DDweatherman Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 I think at this point, it’s simple what we want, the Nam type solution where WAA precip comes in north and hot thanks to weaker confluence and the SS vort can climb a bit Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baltosquid Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 There's just no big time interaction. Nothing to initiate a phase. Just kind of rides up where it can and looks set to shunt off without much of a coastal effect. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 On 2/16/2025 at 3:54 PM, NorthArlington101 said: Gonna be fairly similar to 06z I think - maybe a bit worse Expand It's a sheared out mess. The models have shown their hand. Gotta hope for a 4-6" event at this point. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 @NorthArlington101 is almost always associated with bad news. I vote we keep him out of the thread for a bit and try to change the vibes. Sorry NA, nothing personal bud. 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
konksw Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 On 2/16/2025 at 3:41 PM, DDweatherman said: This winter of decent snow but constant missed potential but mostly wall to wall cold may result in speeding up my plan to move to Florida Expand I’m not sure why anyone would do that to themselves. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 I’ll post the Kuchera because it’s better - now I’ll dip out to my bottomless brunch. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 Was worried about this a few days ago, extremely fragile set up and easy to fail. We haven’t done well historically in Niña’s with big amplified phase events. That plus the seasonal trend of deamplificafion of shortwaves made this an uphill battle to hold onto the big solutions at d5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baltosquid Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 It's not gonna be a huge slip but yeah there's just nothing exciting happening at h5 like we were seeing in the big runs. As long as that's the case, there's just no way for it to climb up the coast, let alone tuck. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowenOutThere Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 We just can't find a positive trend with the H5 interaction out west to save our lives for the past 4 cycles Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IronTy Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 I'll take my 8" and after we can flip to spring. Bring on the 70s. 3 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 On 2/16/2025 at 3:58 PM, SnowenOutThere said: We just can't find a positive trend with the H5 interaction out west to save our lives for the past 4 cycles Expand Patience, it will come. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 Still a pretty healthy WAA shield with cold temps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 On 2/16/2025 at 3:57 PM, NorthArlington101 said: I’ll post the Kuchera because it’s better - now I’ll dip out to my bottomless brunch. Expand Note to readers. This isn’t that bad verbatim. I’m more concerned what the h5 look upstairs is headed towards vs what the run actually showed for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WVclimo Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 On 2/16/2025 at 3:57 PM, NorthArlington101 said: I’ll post the Kuchera because it’s better then dip out to my bottomless brunch. Expand 7 inches is not what I expected based on that pbp. 0.7 maybe. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 On 2/16/2025 at 3:59 PM, SomeguyfromTakomaPark said: Still a pretty healthy WAA shield with cold temps. Expand This is where we have a chance to still score a warning level event. Ratios will be good and whoever is in the juice will have little to no problem producing dendrites thanks to solid fgen from a good vort & moisture transport from a s/s gulf interaction. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 On 2/16/2025 at 3:59 PM, WVclimo said: Expand All in all fairly consistent last 3 runs from the GFS. This as the final outcome would be a win still for DC… maybe less for the NW/NE folks who have struggled this year. 6” of cold powder is nothing to scoff at. Fingers crossed. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baltosquid Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 Early on, don't think the Canadian looks good either. Energy is a tad faster through 42 and the TPV looks pretty comfortably gapped from the storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowenOutThere Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 On 2/16/2025 at 3:59 PM, ravensrule said: Patience, it will come. Expand Oh, I'm not upset with this outcome because 7 inches is a lot (insert joke here) but its just a little frustrating to constantly see the phase become weaker. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 On 2/16/2025 at 12:14 PM, mappy said: FWIW, if we tell TSSN to go, Mitch would need to follow. They’re from the same local. Choose your battles wisely. Expand Also if everyone just on the PA side of the line up here goes up to the other forum myself and many of the northern MD contingent might follow because our climo is probably more similar to there and if we no longer have anyone in here to commiserate with or have our local meso discussions in a storm then it might make more sense to be with them. I’d probably end up splitting my time more. Right now the PA forum is more central PA and the right along the PA line people are in here with us. 9 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 On 2/16/2025 at 3:57 PM, NorthArlington101 said: I’ll post the Kuchera because it’s better - now I’ll dip out to my bottomless brunch. Expand If you don’t wear some bottoms to brunch, that’s going to be one hell of a scene. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowenOutThere Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 On 2/16/2025 at 4:01 PM, psuhoffman said: Also if everyone just on the PA side of the line up here goes up to the other forum myself and many of the northern MD contingent might follow because our climo is probably more similar to there and if we no longer have anyone in here to commiserate with or have our local meso discussions in a storm then it might make more sense to be with them. I’d probably end up splitting my time more. Right now the PA forum is more central PA and the right along the PA line people are in here with us. Expand I know we're all focused on this threat window (for good reason), but has the pattern collapsed afterwards or do we have any more chances? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baltosquid Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 One potential positive on the CMC is the TPV isn't pressing as hard in the northeast but there's still nothing really interesting happening out west so I don't think it's gonna help much Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 On 2/16/2025 at 4:01 PM, psuhoffman said: Also if everyone just on the PA side of the line up here goes up to the other forum myself and many of the northern MD contingent might follow because our climo is probably more similar to there and if we no longer have anyone in here to commiserate with or have our local meso discussions in a storm then it might make more sense to be with them. I’d probably end up splitting my time more. Right now the PA forum is more central PA and the right along the PA line people are in here with us. Expand I try to spend some split time in there for obs during the storms and a little bit during tracking. This is just a much busier forum and a more consolidated geography. Yes, the climo for me is not all that dissimilar to state college (normally at least) compared to say Arlington or Annapolis. But this is where my online weather love kicked off 15+ years ago. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 On 2/16/2025 at 4:00 PM, baltosquid said: Early on, don't think the Canadian looks good either. Energy is a tad faster through 42 and the TPV looks pretty comfortably gapped from the storm. Expand The Rgem was trash so we already know cmc will be 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mdhokie Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 On 2/16/2025 at 3:59 PM, BristowWx said: 7 inches is not what I expected based on that pbp. 0.7 maybe. Expand i dont trust the kooch and probably at least an inch or so of virga. 3-6" would be a good call for i-66 through DC. 2-4" up by Baltimore. Short pump probably hits double digits, UGH. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
konksw Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 On 2/16/2025 at 4:02 PM, SnowenOutThere said: I know we're all focused on this threat window (for good reason), but has the pattern collapsed afterwards or do we have any more chances? Expand 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 On 2/16/2025 at 4:01 PM, psuhoffman said: Also if everyone just on the PA side of the line up here goes up to the other forum myself and many of the northern MD contingent might follow because our climo is probably more similar to there and if we no longer have anyone in here to commiserate with or have our local meso discussions in a storm then it might make more sense to be with them. I’d probably end up splitting my time more. Right now the PA forum is more central PA and the right along the PA line people are in here with us. Expand Usually we save the semi-annual kicking out the PAers discussion after a storm then do well in while DC rains… why are we having it now, lol 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 On 2/16/2025 at 4:03 PM, baltosquid said: One potential positive on the CMC is the TPV isn't pressing as hard in the northeast but there's still nothing really interesting happening out west so I don't think it's gonna help much Expand I think we just need to start looking at the confluence and maybe seeing if the s/s wave can climb a bit more with strong WAA precip. In that event, separation of the streams isn’t the focus Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 Something like this makes more sense if you mostly have a storm that’s being forced by the southern wave and confluence is preventing it from pushing too far north. Frankly looks more like our other events this year. Storm develops in the plains and mostly tracks east without gaining a ton of latitude. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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