mitchnick Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 As the Euro comes out, all I'll be looking at is the tpv. Does it stay intact well and does it lag behind vs 12z are going to predict the outcome vs 12z imho. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LeesburgWx Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 I do feel like the past 48 hours has had better 00z and 12z runs vs 06z and 18z. Maybe the trend continues tonight 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bncho Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 don't get me wrong... its a good run but its more south. 3 2 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 @usedtobe loves the 18z Euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 36 minutes ago, winter_warlock said: Miss?? Cause of 1 gfs run?? The GFS has been the last holduout for a week and as of now, still is. Still time but..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 8 minutes ago, Ji said: psu was saying that right? Been thinking about his post...so if the flow isn't suppressive...what is causing what we're seeing? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paxpatriot Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 M/D crew on the ledge after those 18z runs. We’ve seen this episode before, lol. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 975 right there, we’re real close. That low is way stronger this run. 0z will definitely be telling 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IronTy Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 Euro looks good to me, solid swath. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 4 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 00z will be telling Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 3 minutes ago, bncho said: don't get me wrong... its a good run but its more south. Euro still keeps the HECS scenario in play. Has there ever been a storm with this kind of result, though? A storm that destroyed that specific area? Not one that comes to mind. Usually it’s either a southern slider, a region-wide hit or it’s one of those coastal scrapers in Nina’s that hit the beaches, NYC and NE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
300 square feet Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 Just now, nj2va said: Still happy with that. Plenty of time to nudge north. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 7 minutes ago, bncho said: don't get me wrong... its a good run but its more south. I don't know man...have we ever seen a snowfall distribution like that? A beach blizzard is one thing when it's off the coast of Delaware and hits the lower eastern shore and SoMd, and misses everybody else. But have we ever had a snowstorm where you still had 8-10 inches central/north AND a 20+ inch jack to the south? That seems weird to me but maybe someone can share if it's ever happened like that. Edit: Ninja'd by @osfan24. I see I'm not the only one thinking that, lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 1 hour ago, Ji said: [mention=2304]psuhoffman[/mention] from what you see currently in the data and trends what do you think is the floor for storm? 6 or do we do the 18-2 thing again lol Sent from my SM-A515U using Tapatalk A lot of storms lately have had a relatively small significant snowfall region with unusual sharp cutoffs, which makes going from 12 to nothing more likely when the snow zone shifts 50 miles. This storm will likely have a much larger snowfall zone BUT if we are too close to the NW fringe of it, if this were to take the less amplified solutions...you know the risk. 1 hour ago, DDweatherman said: Then 2/10/10 gave NY retribution and 2/23-2/26 did some more. The retrograde storm as I call it. We thought we had a chance with that one, just didn’t happen. I got 4" from that, then after that and a storm in early March missed Ji said it ruined the winter lol 49 minutes ago, CAPE said: There is a literal wall of Arctic HP to our N and NW leading into this event. The baroclinic boundary is suppressed to the south. Seems like some here are overlooking basic meteorology. The low will develop and track along the thermal boundary, and so it isnt surprising that places further SE are favored for the heaviest snow. The ens mean across guidance are literally screaming that this is the case. 32 minutes ago, CAPE said: We aren't screwed. High probability for accumulating snow for much of the region at this point. But the idea that in this setup the more likely 'fail mode' should be a track too far NW is just a little fucking silly. The high is to the NW not N or NE of the system which is less suppressive. If you're referring to my comments about the analogs typically being a NW storm...I pointed out those setups didn't have the cold and high pressure to the extreme we have so it changes things. But those setups all ended up NW of progged at 100 hours. The true arctic boundary is through DC leading into the event. Yes there is cold well to our south but its not deep cold...the cold boundary down in the TN valley is shallower cold. We've got major snows well up into our area that started with a boundary there. But the key is for the wave associated with the arctic front to be the one that activates and amplifies NOT the one along the coastal front. That does not mean a cutter...the storm type I am thinking here with a somewhat similar h5 progression (DOES NOT MEAN THIS STORM GETS TO THE LEVEL OF THESE) is 1996, Feb 2006, March 2017. March 2017 is the best example of a TPV split where the storm rides up in between with a very similar H5 track of the upper low. What screwed us in that storm was the arctic boundary wave to our west amplified too much and held on way too long. I am NOT saying that should happen...but that the wave on that boundary should be the one with more focus not down over the SE so far disconnected from all the energy. Feb 2006 we had boudary issues but the 850 line was way down further south than it is here. That storm also had a wave on the arctic boundary that helped draw it up or it would have been way OTS had it focused on the coastal front. Same with 1996. If you amplify the wave a bit more along the arctic front that shallow cold south of the arctic boundary can be overcome really easy. Watch how fast that boundary can rocket NW if you amplify a wave along the boundary just a little. God knows we've seen that kill us 10000 times, why can't it help us once? When I look at the H5 track I don't see a suppressed look...usually the heaviest snow ends up close to the base of the H5 track northward and that is coming across out our latitude. It's rare to see a big snowstorm hit Richmond and Ocean City from a cut off H5 low that tracks through Ohio and PA. Find me a good example of that. If the H5 looked like this...March 1980... I would be really worried. Some other storms that Jacked SE of DC, and all of these at least got 6" into the DC Baltimore area but the Jack was SE of 95...but look at the H5 and how suppressive it is or how far south in some cases a cut off Now look at the H5 even on the GFS for our system and this is the most hostile h5 look of all the runs today...but one of these h5 does not look like all the others! Ive been looking at SE misses, you know how I obsess over every thing that can go wrong, and I don't see any that look like this at H5. That doesn't mean I think a NW miss is likely...I think the colder regime here offsets a H5 look that without a crazy 1050 high WOULD be an issue for a possible NW track. I could also see a SE miss if we had a really weak system. That isnt suppression its just a weak system not amplifying enough to gain latitude. I would be more worried about runs that don't show much snow anywhere and a 3-6" snow missing to our SE. That is very believable. But a storm amplified enough to cause a 12" snow somewhere with the H5 low that far to the NW and a flow that is not at all suppressive just sliding ENE and OTS, well its not the profile of our SE misses with 12" snows just to our SE. That said...I guess there is a first time for everything... or maybe the models end up right but for the wrong reason and the wave trends to a disconnected weak POS and there is no 10" plus snows anywhere! That would be a more typical way to miss in this h5 setup. But I don't see a scenario where MO gets 16" of snow and a wave is approaching us from the TN/OH valley with that h5 look and suddenly it gets suppressed to our south. That doesn't add up to me. I am not trying to be confrontational...I am always open to learning and I am wrong plenty so I am willing for anyone to show me where I am wrong here...I just don't see any comps to this. What I do see when I tried to find similar setups with a splitting TPV under a west based block where the western lobe splits and cuts off over the upper midwest are mostly storms that ended up if anything more amplified than we want, not less. 12 3 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 Seasonal trend won’t stop 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wintrest Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 2 minutes ago, osfan24 said: Euro still keeps the HECS scenario in play. Has there ever been a storm with this kind of result, though? A storm that destroyed that specific area? Not one that comes to mind. Usually it’s either a southern slider, a region-wide hit or it’s one of those coastal scrapers in Nina’s that hit the beaches, NYC and NE. We don’t have written records going back that far.. though that would be a truly remarkable/unbelievable outcome. Ever possible though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 Richmond's 20 greatest snowstorm days since 1948, based on the Feb 20 date. Pretty close to the current projected pattern.. 3 troughs Pacific-US-Atlantic around a -NAO, ridge extending into the Hudson Bay.. That difference off the West coast (ridge vs trough) could be a reason why it will be a flatter storm, vs a more S->N amped one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Junkie Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 11 minutes ago, bncho said: don't get me wrong... its a good run but its more south. “Dont get me wrong…” should never be used with this map. Storm malpractice. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 Also...look at the RH on this compared to those systems that Jacked SE VA and the Delmarva. Something just doesn't add up here. 18z GFS 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gymengineer Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 9 minutes ago, osfan24 said: Euro still keeps the HECS scenario in play. Has there ever been a storm with this kind of result, though? A storm that destroyed that specific area? Not one that comes to mind. Usually it’s either a southern slider, a region-wide hit or it’s one of those coastal scrapers in Nina’s that hit the beaches, NYC and NE. 1/1940- 21” at Richmond, 9.5” in DC, 12” in southeast DC, 24” into PG county. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 We are basically a modeling error away from a HECS at 120 hours according to the Euro, and if u ask me it’s in the preferred direction for a phasing event like this. It’s fine with me. There are a million alternatives that are worse. 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 Just now, gymengineer said: 1/1940- 21” at Richmond, 9.5” in DC, 12” in southeast DC, 24” into PG county. How about Baltimore? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 24 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: Going back to 12z gfs, but CIPS analogs like northern areas more. From Cody Snell on Twitter. Add this to my rant above... apparently the computers agree with me that this pattern doesn't align with a SE miss... again, open to evidence why I'm missing something here. Really I am 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IronTy Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 4 minutes ago, gymengineer said: 1/1940- 21” at Richmond, 9.5” in DC, 12” in southeast DC, 24” into PG county. I was about to mention, there was supposedly a set of storms in the 1940s some time where SoMD got like 40" of snow over the duration of them and a lot more than DC. Maybe it was that time period? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 8 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Add this to my rant above... apparently the computers agree with me that this pattern doesn't align with a SE miss... again, open to evidence why I'm missing something here. Really I am I see it as a flatter storm though vs all the deepening that models are showing. It may end up further north, but not as strong riding up the coast. That is because we don't have that deep N. Hemispheric pattern of large waves in the mid latitudes -- extended. It does deepen under the perfectly placed Hudson bay/-NAO ridge though. Historically that +PNA is a big piece to dig th3 southern jet, and phase the northern jet too.. But it's not in a perfect position. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 4 minutes ago, SomeguyfromTakomaPark said: We are basically a modeling error away from a HECS at 120 hours according to the Euro, and if u ask me it’s in the preferred direction for a phasing event like this. It’s fine with me. There are a million alternatives that are worse. I thought we lost the HECS as the high-end potential for this one? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gymengineer Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 4 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said: How about Baltimore? 6.0” Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 1 minute ago, Ralph Wiggum said: I thought we lost the HECS as the high-end potential for this one? Definitely not. The euro just had a 975 off Norfolk 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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