BTRWx's Thanks Giving Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 Any word on the eps? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 10 minutes ago, WxMan1 said: What irks me about all of this is here we are, 2025, and the global models still struggle consistently locking in with a system for 5+ days out during the winter. At least, one that's going to involve snow for the DMV. Rain storms April through November? No problem. It always seems that the models are generally in better agreement. Whether It's split flow, northern and southern stream contributions, amplified waves or not. Same sampling issues, or lack thereof, that we have with winter storm tracks here in the East. Can't figure it out, unless it's just anecdotal on my part. This is where I thought AI would help, and maybe to some extent it is. But even the EC AIFS has bounced around with solutions between days 4-7. I think snowstorms are more difficult because you’re adding additional variables because they tend to run along the thermal boundary and involve stream interactions. Summer precip events are almost always convective or frontal passages. I don’t think that’s a good comp. Several years ago I tested this hypothesis and tracked early spring and late fall rain events that more closely resembled the synoptic physics of a winter storm and found the models sucked ass at those also. Several times a 1.25 qpf output for me at day 5 ended up south of me or so far north that I definitely would have gone from snow to rain had that been part of the equation. We just don’t remember those busts as much. Losing an inch of rain doesn’t hurt. Actually it means I got another day on the golf course, bike trails or hiking in. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 3 minutes ago, mikem81 said: Bernie Rayno had decent video. Essentially blaming the energy entering the west coast kicking the ULL formation east of yesterdays runs DT mentioned the western kicker in a video yesterday on youtube. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 3 minutes ago, mitchnick said: JB update This is really pretty interesting. The better the upper air pattern goes with the negatives coming right through the slot, the further out the model pushes the storm. Well at the very least if it’s right I’ll get to see something that I can’t recall seeing. That kind of negative should produce an I 95 blizzard DC to Boston So the call from February 11 remains if I have to change it I’ll change it on Tuesday because until this feature comes out of the Rockies I’ve said too many of these flip flop around. If you’re standing on the ledge don’t jump off yet Last edited12:50 PM · Feb 16, 2025 from Pennsylvania, USA Jb hasn’t been relevant since Nom 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 7 minutes ago, aldie 22 said: White flag moment? No just open to being wrong and learning 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 23 minutes ago, mitchnick said: Completely losing the ridging out front. Exactly, too many posts in this forum overcomplicate things. More downstream ridging= Further north track Less downstream ridging= Further south track. Ot works out at least 95% of the time unless you're looking at the Nam. Edit: whoops meant downstream not upstream. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 51 minutes ago, Amped said: Still not a great trend since 12z yesterday, the southern stream looking flatter and more progressive. We need the opposite. This looks as if I’d expect it to cut west of us and be a rainer. This is very puzzling to say the least. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 Just now, Fozz said: This looks as if I’d expect it to cut west of us and be a rainer. This is very puzzling to say the least. I saw what amped said above about ridging upstream, but to be fair it was very flat relatively on the initial image. Not a huge trend there. id more attribute it to the more rounded tpv but a more positive/neutral tilt if anything. That and there being very little phase activity to YANK or TUG this N/W 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 4 minutes ago, TSSN+ said: Jb hasn’t been relevant since Nom Still it’s an update of hope. And we like hope…and booze it seems Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 1 minute ago, DDweatherman said: I saw what amped said above about ridging upstream, but to be fair it was very flat relatively on the initial image. Not a huge trend there. id more attribute it to the more rounded tpv but a more positive/neutral tilt if anything. That and there being very little phase activity to YANK or TUG this N/W There will be yanking and tugging by tomorrow night. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Reilly Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 10 minutes ago, TSSN+ said: Jb hasn’t been relevant since Nom Bring back Elliott Abrams!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 7 minutes ago, ravensrule said: There will be yanking and tugging by tomorrow night. And with that little statement, the line begins forming. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Warm Nose Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 8 minutes ago, ravensrule said: There will be yanking and tugging by tomorrow night. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 9 minutes ago, ravensrule said: There will be yanking and tugging by tomorrow night. You are one sick mofo…. I’m here for it. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx's Thanks Giving Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 EPS??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 17 minutes ago, mitchnick said: JB update This is really pretty interesting. The better the upper air pattern goes with the negatives coming right through the slot, the further out the model pushes the storm. Well at the very least if it’s right I’ll get to see something that I can’t recall seeing. That kind of negative should produce an I 95 blizzard DC to Boston So the call from February 11 remains if I have to change it I’ll change it on Tuesday because until this feature comes out of the Rockies I’ve said too many of these flip flop around. If you’re standing on the ledge don’t jump off yet Last edited12:50 PM · Feb 16, 2025 from Pennsylvania, USA So it’s scary that I’m on team JB. But can’t deny he just said what I’ve been saying. lol. Ugh One point I’d contest is 95 Blizzard. That’s typical JB hype. The best h5 analogs I found were secs-MECS level events. The h5 track is actually NW of ideal for those 1983, 1996, 2003, 2010, 2016 type storms. It’s also not oriented like those were. But the weird part is the reason most of the comp storms I saw weren’t bigger along 95 was mixing issues not a miss south. lol. But it’s most definitely not similar to any “miss to our southeast” analog comp. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 1 minute ago, BTRWx's Thanks Giving said: EPS??? Awful 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
adelphi_sky Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: So it’s scary that I’m on team JB. But can’t deny he just said what I’ve been saying. lol. Ugh One point I’d contest is 95 Blizzard. That’s typical JB hype. The best h5 analogs I found were secs-MECS level events. The h5 track is actually NW of ideal for those 1983, 1996, 2003, 2010, 2016 type storms. It’s also not oriented like those were. But the weird part is the reason most of the comp storms I saw weren’t bigger along 95 was mixing issues not a miss south. lol. But it’s most definitely not similar to any “miss to our southeast” analog comp. It's good to find confirmation in your thoughts. Would be nice if LWX chimed in with the same thoughts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 19 minutes ago, Amped said: Exactly, too many posts in this forum overcomplicate things. More downstream ridging= Further north track Less downstream ridging= Further south track. Ot works out at least 95% of the time unless you're looking at the Nam. Edit: whoops meant downstream not upstream. Yea but that’s adjusting a track I never understood. Even when the surface track was perfect for us I was kinda worried about it cutting more. Not to the point we got no snow but enough that the bigger snow ends up NW is us. The track had never aligned with the h5 even when it was looking good for us. So yea I see why the flatter look is shifting the track south. But that’s shifting a track I already didn’t understand why it was so out of alignment with the flow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 I stand by the point I’m making. But just because I’ve never seen anything like this doesn’t mean it’s impossible. Not going DT here. It does mean it’s a very rare anomaly and I’m not ready to concede that’s what’s gonna happen but rate anomalies do happen. So just because there hasn’t been a case like this in our upper level records doesn’t mean it can’t or won’t happen. The closer we get the more I have to accept the possibility but I’m holding out until tomorrow night. If we don’t see any hints by the 0z Tuesday runs I’ll put up the white flat 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 1 minute ago, psuhoffman said: I stand by the point I’m making. But just because I’ve never seen anything like this doesn’t mean it’s impossible. Not going DT here. It does mean it’s a very rare anomaly and I’m not ready to concede that’s what’s gonna happen but rate anomalies do happen. So just because there hasn’t been a case like this in our upper level records doesn’t mean it can’t or won’t happen. The closer we get the more I have to accept the possibility but I’m holding out until tomorrow night. If we don’t see any hints by the 0z Tuesday runs I’ll put up the white flat You can't concede before JB. What if you both are right? Let him concede first. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Imgoinhungry Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 I stand by the point I’m making. But just because I’ve never seen anything like this doesn’t mean it’s impossible. Not going DT here. It does mean it’s a very rare anomaly and I’m not ready to concede that’s what’s gonna happen but rate anomalies do happen. So just because there hasn’t been a case like this in our upper level records doesn’t mean it can’t or won’t happen. The closer we get the more I have to accept the possibility but I’m holding out until tomorrow night. If we don’t see any hints by the 0z Tuesday runs I’ll put up the white flat What are you expecting? Low off coast to move west and for entire system to shift nw?. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 Just heard a couple rumbles of thunder which is unacceptable in February, so I’m now ok with a 4-6” snowfall…which is still in play. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 Btw…a great disco by lwx explaining the latest trends and that it’s not necessarily a wrap yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wetbulbs88 Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 2 minutes ago, 87storms said: Btw…a great afternoon disco by lwx explaining the latest trends and that it’s not necessarily a wrap yet. Share please! Need some hopium. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 16 Author Share Posted February 16 Come on team, tighten up. WE got at least another day left in us before we call it quits. Let's give until after the 0z tomm night? We are only injured, not dead. Let's reel it in 6 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Imgoinhungry Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 Nam running. Hoping it continues to show a decent thump from the WAA. Thats all i want at this point. . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 16 Author Share Posted February 16 NAM kinda looks like it's about to fuck somebody up. I could just be wish-hallucinating too. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 18z nam 54, h5 vort angle of attack a bit more NE 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 Share please! Need some hopium. https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=LWX&issuedby=LWX&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=off Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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