psuhoffman Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 2 hours ago, Bob Chill said: Here's the map of Jan 29-30 2010 It’s a great match at the surface. But look how different it is at h5 and h7. Ignore the surface look at h5 and h7 the setup as the wave enters the TN valley 2010 now As the wave passes VA beach 2010 now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baltosquid Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 So yeah, losing what we saw at 00z 2/15 on the Euro seems insane. And it is in terms of outcome, but I just keep looking at BC in that specific run on h5 vort and compare it to our fail runs, and I'm less shocked. Just check out the little piece of the TPV that links with our storm. I'm sure this is too reductive and there's plenty other factors to consider, but that was a big part of why an impressive phase was even on the table. So while it seems insane to lose a storm like that on most guidance just 4-5 days out, ask if it seems insane to lose a tiny little TPV link like that 3-4 days out. Such a minor thing. Barely a blip in the weather in BC. But means much more downstream. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 6 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: Something like this makes more sense if you mostly have a storm that’s being forced by the southern wave and confluence is preventing it from pushing too far north. Frankly looks more like our other events this year. Storm develops in the plains and mostly tracks east without gaining a ton of latitude. Bingo. This makes 22 out of 24 failure model depictions for my area the last 7 years. Go with multi year consensus it is not going to snow above minor levels and you be correct most times. Also, models IMHO get too much credit. I guess for weenies it's a hard pill to swallow. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 Looking forward to the 12z Euro to pull us all back in. I don’t know why, but I’m feeling good vibes are coming our way. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 2 hours ago, Terpeast said: If we get another 1/30/10, I think it would make 80% of the forum happy. Myself included 2” here 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 Just now, Scraff said: Looking forward to the 12z Euro to pull us all back in. I don’t know why, but I’m feeling good vibes are coming our way. Oh you poor poor bastard 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WesternFringe Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 2 hours ago, Solution Man said: Remember the definition of model, and for those on the ledge please look it up, and then step back. The very first post I saw on social media when I logged on today was from a guy saying: “Remember, storms don’t trend, models do. Whatever happens was going to happen all along.” Keeping this in mind is probably a good idea for all of us on this board. @stormtracker tried to warn everyone not to live and die by every run of every model, but alas, here we are. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 2 minutes ago, frd said: Bingo. This makes 22 out of 24 failure model depictions for my area the last 7 years. Go with multi year consensus it is not going to snow above minor levels and you be correct most times. Also, models IMHO get too much credit. I guess for weenies it's a hard pill to swallow. Models so a great job at identifying threats at long leads, that’s their key area of improvement. Close in we still have our struggles with difficult set ups Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IUsedToHateCold Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 My prediction: it’s going to be a lot like last storm with the same winners and losers 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 Just now, Wonderdog said: The way it's going we might be lucky to get 4 brother. Yeah what can you do. I actually failed to see how all or nothing and delicate this set up was. Just extra painful when it collapses really fast like the CMC. 15 to 0. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighStakes Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 Just now, psuhoffman said: 2” here I have closer to 4 as a memory. Check your records lol. Pretty sure Westminster got 6. That's how close the good snow was. As late as that morning we weren't sure we would see anything. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rjvanals Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 Even if this storm trends to what we all fear, it was still a great long range call by @psuhoffmanto identify this as a threat window 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 2 minutes ago, rjvanals said: Even if this storm trends to what we all fear, it was still a great long range call by @psuhoffmanto identify this as a threat window If I don’t get 8” I’m banning @psuhoffman to the West Coast forum. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 6 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: 2” here This is accurate. Westminster didn’t get 6” to my knowledge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dailylurker Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 Just now, ravensrule said: If I don’t get 8” I’m banning @psuhoffman to the West Coast forum. Yup. And I'm taking away his snow whisperer status. It will become snow farter. Or fringe master psu lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
konksw Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 It makes it all the more amazing how 2016 was identified so early by the models and then they never let go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 I’ll get this out of the way its time for wholesale admission that 53 is and has been right. Models are crapshoot guesswork show all possible outcomes . Now here’s the solution -Stop using them. Dont pay for them. Contact the providers and demand improvement. Loss of income may get some attention The NHC does not do this crap. They derive a solution and try and stick with it rather than presenting 30 different outcomes 6 hours later. They have the science and tools . They likely have the far best funding also I cannot possibly imagine how the current mode of patchwork guesswork cover all bases is acceptable. 2 2 2 1 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 Anyone remember the original PSUhoffman storm? So much fun when the changeover brought insane rates and thundersnow out the ass 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 13 minutes ago, WVclimo said: 6Z Euro cut back here also. Up our way it seems like a complete shut out or something similar to last Tuesday with 2" over 18 hours or so lol If that's the case no thanks. And the way the long range looks I'm ready to move on to Spring. Maybe better luck next Winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 3 minutes ago, rjvanals said: Even if this storm trends to what we all fear, it was still a great long range call by @psuhoffmanto identify this as a threat window And it was fun to track. Randy’s “folks”with shocked Beethoven was something I will never forget. One of the best times ever on this board. Nothing lasts forever good or bad. Something else will come along. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dailylurker Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 Just now, konksw said: It makes it all the more amazing how 2016 was identified so early by the models and then they never let go. That was wild. A week before the storm the pattern hunters were all over it. It was 11pm and the gfs dropped a bomb. Every model picked it up that night. It didn't waver one mile for a week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buffalo Transplant Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JenkinsJinkies Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 Is this going to be a log book event? A discussion no one wants to have event? Or is it just Niña being a Niña and our turn will come in a better ENSO state should this PDO improvement stick? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
annapolismike Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 I don't say much here because I do not know much. But I have been lurking around for years and I appreciate the commentary from those who have a clue what they are saying. They could be commenting from Utah, but if they have something relevant to add....should not be given grief for not being in the area. Whining about posters from just over the Mason Dixon line is stupid and risks pushing good posters out. I can't imagine this place without @psuhoffman. That out of my system, this storm sucks...yet it may well end up being the best of the season for those east of I95 and south of BWI when it all shakes out. I feel for those in Northern MD and SE PA who have been screwed this season, but many times you are basking in fluff while Annapolis gets sleet. Such is our climo. 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 2 minutes ago, BristowWx said: And it was fun to track. Randy’s “folks”with shocked Beethoven was something I will never forget. One of the best times ever on this board. Nothing lasts forever good or bad. Something else will come along. Those types of runs during big dog tracking and then rejoicing during the first flakes when radar looks sick or when the big rates start are my 3 favorites 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILMRoss Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 hi. i normally hang around the southern forums but i check in here every now and then. modeling consensus collapse sucks but wanted to chime in and say that the southern storms this year fit this exact same script. things get flat and dry around the twilight of the CAMs range before somehow, someway, something trends favorably to double qpf in the northern fringes, whether its a sharper wave or favorable northern stream tweaks. generally i feel uneasy in richmond because i'm watching my once-in-a-decade snow slip through my fingers, but the script from other storms this years gives me a backstop. not trying to wishcast, just providing optimism. i recognize that this is an event that yall score if i score- rooting for us 10 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 2 minutes ago, dailylurker said: That was wild. A week before the storm the pattern hunters were all over it. It was 11pm and the gfs dropped a bomb. Every model picked it up that night. It didn't waver one mile for a week. Okay now we’re exaggerating a little bit. There were a few “scare runs” south and nyc wasn’t in the goods until late in the game. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 1 hour ago, Weather Will said: WB 12K NAM looks good to me. The NAM is doing what I envisioned. Focused more on the TN valley wave along the arctic boundary. Just wish it was showing on the better models too. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rjvanals Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 2 minutes ago, BristowWx said: And it was fun to track. Randy’s “folks”with shocked Beethoven was something I will never forget. One of the best times ever on this board. Nothing lasts forever good or bad. Something else will come along. As I've gotten older the tracking and excitement for the next model run is 80% of the fun with having it actually snow being a great bonus. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dailylurker Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 Just now, DDweatherman said: Okay now we’re exaggerating a little bit. There were a few “scare runs” south and nyc wasn’t in the goods until late in the game. I honestly don't remember that. I remember one run where it slipped south like 20 miles and everyone freaked out. Next run used totals and we got the 20 miles back lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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