psuhoffman Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 5 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: I know u didn't ask me, but it does get N and isn't suppressed. The problem is the kicker pushes it all too far east before it can begin the move to the N. At least that's the way I am seeing it. Up top looks fine....weakening block. 50/50 progressing along and confluence where we like it. I am convinced that vigorous kicker is the culprit. Without that kicker it comes N sooner. Eta: kicker, not licker. Fixed typo stupid screen protector hmmm, not dismissing this...but for the kicker to have that kind of impact...doesn't it need to impact the H5 which drives the flow? And in that case I should see other examples that looked like this and crushed just SE of us with snow but I don't. But the upper low still tracks to our NW and is plenty to the NW of the surface low not pressing it east...it's just weird to me. The weird part is to have a wave amplified enough to drop those kinds of snow totals down there...but not come north despite the flow being plenty relaxed enough and the confluence to be way up near Canada. That's why you don't see examples of this...for a wave to get "kicked" in that kind of flow it would have to be pretty weak, and a weak wave isn't dropping 1-2 feet of snow anywhere. A wave that is amplifying enough to put down that kind of snow wouldn't just turn east ahead of a cut off upper low back over Ohio and a SW to NE flow all the way to Maine with the 50/50 already to south of Greenland! Make it make sense. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 9 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: I know u didn't ask me, but it does get N and isn't suppressed. The problem is the kicker pushes it all too far east before it can begin the move to the N. At least that's the way I am seeing it. Up top looks fine....weakening block. 50/50 progressing along and confluence where we like it. I am convinced that vigorous kicker is the culprit. Without that kicker it comes N sooner. Eta: kicker, not licker. Fixed typo stupid screen protector @psuhoffman thoughts on ralph's question? because i have the same one/observation on the potential issue. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 1 minute ago, psuhoffman said: hmmm, not dismissing this...but for the kicker to have that kind of impact...doesn't it need to impact the H5 which drives the flow? And in that case I should see other examples that looked like this and crushed just SE of us with snow but I don't. But the upper low still tracks to our NW and is plenty to the NW of the surface low not pressing it east...it's just weird to me. The weird part is to have a wave amplified enough to drop those kinds of snow totals down there...but not come north despite the flow being plenty relaxed enough and the confluence to be way up near Canada. That's why you don't see examples of this...for a wave to get "kicked" in that kind of flow it would have to be pretty weak, and a weak wave isn't dropping 1-2 feet of snow anywhere. A wave that is amplifying enough to put down that kind of snow wouldn't just turn east ahead of a cut off upper low back over Ohio and a SW to NE flow all the way to Maine with the 50/50 already to south of Greenland! Make it make sense. thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 2 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said: I feel like that oughta be on a T-Shirt...and distrubted to everybody here, lol But seriously...what could be the disconnect here? Is a storm just gonna magically defy what's going on at that level? the million dollar question My opinion, most likely answer is the models are wrong and this ends up further NW BUT...every once in a while things just don't behave normally and something really odd happens. This wouldn't be the first time. But 90% of the time when I identify a situation where the models don't align with what history suggests should happen, they adjust to history. The other 10% you just throw your hands up and surrender to the chaos. 4 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 If livestreaming Billy Strings from Asheville and getting baked doesn't fix this, nothing will. Bad news for that richmond guy, even baked me is rooting against him. Everyone else, i hope you jack. 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 1 minute ago, psuhoffman said: the million dollar question My opinion, most likely answer is the models are wrong and this ends up further NW BUT...every once in a while things just don't behave normally and something really odd happens. This wouldn't be the first time. But 90% of the time when I identify a situation where the models don't align with what history suggests should happen, they adjust to history. The other 10% you just throw your hands up and surrender to the chaos. Pulling for you to be right. Generally when see something fhe other way when things look good but the overall pattern doesn't support it your spot on. Hopefully that's the case in a positive way this time. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 5 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: the million dollar question My opinion, most likely answer is the models are wrong and this ends up further NW BUT...every once in a while things just don't behave normally and something really odd happens. This wouldn't be the first time. But 90% of the time when I identify a situation where the models don't align with what history suggests should happen, they adjust to history. The other 10% you just throw your hands up and surrender to the chaos. But even if something odd/bad luck does happen, shouldn't there be something scientifically that you can point to? I mean if we get screwed I'd at least like to know "this happened to do this at the wrong time" or whatever, as opposed to something that can't be explained by the H5 science that you and others know so well. Even all our fails have an explanation of some sort, even if it is just luck...and unexplained fail would be even more maddening. Hopefully the models correct to something that makes more sense! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 1 minute ago, Maestrobjwa said: But even if something odd/bad luck does happen, shouldn't there be something scientifically that you can point to? I mean if we get screwed I'd at least like to know "this happened to do this at the wrong time" or whatever, as opposed to something that can't be explained by the H5 science that you and others know so well. Especially with most of the models/ ensembles trending that way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 10 minutes ago, jayyy said: Is that a kicker system in the Rockies as our storm moves east? The trough moving through out there. Maybe that’s what’s getting in the way of a full blow up? admittedly not great at deciphering 500mb maps it is...except the storm IS blowing up, thats how its putting down so much snow just southeast of us. Like I said...I can buy a SE miss because the wave got flattened out and was just too weak. There are examples of that. There are several in that analog set a page back. But what you don't see in an analog set to this setup is some 10-20" snowstorm to our southeast because that means the wave did amplify, but didn't come north which makes no sense in that flow. Actually back to a point I made 2 days ago...what I see on that H5 map is that the whole focus of this storm should be the wave along the arctic boundary...the one that puts down 12" in Missouri. That is where that H5 says the wave should be and not having that die out in favor of a wave so disconnected with the upper low. A stronger wave in the TN valley would change the whole dynamic on the coast...further north transfer and closer track of the coastal. That H5 track argues a stronger primary into the KY area. And as @Terpeast said actually it argues we have to worry about too much primary and a track north of us just looking at that...I think in this case the 1055 high and cold helps mitigate that threat some. But south? SOUTH? Hope these retorts don't come off hostile, I'm enjoying the dialogue. And if this does fail I better at least learn something from it. But I think the models are missing something here. 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikem81 Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 9 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: hmmm, not dismissing this...but for the kicker to have that kind of impact...doesn't it need to impact the H5 which drives the flow? And in that case I should see other examples that looked like this and crushed just SE of us with snow but I don't. But the upper low still tracks to our NW and is plenty to the NW of the surface low not pressing it east...it's just weird to me. The weird part is to have a wave amplified enough to drop those kinds of snow totals down there...but not come north despite the flow being plenty relaxed enough and the confluence to be way up near Canada. That's why you don't see examples of this...for a wave to get "kicked" in that kind of flow it would have to be pretty weak, and a weak wave isn't dropping 1-2 feet of snow anywhere. A wave that is amplifying enough to put down that kind of snow wouldn't just turn east ahead of a cut off upper low back over Ohio and a SW to NE flow all the way to Maine with the 50/50 already to south of Greenland! Make it make sense. Love your analysis and I check this forum from Long Island to see your posts. What are york thoughts for my area? You seems to think this will trend NW. what are we specifically looking for for the ULL and anything else the next few Runs? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bncho Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 1 minute ago, psuhoffman said: it is...except the storm IS blowing up, thats how its putting down so much snow just southeast of us. Like I said...I can buy a SE miss because the wave got flattened out and was just too weak. There are examples of that. There are several in that analog set a page back. But what you don't see in an analog set to this setup is some 10-20" snowstorm to our southeast because that means the wave did amplify, but didn't come north which makes no sense in that flow. Actually back to a point I made 2 days ago...what I see on that H5 map is that the whole focus of this storm should be the wave along the arctic boundary...the one that puts down 12" in Missouri. That is where that H5 says the wave should be and not having that die out in favor of a wave so disconnected with the upper low. A stronger wave in the TN valley would change the whole dynamic on the coast...further north transfer and closer track of the coastal. That H5 track argues a stronger primary into the KY area. And as @Terpeast said actually it argues we have to worry about too much primary and a track north of us just looking at that...I think in this case the 1055 high and cold helps mitigate that threat some. But south? SOUTH? Hope these retorts don't come off hostile, I'm enjoying the dialogue. And if this does fail I better at least learn something from it. But I think the models are missing something here. Why don't you have a meteorologist tag by your username? Your posts are excellent and I learn everyday from you. 2 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 15 minutes ago, Weather Will said: So what about the high in Indiana nudging the low too far east on the 18Z? Not there on the 0Z tucked low. Maybe...but that just looks like an artifact of a slightly higher pressure generating the H on the map but its really just an extension of the high back in the plains the axis of which is the same as the 0z run. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 10 minutes ago, North Balti Zen said: If livestreaming Billy Strings from Asheville and getting baked doesn't fix this, nothing will. Bad news for that richmond guy, even baked me is rooting against him. Everyone else, i hope you jack. Oh nice billy strings!!! Love that guy. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 7 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said: But even if something odd/bad luck does happen, shouldn't there be something scientifically that you can point to? I mean if we get screwed I'd at least like to know "this happened to do this at the wrong time" or whatever, as opposed to something that can't be explained by the H5 science that you and others know so well. Even all our fails have an explanation of some sort, even if it is just luck...and unexplained fail would be even more maddening. Hopefully the models correct to something that makes more sense! There will be, but it could be a combination of multiple subtle variables that act upon the outcome in a atypical way but are not easily identifiable. What we call chaos is not REALLY chaos, its just when an action is caused by something we don't have the ability to detect or comprehend. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 @psuhoffman I feel like this specific storm feels overly convoluted. If I’m understanding correctly does the kicker not affect the WAA as much for areas in the southern forum, thus not having to rely on the coastal blowing up or am I misinterpreting this? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Reilly Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 32 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: I know I am beating a dead horse some here, I'm sorry, but do me a favor...humor me here... @Terpeast @Bob Chill @CAPE @WxUSAF @brooklynwx99 Just step back and look at this... (18z EPS) and tell me...is "oh no that might get suppressed" really what pops into your head? What am I missing? Todays storm to get the hell out of the way to allow heights to rise along the southeast east coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 8 minutes ago, mikem81 said: Love your analysis and I check this forum from Long Island to see your posts. What are york thoughts for my area? You seems to think this will trend NW. what are we specifically looking for for the ULL and anything else the next few Runs? You would benefit from what I am talking about also. There are very few examples of DC getting crushed with a wave of this type and NYC missing out completely. The runs that were better for us were better for you also. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 8 minutes ago, bncho said: Why don't you have a meteorologist tag by your username? Your posts are excellent and I learn everyday from you. Because I decided not to finish my meteorology degree and go into education instead. I don't regret that choice. I loved my time in the classroom. Won a debate state championship. And I can do this on the side. 11 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 it is...except the storm IS blowing up, thats how its putting down so much snow just southeast of us. Like I said...I can buy a SE miss because the wave got flattened out and was just too weak. There are examples of that. There are several in that analog set a page back. But what you don't see in an analog set to this setup is some 10-20" snowstorm to our southeast because that means the wave did amplify, but didn't come north which makes no sense in that flow. Actually back to a point I made 2 days ago...what I see on that H5 map is that the whole focus of this storm should be the wave along the arctic boundary...the one that puts down 12" in Missouri. That is where that H5 says the wave should be and not having that die out in favor of a wave so disconnected with the upper low. A stronger wave in the TN valley would change the whole dynamic on the coast...further north transfer and closer track of the coastal. That H5 track argues a stronger primary into the KY area. And as [mention=2515]Terpeast[/mention] said actually it argues we have to worry about too much primary and a track north of us just looking at that...I think in this case the 1055 high and cold helps mitigate that threat some. But south? SOUTH? Hope these retorts don't come off hostile, I'm enjoying the dialogue. And if this does fail I better at least learn something from it. But I think the models are missing something here. Doesn’t come off hostile at all. I’m trying to learn, so I appreciate your insight 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wasnow215 Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 14 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: the million dollar question My opinion, most likely answer is the models are wrong and this ends up further NW BUT...every once in a while things just don't behave normally and something really odd happens. This wouldn't be the first time. But 90% of the time when I identify a situation where the models don't align with what history suggests should happen, they adjust to history. The other 10% you just throw your hands up and surrender to the chaos. What about Feb 10-11 1983? Big from Richmond through NE? Different setup? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 Not sure where to post this.. District of Columbia-Frederick MD-Carroll-Northern Baltimore- Cecil-Southern Baltimore-Prince Georges-Anne Arundel-Charles-St. Marys-Calvert-Northwest Montgomery-Central and Southeast Montgomery-Northwest Howard-Central and Southeast Howard- Northwest Harford-Southeast Harford-Rappahannock-Fairfax- Arlington/Falls Church/Alexandria-Northern Fauquier-Western Loudoun-Eastern Loudoun-Northwest Prince William-Central and Southeast Prince William/Manassas/Manassas Park- 841 PM EST Sat Feb 15 2025 ...HIGH WIND WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM TO 10 PM EST SUNDAY... * WHAT...West winds 20 to 30 mph with gusts of 50 to 60 mph expected. * WHERE...The District of Columbia, central, north central, northeast, northern, and southern Maryland, and northern and northwest Virginia. * WHEN...From 10 AM to 10 PM EST Sunday. * IMPACTS...Damaging winds will blow down trees and power lines. Widespread power outages are expected. Travel will be difficult, especially for high profile vehicles 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikem81 Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 5 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: You would benefit from what I am talking about also. There are very few examples of DC getting crushed with a wave of this type and NYC missing out completely. The runs that were better for us were better for you also. Thanks. What are we looking for over the next runs for clues on where this ends up? Is it really the position of the ULL that determines this Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 Latest Natty blend. Note there is zero indication of a miss to the SE. Not sure exactly why/how that has become a point of discussion. 17 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 4 minutes ago, Weather Will said: Not sure where to post this.. District of Columbia-Frederick MD-Carroll-Northern Baltimore- Cecil-Southern Baltimore-Prince Georges-Anne Arundel-Charles-St. Marys-Calvert-Northwest Montgomery-Central and Southeast Montgomery-Northwest Howard-Central and Southeast Howard- Northwest Harford-Southeast Harford-Rappahannock-Fairfax- Arlington/Falls Church/Alexandria-Northern Fauquier-Western Loudoun-Eastern Loudoun-Northwest Prince William-Central and Southeast Prince William/Manassas/Manassas Park- 841 PM EST Sat Feb 15 2025 ...HIGH WIND WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM TO 10 PM EST SUNDAY... * WHAT...West winds 20 to 30 mph with gusts of 50 to 60 mph expected. * WHERE...The District of Columbia, central, north central, northeast, northern, and southern Maryland, and northern and northwest Virginia. * WHEN...From 10 AM to 10 PM EST Sunday. * IMPACTS...Damaging winds will blow down trees and power lines. Widespread power outages are expected. Travel will be difficult, especially for high profile vehicles Perhaps in the Dsicobs thread? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 28 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: hmmm, not dismissing this...but for the kicker to have that kind of impact...doesn't it need to impact the H5 which drives the flow? And in that case I should see other examples that looked like this and crushed just SE of us with snow but I don't. But the upper low still tracks to our NW and is plenty to the NW of the surface low not pressing it east...it's just weird to me. The weird part is to have a wave amplified enough to drop those kinds of snow totals down there...but not come north despite the flow being plenty relaxed enough and the confluence to be way up near Canada. That's why you don't see examples of this...for a wave to get "kicked" in that kind of flow it would have to be pretty weak, and a weak wave isn't dropping 1-2 feet of snow anywhere. A wave that is amplifying enough to put down that kind of snow wouldn't just turn east ahead of a cut off upper low back over Ohio and a SW to NE flow all the way to Maine with the 50/50 already to south of Greenland! Make it make sense. Guidance is either going to come around and support your thoughts over the coming few days OR you are going to refer to your log and insert a new chapter or section about more unprecedented storm behavior in this modern clime. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 Latest Natty blend. Note there is zero indication of a miss to the SE. Not sure exactly why/how that has become a point of discussion.Agreed. Unfortunately, people saw 24” clown maps and anything less than that is a fail now. Verbatim the blend is a warning event for 95% of us 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikem81 Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 1 minute ago, CAPE said: Latest Natty blend. Note there is zero indication of a miss to the SE. Not sure exactly why/how that has become a point of discussion. Some snow is todays Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 Some snow is todays Not really. Majority of folks got 0 accumulation Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 two gummies in, sailing, and the lyrics from this Strings jaunt that just played seem on point for this forum/thread/storm threat... Quote Well the night we met, I thought you were the one Yes and when you left, I nearly came undone There's a million miles to go, at the end I still won't know What I did to ever send you on the run Now the memories just keep flyin' round me now And I'm travelin' faster than the speed of sound It's the bigger I stand tall, then the harder I might fall On the day my vices lay me in the ground 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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