frd Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 On 2/15/2025 at 11:31 PM, psuhoffman said: that storm also had a wave on the arctic boundary that helped draw it up or it would have been way OTS had it focused on the coastal front. Same with 1996. If you amplify the wave a bit more along the arctic front that shallow cold south of the arctic boundary can be overcome really easy. Watch how fast that boundary can rocket NW if you amplify a wave along the boundary just a little. God knows we've seen that kill us 10000 times, why can't it help us once? When I look at the H5 track I don't see a suppressed look...usually the heaviest snow ends up close to the base of the H5 track northward and that is coming across out our latitude. It's rare to see a big snowstorm hit Richmond and Ocean City from a cut off H5 low that tracks through Ohio and PA. Expand Could certainly see an ideal capture scenario tomorrow, or even Monday with a large region wide MECS with some areas HECS. It would be silly to think the GFS is correct, or any other model for that fact this far out. We all know we are dealing with big time potential, just need that match to time things correctly for snow lovers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 On 2/15/2025 at 11:45 PM, Ralph Wiggum said: I thought we lost the HECS as the high-end potential for this one? Expand richmond says hold my DT 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 On 2/15/2025 at 11:36 PM, Stormchaserchuck1 said: Richmond's 20 greatest snowstorm days since 1948, based on the Feb 20 date. Pretty close to the current projected pattern.. 3 troughs Pacific-US-Atlantic around a -NAO, ridge extending into the Hudson Bay.. That difference off the West coast (ridge vs trough) could be a reason why it will be a flatter storm, vs a more S->N amped one. Expand Thought we had a +NAO, LOL nevermind I don't want that debate again. But... look where the height anomalies in the east are centered on the Richmond storms...down near Atlanta. They are coming across at our latitude this time. This fits the DC composite way more than the SE snowstorms one. If anything...its closer to the NYC composite of all the ones honestly! 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 On 2/15/2025 at 11:49 PM, psuhoffman said: Thought we had a +NAO, LOL nevermind I don't want that debate again. But... look where the height anomalies in the east are centered on the Richmond storms...down near Atlanta. They are coming across at our latitude this time. This fits the DC composite way more than the SE snowstorms one. If anything...its closer to the NYC composite of all the ones honestly! Expand After looking at composites of top snowstorms, it's close enough... but you can see that we still don't have a New Foundland Low though.. it's 750 miles away. I just don't think we are going to get a deep/bomb scenario like models are real close to showing. Yeah, the H5 is a little north of Richmond. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DarkSharkWX Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 v day 2007, but also some of the higher end 80s storms 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 Still haven’t seen anything that would make me feel on edge for the setup. I keep mentioning this….this is a delicate setup with the phasing and eventual interaction between the N/S vortex and the S/S wave that seems fairly robust considering the 5H anomalies. I don’t think some here understand how close some of these close runs were to blowing up into something greater. Yes, there is a chance the phase gets messy and things don’t turn as meridional as we want them to be, but the trend is for a significant storm to be present in-of ORF and the question becomes, “Where does it go from there?” Someone at this rate is going to get hit really good. The finer details and cohesion of guidance is still tbd. Don’t stress on every single model run. It is terrible for your health. 34 3 1 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 On 2/15/2025 at 11:52 PM, MillvilleWx said: Still haven’t seen anything that would make me feel on edge for the setup. I keep mentioning this….this is a delicate setup with the phasing and eventual interaction between the N/S vortex and the S/S wave that seems fairly robust considering the 5H anomalies. I don’t think some here understand how close some of these close runs were to blowing up into something greater. Yes, there is a chance the phase gets messy and things don’t turn as meridional as we want them to be, but the trend is for a significant storm to be present in-of ORF and the question becomes, “Where does it go from there?” Someone at this rate is going to get hit really good. The finer details and cohesion of guidance is still tbd. Don’t stress on every single model run. It is terrible for your health. Expand Finally someone with sanity. Preach. 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 Hmmm who to follow... PSUs gut Chucks gut the models output or casanovaweatherdude whose area is looking at 20"???? Hmmm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 On 2/15/2025 at 11:50 PM, Stormchaserchuck1 said: After looking at composites of top snowstorms, it's close enough... but you can see that we still don't have a New Foundland Low though.. it's 750 miles away. I just don't think we are going to get a deep/bomb scenario like models are real close to showing. Yeah, the H5 is a little north of Richmond. Expand Yes but that's why I said most, not all, but most of the analogs I saw to this storm the bigger issue was a NW track not SE. The 50/50 low is really far east off the playing field here not a suppressive factor like in the examples I looked at of big snowstorms for Richmond to the Delmarva. I honestly went looking to see if this fit a close miss to our SE so I could "prepare" myself if that was how this is going to go down...and that isn't what I found. I found no examples of a storm that Jacked that area with this look. 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 I am going to get destroyed for saying this but the 18z euro was a better run. The kicker was better..the 500mb was better...consolidated and not as stretchy...it was just a hair off in the phasing 17 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 I think we need the bleeding to stop by getting 2 or 3 runs to hold steady, then hope the north trend begins to put the forum back where we were yesterday and Thursday with the primo runs. 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bncho Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 On 2/15/2025 at 11:56 PM, Ji said: I am going to get destroyed for saying this but the 18z euro was a better run. The kicker was better..the 500mb was better...it was just a hair off in the phasing the ki Expand you are NOT ji. who the hell are you 1 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 On 2/15/2025 at 11:56 PM, Ji said: I am going to get destroyed for saying this but the 18z euro was a better run. The kicker was better..the 500mb was better...it was just a hair off in the phasing the ki Expand I'm kinda glad you said it because I just unleashed a tirade and I didn't want it to come off as self serving or that I've lost my mind but I saw the same thing. 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 Hmmm.... I see I should have prayed for snow rather than world peace... 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 On 2/15/2025 at 11:59 PM, Weather Will said: Hmmm.... I see I should have prayed for snow rather than world peace... Expand Of course you should of. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 On 2/15/2025 at 11:59 PM, Weather Will said: Hmmm.... I see I should have prayed for snow rather than world peace... Expand World peace? You saw too many reruns of Groundhog Day, Groundhog Day, Gro... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 On 2/15/2025 at 11:51 PM, DarkSharkWX said: v day 2007, but also some of the higher end 80s storms Expand That analog list kind of backs up my point. There are a few SE misses...but because they were really weak sauce waves not some 16" snowstorm. The March 2016 storm for example...yea it missed because the wave was a pathetic pos that didn't give anyone more than 2-4". Some of the Spring storms are hard to apply because they happened after the thermals had deteriorated such that there isn't much we can take from what would have happened in a colder regime. The rest were either DMV area Jacks or storms that Jacked just north of us. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 On 2/15/2025 at 11:57 PM, mitchnick said: I think we need the bleeding to stop by getting 2 or 3 runs to hold steady, then hope the north trend begins to put the forum back where we were yesterday and Thursday with the primo runs. Expand Agreed. For areas north of dca. Confluence has been trending stronger Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 On 2/15/2025 at 11:56 PM, psuhoffman said: Yes but that's why I said most, not all, but most of the analogs I saw to this storm the bigger issue was a NW track not SE. The 50/50 low is really far east off the playing field here not a suppressive factor like in the examples I looked at of big snowstorms for Richmond to the Delmarva. I honestly went looking to see if this fit a close miss to our SE so I could "prepare" myself if that was how this is going to go down...and that isn't what I found. I found no examples of a storm that Jacked that area with this look. Expand Going down with the ship as any respectable captain would. I admire this! Keep sailing high and proud on the S.S. PSU2. Regardless how it transpires you win....you called this 4+ weeks ago. Much respect sir. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 On 2/15/2025 at 11:56 PM, Ji said: I am going to get destroyed for saying this but the 18z euro was a better run. The kicker was better..the 500mb was better...consolidated and not as stretchy...it was just a hair off in the phasing Expand Good post... @Ji? 2 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 On 2/15/2025 at 11:56 PM, Ji said: I am going to get destroyed for saying this but the 18z euro was a better run. The kicker was better..the 500mb was better...consolidated and not as stretchy...it was just a hair off in the phasing Expand The only reason you are going to get destroyed is because you post is positive in nature. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wasnow215 Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 Fascinating reads last couple pages for sure. @psuhoffmanHow bout comps where RVA and DCA get comparable snow totals where both get double digit snows? How many of those? BTW was at the SB parade yesterday. Such a great day! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LeesburgWx Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 @psuhoffman has me putting on a parachute for my cliff jump 4 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 On 2/15/2025 at 11:25 PM, Wonderdog said: The GFS has been the last holduout for a week and as of now, still is. Still time but..... Expand That 975 is way off ORF on the Euro. We are 2 ticks away from scattered snow showers. I feel less good. Talk to me dog. 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cbmclean Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 On 2/16/2025 at 12:04 AM, Ralph Wiggum said: Going down with the ship as any respectable captain would. I admire this! Keep sailing high and proud on the S.S. PSU2. Regardless how it transpires you win....you called this 4+ weeks ago. Much respect sir. Expand 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eucker Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 On 2/15/2025 at 11:29 PM, 300 square feet said: Still happy with that. Plenty of time to nudge north. This - feel good about it being a little South right now 4 days out… 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 So… what did I miss? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bncho Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 On 2/16/2025 at 12:24 AM, Terpeast said: So… what did I miss? Expand Ji's going through his mid-life identity crisis and PSU is trying to put a trampoline at the bottom of a large cliff. 1 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 2 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 On 2/15/2025 at 11:41 PM, psuhoffman said: Add this to my rant above... apparently the computers agree with me that this pattern doesn't align with a SE miss... again, open to evidence why I'm missing something here. Really I am Expand A 'SE miss' isn't the same as places relatively further SE forecast to get somewhat higher amounts of snow, which is what the preponderance of current guidance is depicting. Ofc current guidance may not be completely correct about that and some adjustment NW can still occur. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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