DDweatherman Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 That euro run sucked for a lot of the forum, but wasn’t far from something a lot different. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 On 2/16/2025 at 4:12 PM, TSSN+ said: Models this winter be like Fooled you once, shame on me Fooled you twice, shame on you Fooled you 10 times, wtf are you smokin? Expand Every storm has deamplified this winter as the event nears. It happens. Some years we get like 09-10 everything juiced up last minute. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 On 2/16/2025 at 5:31 PM, bncho said: Like PSU said, something doesn't add up/feel right about the model outputs. Expand Maybe so. But they are all doing it. It is not like it is just one of them. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
peribonca Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 Euro keeps the Northern Neck in the game. Hope this ticks north for you all north and west of 301 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 On 2/16/2025 at 5:39 PM, BristowWx said: It certainly failed fast maybe it can recover fast. Yep Expand We're close to 4 now. I fear we're headed to 0 and there's no coming back from that. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormyClearweather Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 On 2/16/2025 at 5:42 PM, Interstate said: Maybe so. But they are all doing it. It is not like it is just one of them. Expand Just taking the models some time to figure out the NAM always leads the way! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Skiseeker Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 On 2/16/2025 at 5:36 PM, bncho said: I'm no expert on this topic, but he mentions that this isn't a supressive look for us, and history tells us that this system should favor the N/W crew. Expand Yeah, I was being sarcastic, also not very knowledgeable but in living here my whole life I’ve never seen an outcome like this where the south gets jacked and the storm totally goes out to sea. Miss us, than hit New England and New York sure… but totally out to see…It’s strange… Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 On 2/16/2025 at 5:44 PM, Wonderdog said: We're close to 4 now. I fear we're headed to 0 and there's no coming back from that. Expand It’s crazy how miniscule downstream impacts can take somewhere from 0 to 12 in this. Models aren’t done moving 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 On 2/16/2025 at 5:42 PM, Interstate said: Maybe so. But they are all doing it. It is not like it is just one of them. Expand Something doesn't add up alright. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 On 2/16/2025 at 5:42 PM, Eskimo Joe said: Every storm has deamplified this winter as the event nears. It happens. Some years we get like 09-10 everything juiced up last minute. Expand But in this case though...isn't the H5 setup different than the other mire sliderish waves we've had? Or...has there been something this winter that has caused said deamplification tendency? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 On 2/16/2025 at 5:11 PM, Heisy said: Models aren’t the issue, it’s people trusting OP models outside 120 hours. Yesterday got us under that mark and boom they all started converging last night. They still identified the threat 200+ hours out. . Expand So it’s trusting the provided info that’s the problem? It’s provided but not to be considered? I dont agree. Many models showed 20” for many runs. Then in the blink of an eye it’s gone. That’s not science. NHC Never predicts a category 1 hitting Miami and we end up with a Cat 3 in Daytona . They don’t then excuse themselves with how complicated it all is. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 the NAM every once in a while is known to pick up things--so lets hope its seeing something that can be salvaged 7 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 On 2/16/2025 at 5:46 PM, Ji said: the NAM every once in a while is known to pick up things--so lets hope its seeing something that can be salvaged Expand Mike Thomas at fox is giving this until tomorrow to turn around 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hsq Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 Agree that the 12z isnt really all that far off from something great. Still time for oscillation. Also...LWX disco earlier today discussed how AIFS picked up on the OP trends earlier, but that it was starting to settle in. What is it showing now? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 On 2/16/2025 at 5:46 PM, WEATHER53 said: So it’s trusting the provided info that’s the problem? It’s provided but not to be considered? I dont agree. Many models showed 20” for many runs. Then in the blink of an eye it’s gone. That’s not science. NHC Never predicts a category 1 hitting Miami and we end up with a Cat 3 in Daytona . They don’t then excuse themselves with how complicated it all is. If models only went out to 120 hours and beyond that we only used ensembles your opinion would be a lot different . 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jandurin Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 seems obvious sit and wait mode even if we aren't getting hit Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighStakes Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 On 2/16/2025 at 5:48 PM, Terpeast said: Mike Thomas at fox is giving this until tomorrow to turn around Expand Seems like the logical approach. Still 72 hours. So much can change in the last 48 hours as we've often been victim of. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 Next 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 On 2/16/2025 at 5:46 PM, WEATHER53 said: So it’s trusting the provided info that’s the problem? It’s provided but not to be considered? I dont agree. Many models showed 20” for many runs. Then in the blink of an eye it’s gone. That’s not science. NHC Never predicts a category 1 hitting Miami and we end up with a Cat 3 in Daytona . They don’t then excuse themselves with how complicated it all is. Expand Snow storm are definitely one of the hardest things to predict. Literally everything has to go right. Need right temps at surface and uppers, need the right track, need every piece of energy at h5 to line up right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 On 2/16/2025 at 5:51 PM, 87storms said: Next Expand Only next is next year 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 On 2/16/2025 at 5:49 PM, hsq said: Agree that the 12z isnt really all that far off from something great. Still time for oscillation. Also...LWX disco earlier today discussed how AIFS picked up on the OP trends earlier, but that it was starting to settle in. What is it showing now? Expand At 96 hours the average NHC forecast error for hurricanes is 150 ish miles. There is plenty of room for this to hit us big time still. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormyClearweather Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 On 2/16/2025 at 5:49 PM, Heisy said: If models only went out to 120 hours and beyond that we only used ensembles your opinion would be a lot different . Expand Amen. And also. NHC does a great job, but there's a cone for a reason. Clearly we need to think about something similar for winter storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 On 2/16/2025 at 5:44 PM, Wonderdog said: We're close to 4 now. I fear we're headed to 0 and there's no coming back from that. Expand Yeah not with this much guidance saying the same thing. Unless the NAM is right. That was funny. I made myself laugh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 On 2/16/2025 at 5:36 PM, Maestrobjwa said: Why isn't this making sense? Have we ever had a potential fail like this before? Since I've been on this board (not long--11 years, lol), every storm that hasn't worked out has had a reason. This would be the first one that doesn't and that's even more annoying. Expand Someone made a sort of new suggestion that Nothing. actually falls apart at the last minute . All the information and parameter possibilities were evidenced all along it’s just that models can’t correctly identify it. Hurricanes almost shit simple to predict accurately and winter storms around here mostly not. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 On 2/16/2025 at 5:46 PM, WEATHER53 said: So it’s trusting the provided info that’s the problem? It’s provided but not to be considered? I dont agree. Many models showed 20” for many runs. Then in the blink of an eye it’s gone. That’s not science. NHC Never predicts a category 1 hitting Miami and we end up with a Cat 3 in Daytona . They don’t then excuse themselves with how complicated it all is. Expand Oh good. You’re back with your incessant 3rd grade understanding of NWP. 1 1 5 3 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
konksw Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 Pinning your hopes on long range NAM is the bargaining stage. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighStakes Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 Just went back and looked. EURO has it snowing lightly here early Thursday morning with -16 at 850. That's insane. This is a serious cold airmass. All we need is .3-.4 qpf. and it's a great little storm. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paxpatriot Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 I’m just a M/D Guy living in a Southeastern Virginian Guy’s winter. Time to accept it. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JenkinsJinkies Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 On 2/16/2025 at 5:56 PM, konksw said: Pinning your hopes on long range NAM is the bargaining stage. Expand So is counting on March snow to salvage a season. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 On 2/16/2025 at 5:45 PM, Wonderdog said: Something doesn't add up alright. Expand On 2/16/2025 at 5:52 PM, StormyClearweather said: Amen. And also. NHC does a great job, but there's a cone for a reason. Clearly we need to think about something similar for winter storms. Expand Wow a voice of reason identifying need for change . I guess it’s up to two now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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