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February Medium/Long Range Thread

stormtracker

By stormtracker,
in Mid Atlantic

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Scarlet Pimpernel

Scarlet Pimpernel

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, Scraff said:

Hug every beautiful fluffy snowflake like it’s your last. That’s always been my motto. I would take a snow storm in fucking July! Who cares!? Though, we will need to torch 2 days later so I can get back to my pinky sipping Reunite on ice under a palm tree. :lol:  Ok. Double IPA. So my point though, I’m here for the snow! Severe season is fine. Eh. Lightning is fun for like a millisecond. Hurricanes meh (unless it’s coming up straight up the bay). I don’t give a rats ass when it snows though. Any day of the week in any time of the year. Just lay down a fresh carpet of fluffy white for me. I need my zen Jebwalk moments. Means a lot to me…

 

 

I seriously LOL'ed at this!!!

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stormtracker
stormtracker
stormtracker
stormtracker

Ok, I got two camps about the thread.  Do I open Ji's storm thread NOW or wait until 12z tomorrow?  Hit the "100" reaction for now and Trophy cup reaction for tomorrow and I'll move accordingly.   vot

brooklynwx99
brooklynwx99

Next week's system has become increasingly ominous and holds potential for significant to major impacts from DC - NYC and even BOS. There are a few features that make this such a favorable setup, mirr

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IronTy

IronTy

Posted
Posted
18 minutes ago, Scarlet Pimpernel said:

Haha, I ran track in high school myself, in northeast Ohio!  And yeah, our practices would start in late March and early April (ugh!).  There was at least one time that there was still some crusty ice and snow on the track at that time during a practice.  I typically ran the 100m, 200m and 400m (4 by 100) relay.  For the relay during a track meet, when I was the leadoff runner, I kept the baton warm under my sweatshirt as long as I could before having to take sweats off right before the event!  Nothing like having a cold aluminum baton slap against your hand as you passed it off (I was either 1st or 2nd leg in those relays).

Ugh and the track surface felt like running on titanium when it was so cold and you had your spikes on - so cold and hard.  I get a case of shin splints just thinking about it.  I stole our state finals baton my senior year and still have it to this day, 25yrs later!

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psuhoffman

psuhoffman

Posted
Posted
44 minutes ago, IronTy said:

I think you're missing the forest for the trees.  Just because it's *usually* chilly doesn't mean I have to like it.  Early September is *usually* still hot but that doesn't mean I'm not sick of the humidity then either.  Cold in March would be more tolerable if I had a foot of snow to look forward to but 99.5 days out of a hundred it actually just means cold, bare, frozen ground.  

Not liking it and the annual need to have a bitch fest about it are two different things. There are many things I don’t like but if it’s normal come to accept and just deal with. Typically when you complain a lot it’s something new or unusual. It’s odd that every year like clock work we have the same exact discussion 

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baltosquid

baltosquid

Posted
Posted
3 hours ago, psuhoffman said:

But ya know what, it’s a free country still, I think… so ya can feel however you want. Me, I’m enjoying every flake I can get. I don’t care what time of year.  Is all snow and it’s going to melt no matter when it falls. 

Sure, it's supposed to melt, but you know what I say? Buffalo didn't have the guts to leave their giant 2014 snowpile undisturbed. We can build the mythical summer-surviving snowpile here, if we ever get enough snow...

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Stormchaserchuck1

Stormchaserchuck1

Posted
Posted

Models got rid of the -EPO dominated pattern. How fast things can change.. +NAO looks like the biggest constant of the next 15 days. By Days 14-15 they are trying to develop a strong Aleutian ridge, but that hasn't held already this Winter so let's see how we progress, but it's not a real cold pattern looking ahead after the next few days.. 

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CAPE

CAPE

Posted
Posted
8 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

Models got rid of the -EPO dominated pattern. How fast things can change.. +NAO looks like the biggest constant of the next 15 days. By Days 14-15 they are trying to develop a strong Aleutian ridge, but that hasn't held already this Winter so let's see how we progress, but it's not a real cold pattern looking ahead after the next few days.. 

EPO is still forecast to go negative around the end of the month on the means. Prior to that we have a +PNA Chuck.

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Stormchaserchuck1

Stormchaserchuck1

Posted
Posted
2 minutes ago, CAPE said:

EPO is still forecast to go negative around the end of the month on the means. Prior to that we have a +PNA Chuck.

Yeah, they just backed way off of it. It looks like a 2-3 day -EPO period.  +PNA/-EPO has been correlating with +NAO since 2013 at a 0.40 correlation, I wish I would have kept that thought in Winter forecast, because that's what we're seeing! The Atlantic side neutralize a weakly favorable Pacific, as the MJO passes through favorable phases.. +QBO/Weak Nina are keeping 10mb cold, and that is making it really hard for any -AO/-NAO to sustain this Winter. 

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CAPE

CAPE

Posted
Posted
5 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

Yeah, they just backed way off of it. It looks like a 2-3 day -EPO period.  +PNA/-EPO has been correlating with +NAO since 2013 at a 0.40 correlation, I wish I would have kept that thought in Winter forecast, because that's what we're seeing! The Atlantic side neutralize a weakly favorable Pacific, as the MJO passes through favorable phases.. +QBO/Weak Nina are keeping 10mb cold, and that is making it really hard for any -AO/-NAO to sustain this Winter. 

Given the metrics heading into winter we were pretty lucky to get any significant -AO/NAO periods. Going forward into March our chances for cold/possible snow will be driven largely by a more favorable Pacific.

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Stormchaserchuck1

Stormchaserchuck1

Posted
Posted
2 minutes ago, CAPE said:

Given the metrics heading into winter we were pretty lucky to get any significant -AO/NAO periods. Going forward into March our chances for cold/possible snow will be driven largely by a more favorable Pacific.

Yeah. 6z GEFS is developing a monster Aleutian high at Days 14-15, but it did that 2-3 weeks ago and it didn't verify, so let's see if the trend of the Winter continues (for a better Pacific pattern).. 

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psuhoffman

psuhoffman

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

Models got rid of the -EPO dominated pattern. How fast things can change.. +NAO looks like the biggest constant of the next 15 days. By Days 14-15 they are trying to develop a strong Aleutian ridge, but that hasn't held already this Winter so let's see how we progress, but it's not a real cold pattern looking ahead after the next few days.. 

I don't see any difference in the pattern from yesterday honestly.  We can now see a day further and you seem focused on what comes "next" after the cold period.  But yesterday at the very end of ensembles they were already building a ridge west of alaska as the pacific jet retracts and the MJO probably starts to get more hostile by then.  Today we just see a day further into that process.  But if you pick a steady date like March 1 or March 5 things look pretty much the same now as they did 24 hours ago.  You are focused on the changes in the pac that happen around March 5-8 which will be the linkely end to cold for us by around March 10-15 which we already knew.  

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Stormchaserchuck1

Stormchaserchuck1

Posted
Posted
7 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

I don't see any difference in the pattern from yesterday honestly.  We can now see a day further and you seem focused on what comes "next" after the cold period.  But yesterday at the very end of ensembles they were already building a ridge west of alaska as the pacific jet retracts and the MJO probably starts to get more hostile by then.  Today we just see a day further into that process.  But if you pick a steady date like March 1 or March 5 things look pretty much the same now as they did 24 hours ago.  You are focused on the changes in the pac that happen around March 5-8 which will be the linkely end to cold for us by around March 10-15 which we already knew.  

EPO region doesn't have as much ridging. 

I'm basing this more on the 06z GFS ensembles, and that's really the first run with a substantial difference, so maybe it will mean more if it holds later on today.. 

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dailylurker

dailylurker

Posted
Posted

I know it doesn't seem dry because it's a muddy nasty mess out there but it is. Our active pattern collapsed and the drought base state seems to be in charge. The next 10 days looks dry. I'd love an actual storm. What happened to big coastal rainers. I'd take a good nor'easter with wind and a few inches of rain over some 4" march slop storm that melts before it's over. 

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stormtracker

stormtracker

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Posted
1 hour ago, mitchnick said:

No chance od snow between now and next weekend.  Pattern shifts to cold after that for 10 days, give or take a day or two. That's our last chance. It's gotta happen then or fugetaboutit.

I am shocked by this development.  
 

I told you man. Were cooked.  I’m hunting for 70s now. 

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MegaMike

MegaMike

Posted
Posted
4 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

the AIFS humping is going to be unbearable for a while. past 5 days it isn't as good as any other model, really

It's an experimental model that doesn't predict moisture/heat flux based on fluid dynamics. As a result, it's totally unreliable in my opinion... It's probably the reason why the NWS doesn't refer to it in their forecast discussions.

Can't wait to see how it performs during the warm season. With limited training data on hurricanes, I expect it to perform terribly with tropical disturbances.

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