel Boone said:

Yeah. Couple more chances at least before the fat lady sings. March is the month historically of the real Big Dogs. Man, wouldn't it be nice to end with one of those. That would really uplift and satisfy us all.

Unfortunately, I  think we need some changes to that end of run Heisey posted. Looks to pass south with a large, flat trough to our NE as it is depicted now. Plenty of time at least.