February Medium/Long Range Thread

[mitchnick]

Southern areas sticking it to us with the ull too.

https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/nexrad/?parms=AKQ-N0B-1-24-100-usa-rad

[Heisy]

AI continues to show no snow 

The end of the run is workable though. Not saying it will snow but pattern isn’t horrible if you know what I mean


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[mitchnick]

Just now, Heisy said:

The end of the run is workable though. Not saying it will snow but pattern isn’t horrible if you know what I mean


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Personally, at that range I think the ensembles do better. AI really jumps around near the end of its run, as in past 10 days.

[frd]

16 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

Southern areas sticking it to us with the ull too.

https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/nexrad/?parms=AKQ-N0B-1-24-100-usa-rad

Remarkable the amounts of snow in VA. Without question the Southern areas did well this winter. 

Despite a -5.25 SD AO our area did not get the worse of the recent cold, snowy winter weather,  but nation-wide it was much more severe in Tenn. Valley, Plains, and the areas well South of us. The white out in VA. and other areas was crazy earlier this week. The depth of the arctic air mass via the severe AO was amazing in the Midwest, and in the Plains. 

The long range control model and other model snowfall ensembles as usual did a shit show with tons of snow over the Northern Mid-Atlantic. Seasonal tendency won out mostly. We are lucky we got what we did. 

Areas of Florida had more snow this season than Philly. That was on the local ABC network news last night. 

 

[blizzardmeiser]

15 minutes ago, frd said:

Remarkable the amounts of snow in VA. Without question the Southern areas did well this winter. 

Despite a -5.25 SD AO our area did not get the worse of the recent cold, snowy winter weather,  but nation-wide it was much more severe in Tenn. Valley, Plains, and the areas well South of us. The white out in VA. and other areas was crazy earlier this week. The depth of the arctic air mass via the severe AO was amazing in the Midwest, and in the Plains. 

The long range control model and other model snowfall ensembles as usual did a shit show with tons of snow over the Northern Mid-Atlantic. Seasonal tendency won out mostly. We are lucky we got what we did. 

Areas of Florida had more snow this season than Philly. That was on the local ABC network news last night. 

 

Florida was due, those folks have been in a snow hole for a long time.  Glad they finally cashed in.

[Terpeast]

I know it doesn't feel like it now, but the fact that all the southern areas cashing in at least puts to bed the theory that snowstorm tracks are moving further north and cutting us out. We're still good. If anything, we lost maybe 15-20% of our usual snow climo in the long term. Like Bob Chill, I have a feeling that the next 5-10 winters will be more closer to climo compared to the last 8 years and include at least one big dog, maybe two. 

[TSSN+]

2 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

I know it doesn't feel like it now, but the fact that all the southern areas cashing in at least puts to bed the theory that snowstorm tracks are moving further north and cutting us out. We're still good. If anything, we lost maybe 15-20% of our usual snow climo in the long term. Like Bob Chill, I have a feeling that the next 5-10 winters will be more closer to climo compared to the last 8 years and include at least one big dog, maybe two. 

Flurries bro 

[psuhoffman]

9 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

I know it doesn't feel like it now, but the fact that all the southern areas cashing in at least puts to bed the theory that snowstorm tracks are moving further north and cutting us out. We're still good. If anything, we lost maybe 15-20% of our usual snow climo in the long term. Like Bob Chill, I have a feeling that the next 5-10 winters will be more closer to climo compared to the last 8 years and include at least one big dog, maybe two. 

Depends where you start the regression...if we go all the way back to the 1800s we've lose a little over 20% in Baltimore.  That number changes if you start picking different arbitrary points in time to compare.  You can even make it look like we've not lost very much if you intentionally start the comparison at the nadir of a cyclical warm snow drought period.  

[mitchnick]

11 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

I know it doesn't feel like it now, but the fact that all the southern areas cashing in at least puts to bed the theory that snowstorm tracks are moving further north and cutting us out. We're still good. If anything, we lost maybe 15-20% of our usual snow climo in the long term. Like Bob Chill, I have a feeling that the next 5-10 winters will be more closer to climo compared to the last 8 years and include at least one big dog, maybe two. 

You mean the world isn't going to end? Whew!

[Terpeast]

2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Depends where you start the regression...if we go all the way back to the 1800s we've lose a little over 20% in Baltimore.  That number changes if you start picking different arbitrary points in time to compare.  You can even make it look like we've not lost very much if you intentionally start the comparison at the nadir of a cyclical warm snow drought period.  

Actually I started at 1962, where IAD data begins. So I'm really starting from one of the coldest (and relatively snowier) periods in the 20th century save for the early 1900s.

[frd]

19 minutes ago, blizzardmeiser said:

Florida was due, those folks have been in a snow hole for a long time.  Glad they finally cashed in.

You mean a snow hole or a Black Hole ? 

[psuhoffman]

3 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

Actually I started at 1962, where IAD data begins. So I'm really starting from one of the coldest (and relatively snowier) periods in the 20th century save for the early 1900s.

Yea... that's probably why it doesn't look THAT much worse even if you go back to the 1800s...because you started the comp at a relatively snowy point of the cycles.  The more troubling thing to me would be if you use the handful of sites we have that do have reliable data back into the 1800s, we now have 4 "snowy" cycles to evaluate and the max snow anomaly seems to be shifting north with each one.  If you go back to the snow max in the late 1800s the greatest positive snow anomalies were even centered south of us with several notable major southern snow events.  The 1960's one was centered right over us with DC to NYC being the max positive snow anomaly for the period...but the last snowy cycle from 2001-2015 the anomaly was centered from NYC to Boston!  At what point if this continues are the positive snowy periods not as snowy?  Yes the last snowy cycle was a lot better than the last 8 years but it wasn't nearly as snowy for DC and Baltitmore as the previous 3 snowy cycles were.  

[Terpeast]

16 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Yea... that's probably why it doesn't look THAT much worse even if you go back to the 1800s...because you started the comp at a relatively snowy point of the cycles.  The more troubling thing to me would be if you use the handful of sites we have that do have reliable data back into the 1800s, we now have 4 "snowy" cycles to evaluate and the max snow anomaly seems to be shifting north with each one.  If you go back to the snow max in the late 1800s the greatest positive snow anomalies were even centered south of us with several notable major southern snow events.  The 1960's one was centered right over us with DC to NYC being the max positive snow anomaly for the period...but the last snowy cycle from 2001-2015 the anomaly was centered from NYC to Boston!  At what point if this continues are the positive snowy periods not as snowy?  Yes the last snowy cycle was a lot better than the last 8 years but it wasn't nearly as snowy for DC and Baltitmore as the previous 3 snowy cycles were.  

Fair. The 15-20% drop I saw was based on the 1962 starting point. If dulles airport was built in the late 1800s and I could go further back then, then I think the drop in snow climo would be even more pronounced, too. 

[Porsche]

Looks like a Miller B on the GFS around 170

[stormtracker]

Brutal

[stormtracker]

9 minutes ago, Porsche said:

Looks like a Miller B on the GFS around 170

 

 

 

 

Same storm, 2 days ago

[Chris78]

1 minute ago, stormtracker said:

Same storm, 2 days ago

12z was a deamp though compared to the last few runs.

[ravensrule]

11 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

Same storm, 2 days ago

Global Cooling. 

[TSSN+]

14 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

Same storm, 2 days ago

You new here? 

[psuhoffman]

24 minutes ago, Porsche said:

Looks like a Miller B on the GFS around 170

It's really just a progressive but amplifying wave along the boundary.  It doesn't develop late or jump us..its just too far north of a track as is.  If you adjusted that track south a bit we would get a decent snowstorm from it.  If the boundary is cold enough I should say.  

[clskinsfan]

14 minutes ago, Chris78 said:

12z was a deamp though compared to the last few runs.

Which fits this winters trend very well. 

[stormtracker]

2 minutes ago, TSSN+ said:

You new here? 

No.  My spirit is tho and that fucker is traumatized and deflated.

[psuhoffman]

4 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

No.  My spirit is tho and that fucker is traumatized and deflated.

GGEM has a perfect track rainstorm!  

[stormtracker]

Just now, psuhoffman said:

GGEM has a perfect track rainstorm!  

Fits

[psuhoffman]

it's all rain....

it does go nuculear off NJ and give NYC a blizzard though so yay for them 

[bncho]

21 minutes ago, Chris78 said:

12z was a deamp though compared to the last few runs.

the trend.

[ravensrule]

1 minute ago, psuhoffman said:

GGEM has a perfect track rainstorm!  

Exactly where we want it. 

[psuhoffman]

De-amp wont work though...yea it might get the storm under us but we have a crappy antecedent airmass...the only path to snow is a bomb really.  We need a sub 990 low at our latitude probably for this to work...which is another way of saying its probably not going to work...but the win would be the GGEM but have it bomb out a little faster/further south.  

I am not as worried about suppressed with this wave, there is no mechanism to suppress it other than if the wave just washes out and ends up really weak but then who cares its not a snow for anyone.  

[mitchnick]

4 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

it's all rain....

it does go nuculear off NJ and give NYC a blizzard though so yay for them 

It'll be gone for them by tomorrow because it's been happening like that all year. It could be over us, but then it moves away from us after that. Wash, rinse, repeat.

[stormtracker]

Just now, mitchnick said:

It'll be gone for them by tomorrow because it's been happening like that all year. It could be over us, but then it moves away from us after that. Wash, rinse, repeat.

Welcome to team doom friend.