konksw Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 Bring on BBQ weather and thunderstorms. 1 1 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JenkinsJinkies Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 Just now, konksw said: Bring on BBQ weather and thunderstorms. I'm seeing mid 60s at the start of March. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 5 minutes ago, high risk said: Oh good. You’re back with your incessant 3rd grade understanding of NWP. It’s interesting how upset the kids get and resort to name calling , excuse making . Winter storms in mid Atlantic are just impossibly difficult to predict unlike all the other occurrent seasonal weather. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 6 minutes ago, paxpatriot said: I’m just a M/D Guy living in a Southeastern Virginian Guy’s winter. Time to accept it. Except the southeastern Virginian guy is getting the northern crew's winter, and the MDers are probably whiffing feathery cirrus. So are the Dale City'ers. Whiffing high ice clouds, minus the high. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 Wow a voice of reason identifying need for change . I guess it’s up to two now. You only bring up this topic when snow is taken away lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 Looking ahead… there will be a warm up the last week of feb into first few days of march, but it may be brief as mjo is slow to get through 1-2-3 and epo ridge showing signs of rebuilding 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rjvanals Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 Toggling through the Euro runs since Friday and there's only small changes synoptically so trying to figure out what has screwed this up 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 5 minutes ago, konksw said: Bring on BBQ weather and thunderstorms. Not in south central TX. Weds we get 29/14 and maybe sleet FRZRA thrown in for bad measure. You guys need to get the snow and we get mild and BBQ with decent Texas beer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 1 minute ago, Terpeast said: Looking ahead… there will be a warm up the last week of feb into first few days of march, but it may be brief as mjo is slow to get through 1-2-3 and epo ridge showing signs of rebuilding Appears we lost the follow up threats, as blocking is diminishing. I am OK with Spring arriving. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 3 minutes ago, 87storms said: You only bring up this topic when snow is taken away lol That’s because it’s the only precip and weather type that creates impossibility for accurate forecasting according to many responses. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Warm Nose Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 17 minutes ago, 87storms said: Next ... Winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 5 minutes ago, 87storms said: You only bring up this topic when snow is taken away lol Irrelevant The number of 4” snows that turn into 15+ is like 1,2. The number of 15* that turn into partly cloudy, rain or 4” is at the least 10X the former 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GATECH Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 Time to kill this thread and make a resurrection one! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JenkinsJinkies Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 I've seen epic blocking collapse 10 days out, but never 4 days out. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 Just now, GATECH said: Time to kill this thread and make a resurrection one! We should move this into a storm thread, imo, just because of the range. Focus on the warmth here. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 1 minute ago, NorthArlington101 said: We should move this into a storm thread, imo, just because of the range. Focus on the warmth here. Yeah, scraff declined to be the creator. Who’s next in line??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 The 5D ascension Thread: A Tale of Two PSU Blizzards, Back to Back. You'll get the snow. The storm will come back on the models. It was only a hiccup, and the resurrection thread will save the storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wetbulbs88 Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 Not understanding the snow maps at all. DC squarely in 0.5”+ yet less than five inches of snow in a cold storm? I mean I get that snow growth isn’t as good outside the banding but I don’t think globals are very capable of that sort of granularity. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 Just now, Wetbulbs88 said: Not understanding the snow maps at all. DC squarely in 0.5”+ yet less than five inches of snow in a cold storm? I mean I get that snow growth isn’t as good outside the banding but I don’t think globals are very capable of that sort of granularity. You've got the 6Z precip map there sir. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 Just now, Wetbulbs88 said: Not understanding the snow maps at all. DC squarely in 0.5”+ yet less than five inches of snow in a cold storm? I mean I get that snow growth isn’t as good outside the banding but I don’t think globals are very capable of that sort of granularity. You posted 6z qpf and 12z snow map. Good job Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikem81 Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 1 minute ago, Wetbulbs88 said: Not understanding the snow maps at all. DC squarely in 0.5”+ yet less than five inches of snow in a cold storm? I mean I get that snow growth isn’t as good outside the banding but I don’t think globals are very capable of that sort of granularity. 06 12z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 Not understanding the snow maps at all. DC squarely in 0.5”+ yet less than five inches of snow in a cold storm? I mean I get that snow growth isn’t as good outside the banding but I don’t think globals are very capable of that sort of granularity. Your using wrong qpf maps Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 Just now, SomeguyfromTakomaPark said: You've got the 6Z precip map there sir. People need to learn how to read the maps before they post them lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DarkSharkWX Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 Although the Euro has been trending better in some aspects(a more amped upper low, kicker more held back -> more +PNA), the problem here is the tilt. It has been trending more neutrally tilted which is a problem, additionally, the flow out ahead of the TPV lobe is more suppressive, and the southern stream shortwave isn't digging as much, leading to a more OTS solution. Ideally you'd want to see the confluence lift up a bit with the SS digging more for a less flat flow. We'll need an earlier, more robust phase with less flat flow. Looking at old runs that were good for us, the +PNA was good but the key difference was that the trough was more buckled since the SS wave was able to dig more leading to a more negative tilt. The TPV wasn't squashing out the flow in front of it because of this, so now in future runs we'd want to see a relax of more confluence and more buckling of the trough via the SS wave being deeper, and maybe slow down a little bit to raise heights out east and turn the trough negative. I don't think the +PNA is the issue here on its own; its a phenomenal change, its the fact that there's other changes which are bad vis a vis the SS wave which makes the flow out ahead of the TPV lobe worse, so that's why despite the Pacific "improving", surface is considerably worse. 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 did he post the wrong maps? did anyone see this? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 40 minutes ago, mitchnick said: In case you were wondering how different the Nam looked to the Euro at 84hrs. Honestly they both look like we should be worried about a too far NW track not a coastal scraper. I’ve honestly never need so “confused” by model output. I rarely ever see something I’ve never seen before but this is if. A closed h5 low near Chicago and a h7 pass through PA = big snow to our southeast? Not in any book I’ve ever read. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 That’s because it’s the only precip and weather type that creates impossibility for accurate forecasting according to many responses. We know the model runs will vary at this range, otherwise we’d just look at one and tune back in on Wednesday. Most models have shown a bias for there to be too much dry air on the nw flank of this system. I still think it could fill in with the upper level energy moving thru, but the idea that there’s an ots system that might not phase properly has been there for the last couple days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 5 minutes ago, DDweatherman said: Yeah, scraff declined to be the creator. Who’s next in line??? Yeah. Someone else please. I’ve never started one good or bad. Why start now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 Just now, psuhoffman said: Honestly they both look like we should be worried about a too far NW track not a coastal scraper. I’ve honestly never need so “confused” by model output. I rarely ever see something I’ve never seen before but this is if. A closed h5 low near Chicago and a h7 pass through PA = big snow to our southeast? Not in any book I’ve ever read. Seems like the Nam energy is more consolidated so the low is lifted NW. euro is diffuse so it focuses SE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jersey Andrew Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 Is there any chance of a Boxing Day blizzard error like occurred in 2010 when models brought storm back late? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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