T. August Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Also if everyone just on the PA side of the line up here goes up to the other forum myself and many of the northern MD contingent might follow because our climo is probably more similar to there and if we no longer have anyone in here to commiserate with or have our local meso discussions in a storm then it might make more sense to be with them. I’d probably end up splitting my time more. Right now the PA forum is more central PA and the right along the PA line people are in here with us. We have that one guy from Richmond already in here, I say include Jersey at this point. It can’t be worse. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_warlock Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 Well im out. Not gonna torture myself hoping for a miracle. See u all in about a week after this garbage storm is overwith! ! 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 13 minutes ago, BristowWx said: 7 inches is not what I expected based on that pbp. 0.7 maybe. 24 hr QPF 0.5" line is south of DC and significantly worse than 6z...I'd be surprised if that much snow falls. The system gets going too late. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 1 minute ago, WxUSAF said: Something like this makes more sense if you mostly have a storm that’s being forced by the southern wave and confluence is preventing it from pushing too far north. Frankly looks more like our other events this year. Storm develops in the plains and mostly tracks east without gaining a ton of latitude. Yeah and our victory path to 6”+ may come via the SS wave itself. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 Just now, 87storms said: 24 hr QPF 0.5" line is south of DC and significantly worse than 6z...I'd be surprised if that much snow falls. The system gets going too late. Ratios would be legit better than usual if it played out that way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dailylurker Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 Welp, time to talk about drugs again. Lol 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 3 hours ago, Terpeast said: To hit climo, I would need at least 3” I need 18” 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 Just now, DDweatherman said: Yeah and our victory path to 6”+ may come via the SS wave itself. At the rate we’re going, seems quite possible. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 5 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Also if everyone just on the PA side of the line up here goes up to the other forum myself and many of the northern MD contingent might follow because our climo is probably more similar to there and if we no longer have anyone in here to commiserate with or have our local meso discussions in a storm then it might make more sense to be with them. I’d probably end up splitting my time more. Right now the PA forum is more central PA and the right along the PA line people are in here with us. I’m a Marylander. Born and raised there. Just cause I live walking distance to MD now temporarily, cause I’ll be back in Maryland by fall, I’m not going to change forums lol. 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baltosquid Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 There's technically more room in front at 72 but it's slightly faster than 06z so probably a wash in terms of how much it can take advantage and salvage a thump. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 Just now, WxUSAF said: Ratios would be legit better than usual if it played out that way. Whoever gets .5” QPF could definitely score 8-10 in this one. If you’re in .25” you might get better than 10-1 but subsidence plays a factor on the edges and worse snow growth as well. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rvarookie Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 8 minutes ago, ravensrule said: Patience, it will come. Told my wife same thing last night Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 Just now, baltosquid said: There's technically more room in front at 72 but it's slightly faster than 06z so probably a wash in terms of how much it can take advantage and salvage a thump. It’s a 3 day weekend squid, we might as well keep looking and see if we can develop an alternative path to victory. I’ll be here with ya 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 Just now, Rvarookie said: Told my wife same thing last night But you’re in Richmond, so you might have been lying. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 3 hours ago, mitchnick said: 6z AI is turning it into a hybrid Miller B of sorts. It does give snow to the forum with the most east. Eastern shore does best, of course, but it's hard to figure qpf west of the Bay on the Euro site. The 0z gave mby .2" and south of Baltimore .5" with more south and east. This run looks to do a little better, but you'll need to wait for TT to get more exact qpf. Unfortunately, it hooks the meat of the storm around the MA and is now hitting ENE. That actually makes more sense given the h5. Could see a double wave miller b type setup. At least I understand that. I hate being confused by guidance that doesn’t match anything I’ve ever seen before. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mob1 Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 Canadian is a complete shutout Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 1 minute ago, Rvarookie said: Told my wife same thing last night The problem is, she is still waiting. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 Just now, mob1 said: Canadian is a complete shutout Already knew that based on rgem 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baltosquid Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 Yeah it is indeed just RGEM 12z essentially. DC northward shutout, ignoring any snow tv that might come in behind. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 So far Cmc and Icon are nothing or next to nothing. Gfs is ok but less than 6z. Not much for Northerners. Hard to beleive after the runs from Thursday,Friday and early Saturday. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 Just now, Chris78 said: So far Cmc and Icon are nothing or next to nothing. Gfs is ok but less than 6z. Not much for Northerners. Hard to beleive after the runs from Thursday,Friday and early Saturday. It’s going to change again. Enjoy the ride. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 Models this winter be like Fooled you once, shame on me Fooled you twice, shame on you Fooled you 10 times, wtf are you smokin? 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 Pinning my hopes and dreams on the Nam is smart right? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 Just now, ravensrule said: It’s going to change again. Enjoy the ride. Believe it or not, I kinda think so too. Like PSU said, I could see a miller b type solution popping up this aftn/tonight. Really unusual h5 evolution 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WVclimo Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 3 minutes ago, Chris78 said: So far Cmc and Icon are nothing or next to nothing. Gfs is ok but less than 6z. Not much for Northerners. Hard to beleive after the runs from Thursday,Friday and early Saturday. 6Z Euro cut back here also. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Junkie Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 8 minutes ago, winter_warlock said: Well im out. Not gonna torture myself hoping for a miracle. See u all in about a week after this garbage storm is overwith! ! See you for next model runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighStakes Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 1 minute ago, Chris78 said: So far Cmc and Icon are nothing or next to nothing. Gfs is ok but less than 6z. Not much for Northerners. Hard to beleive after the runs from Thursday,Friday and early Saturday. This whole has thing has really deterioted fast. Being that we're heading into the stretch run of the season and we have an anomalous cold airmass to work with makes it sting more. 4-6 inches of cold powder sounds really good. I'm all in til the end and we're still 72 hours out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
konksw Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 After this we transition to cherry blossom watch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 17 minutes ago, BristowWx said: 7 inches is not what I expected based on that pbp. 0.7 maybe. The way it's going we might be lucky to get 4 brother. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dailylurker Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 2 minutes ago, DDweatherman said: Believe it or not, I kinda think so too. Like PSU said, I could see a miller b type solution popping up this aftn/tonight. Really unusual h5 evolution I have a feeling were going to see an entirely different setup as we near. Not the massive blizzard look but sometimes more climo (4-8). PSU might be hinting at something like that. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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