baltosquid Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 12z GEFS for the first time in a bit makes a decided trend SE/drier. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 2 minutes ago, ILMRoss said: hi. i normally hang around the southern forums but i check in here every now and then. modeling consensus collapse sucks but wanted to chime in and say that the southern storms this year fit this exact same script. things get flat and dry around the twilight of the CAMs range before somehow, someway, something trends favorably to double qpf in the northern fringes, whether its a sharper wave or favorable northern stream tweaks. generally i feel uneasy in richmond because i'm watching my once-in-a-decade snow slip through my fingers, but the script from other storms this years gives me a backstop. not trying to wishcast, just providing optimism. i recognize that this is an event that yall score if i score- rooting for us Thanks for dropping in and you’re right, this storm hasn’t shown its full hand yet. Something will pop up we’re not looking at 1 for 1 on the current model progs. I love Mike Ross from suits too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 Just now, rjvanals said: As I've gotten older the tracking and excitement for the next model run is 80% of the fun with having it actually snow being a great bonus. I always wondered how you got the last five letters of your username, care to share?. 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighStakes Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 2 minutes ago, annapolismike said: I don't say much here because I do not know much. But I have been lurking around for years and I appreciate the commentary from those who have a clue what they are saying. They could be commenting from Utah, but if they have something relevant to add....should not be given grief for not being in the area. Whining about posters from just over the Mason Dixon line is stupid and risks pushing good posters out. I can't imagine this place without @psuhoffman. That out of my system, this storm sucks...yet it may well end up being the best of the season for those east of I95 and south of BWI when it all shakes out. I feel for those in Northern MD and SE PA who have been screwed this season, but many times you are basking in fluff while Annapolis gets sleet. Such is our climo. We've already lost several good posters in the last few years. I guess they felt like they were run off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 1 minute ago, psuhoffman said: The NAM is doing what I envisioned. Focused more on the TN valley wave along the arctic boundary. Just wish it was showing on the better models too. This is honestly what we’re likely gonna need to happen to salvage this thing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WVclimo Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 10 minutes ago, Chris78 said: Up our way it seems like a complete shut out or something similar to last Tuesday with 2" over 18 hours or so lol If that's the case no thanks. And the way the long range looks I'm ready to move on to Spring. Maybe better luck next Winter. I looked this morning. In the past 3 winters, I’ve had 10 events with between 2” and 3”. Only 3 with more than that, and nothing over 5”. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 Just now, HighStakes said: We've already lost several good posters in the last few years. I guess they felt like they were run off. I don’t blame them. People be cray cray up in here. Thank the lord my grandfather @mitchnick is back. 1 1 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 The NAM is doing what I envisioned. Focused more on the TN valley wave along the arctic boundary. Just wish it was showing on the better models too. Feedback issues Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baltosquid Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 If this doesn't pan out, next thing would be the 25th timeframe. Precip mean on 06z GFS was an improvement but temps are tough. Would need more "work." But it's about all we've got unless you put your faith backing up the early march warm up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx's Thanks Giving Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 5 minutes ago, baltosquid said: 12z GEFS for the first time in a bit makes a decided trend SE/drier. Have a map? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris_B Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BFZ Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 I do enjoy the irony up here in Frederick that we may wind up with more snow from yesterdays storm on 2/15 than from this upcoming one. It ripped pretty good here for a few hours yesterday. Even still have the sleet laying around in a few spots post overnight rain. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rjvanals Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 GEFS Panels 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mob1 Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 This is no good Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 Just now, rjvanals said: GEFS Panels lol that’s pretty comical. Boom or bust as usual as of late. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alfoman Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 It’s time we put some respect on the GFS’s name for standing firm the last [emoji[emoji[emoji[emoji6][emoji6]][emoji[emoji[emoji6]][emoji[emoji6]]]][emoji[emoji6][emoji6]][emoji[emoji[emoji6]][emoji[emoji6][emoji6]]]]-[emoji[emoji[emoji[emoji6][emoji6]][emoji[emoji[emoji6]][emoji[emoji6]]]][emoji[emoji[emoji[emoji6][emoji6]][emoji[emoji[emoji6]][emoji[emoji6]]]][emoji[emoji6][emoji6]][emoji[emoji[emoji6]][emoji[emoji6][emoji6]]]][emoji[emoji6][emoji6]][emoji[emoji[emoji6][emoji6]][emoji[emoji[emoji6]][emoji[emoji6]]]]] days. We discounted it but it never fully wavered from its south and OTS solutions.Our shortwave is coming onshore out west shortly. I fear if the trends continue into [emoji[emoji[emoji6]][emoji[emoji6]]]Z we can call this one what it is. 3 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormyClearweather Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 GEFS has been reasonably consistent. 6Z was a nice bump that got taken away, unsurprisingly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 On 2/14/2025 at 1:28 PM, mappy said: Not reading 10+ pages. Has PSU told us how it can fail yet? On 2/14/2025 at 1:28 PM, psuhoffman said: This ones happening On 2/14/2025 at 1:30 PM, mappy said: There’s still time 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baltosquid Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 1 minute ago, BTRWx's Thanks Giving said: Have a map? https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs-ens/2025021606/gfs-ens_apcpn24_us_14.pnghttps://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs-ens/2025021612/gfs-ens_apcpn24_us_13.png 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JenkinsJinkies Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 What are the chances we get another 2016 style storm before 2030? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 What are the chances we get another 2016 style storm before 2030?Next year El Niño? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 Just now, JenkinsJinkies said: What are the chances we get another 2016 style storm before 2030? 1.687499594339039277288494993828% to be exact Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 46 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: Something like this makes more sense if you mostly have a storm that’s being forced by the southern wave and confluence is preventing it from pushing too far north. Frankly looks more like our other events this year. Storm develops in the plains and mostly tracks east without gaining a ton of latitude. Right but those waves had a flat suppressive flow over the top and no amplified cut off h5 low to their west to pump some ridging in front. I saw why those didn’t gain latitude. I don’t understand this one. BTW I’m not saying this should be a HECS it doesn’t really fit that either. The best comps I saw that surface and h5 match are kinda messy storms (like as in sometimes multiple waves or miller b) not the perfect bombs but they weren’t suppressed south of us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JenkinsJinkies Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 1 minute ago, Ji said: Next year El Niño? I'm not buying next year being a Niño, Niñas tend to double dip and while this year was a late bloomer a Niña is still a Niña. This time last year ENSO long range was showing a Super Niña for January and the general vibe here was we would have to travel to see snow, with potential for a 22-23 redux. We all know how that turned out. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 23 minutes ago, BristowWx said: And it was fun to track. Randy’s “folks”with shocked Beethoven was something I will never forget. One of the best times ever on this board. Nothing lasts forever good or bad. Something else will come along. What occurrent event has actually been tracked? I’ve now seen several new to me comments close to “tracking for days is what is the fun and any snow is just a bonus” Do most of us feel like that? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Right but those waves had a flat suppressive flow over the top and no amplified cut off h5 low to their west to pump some ridging in front. I saw why those didn’t gain latitude. I don’t understand this one. BTW I’m not saying this should be a HECS it doesn’t really fit that either. The best comps I saw that surface and h5 match are kinda messy storms (like as in sometimes multiple waves or miller b) not the perfect bombs but they weren’t suppressed south of us. Yeah I totally get what you’re saying. Maybe we will recover the long lost late NW trend this time. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 39 minutes ago, DDweatherman said: Models so a great job at identifying threats at long leads, that’s their key area of improvement. Close in we still have our struggles with difficult set ups In fairness 100 Hours didn’t used to be “close in” I made that mistake because several storms recently the euro did a great job from 120 on in and I falsely applied that to this 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 38 minutes ago, HighStakes said: I have closer to 4 as a memory. Check your records lol. Pretty sure Westminster got 6. That's how close the good snow was. As late as that morning we weren't sure we would see anything. I was in VA at my brothers. Got 8 there. Then went to visit my sister and by the time I got home the snow was blown all over. I went of a neighbors estimate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 25 minutes ago, ravensrule said: I don’t blame them. People be cray cray up in here. Thank the lord my grandfather @mitchnick is back. Mitch is a trip. I remember one night when we hit Dennys after bingo and this big cloud of dust went by and I was like "wtf was that?" And mitch was like "oh man, sorry. I had taco bell earlier" 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Dude Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 23 minutes ago, Chris_B said: Mike has been very good with this storm from the get go. He was preaching caution when we saw the big runs, and focusing on the strength of the upper low. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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