NorthArlington101 Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 Just now, Ji said: Better than 12z? yeah but 12z was hot garbage. This is lukewarm garbage 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IronTy Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 2 minutes ago, stormtracker said: Does anybody know what "do a dprog/dt with H5 and MSLP means?" My friend is asking. Progression differential @ 500 and SLP? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 Just now, NorthArlington101 said: yeah but 12z was hot garbage. Central and Eastern PA., yikes. @Lowershoresadness must be happy. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 19 minutes ago, csnavywx said: Should reaaaaaally do a dprog/dt with H5 and MSLP before panicking. Trending towards the northern coastal solution with time (e.g. what the 12Z EC and EPS printed out). Always use 500mb over surface progression until your inside of 72 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 2 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said: yeah but 12z was hot garbage. This is lukewarm garbage That sucks 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T. August Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 3 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said: yeah but 12z was hot garbage. This is lukewarm garbage Don’t look at the individual members Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 Just now, T. August said: Don’t look at the individual members Look at us reeling in another potential miss! Hot streak, baby! 2 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_warlock Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 Just now, North Balti Zen said: Look at us reeling in another potential miss! Hot streak, baby! Miss?? Cause of 1 gfs run?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Miss Pixee Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 4 hours ago, jayyy said: Can somebody with either a meteorology degree or extensive knowledge chime in with what they’re seeing? Cause the weenie cliff diving is annoying as shit lol. This is why I despise long range clown maps. People see one run showing 24” and now a 8-12 or 12-16 type event causes pandemonium that's why the scroll key is your best friend sometimes... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 1 minute ago, winter_warlock said: Miss?? Cause of 1 gfs run?? Relax you. @T. August knows we got this. Dodging warning levels snow events like Neo dodging bullets. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 The real ones know, there is ALWAYS a hidden kicker lurking to pop up on the modeling about this time. At least, when it affects the warning-level snow-hole zone currently in effect for six years and counting between my area and Havre de Grace... 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 My rule for complex situations is to go with the dumbest model. It won't overthink things and will just spit out the most reasonable solution. ICON it is 1 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighStakes Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 Heading out to dinner with the wife for late Valentine's Day right after 18z EURO. Much need 2 hour break from this madness. @North Balti Zen, @Maestrobjwa I'm guaranteeing both of you at least 6 inches a WSW that verifies. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 If the euro looks like GFS we are gonna have to do a temporary pause on posting like when they turn the stock market off lololol. 2 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baltosquid Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 Is it too late to say “just wait til the energy comes ashore?” That usually cheers this place right up. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deer Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 2 minutes ago, aldie 22 said: My rule for complex situations is to go with the dumbest model. It won't overthink things and just spit out the most reasonable solution. ICON it is Ji's rule of going with the least-snowy model has been lurking in the back of my head since the 12z canadian run... I'm still hopeful for this one tho! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 5 minutes ago, North Balti Zen said: The real ones know, there is ALWAYS a hidden kicker lurking to pop up on the modeling about this time. At least, when it affects the warning-level snow-hole zone currently in effect for six years and counting between my area and Havre de Grace... The models are simply unable to produce an accurate forecast 5 days or more in advance, and that's being kind. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 4 minutes ago, HighStakes said: Heading out to dinner with the wife for late Valentine's Day right after 18z EURO. Much need 2 hour break from this madness. @North Balti Zen, @Maestrobjwa I'm guaranteeing both of you at least 6 inches a WSW that verifies. Alright buddy the stakes can't be any higher with that guarantee--counting on you to reel it in Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 Every time - "where in the hell did that piece of energy come from? Ah well, nevertheless..." 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighStakes Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 Just now, Maestrobjwa said: Alright buddy the stakes can't be any higher with that guarantee--counting on you to reel it in All I said was I'm guaranteeing you 6 inches of snow and a Wsw that verifies but I didn't say when. Lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 10-15" for most of us is my guess but if you whine too much then 4" max is what you get Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wintrest Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 Does anyone doubt 5ish inches for the… general… forum? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
csnavywx Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 2 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said: Always use 500mb over surface progression until your inside of 72 hours. I prefer starting there too. In this case, I would not expect the GFS to cover the gap between it and the EC in just one run, esp since previous runs weren't getting most of the snow from the coastal and the developing mid-level low. So, if it's heading that direction, you'd *expect* to see a dip in QPF first, then rise again if it latches onto more of an EC-type evolution. 7 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Reilly Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 22 minutes ago, frd said: Central and Eastern PA., yikes. @Lowershoresadness must be happy. That’s the map of the entire winter right there. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 9 minutes ago, HighStakes said: All I said was I'm guaranteeing you 6 inches of snow and a Wsw that verifies but I didn't say when. Lol. Dang it you loopholdian! Well played 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 I think 00z is it---we will know by tonight and you know what i mean but we will know Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LeesburgWx Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 If euro folds, this server will crash from the despair posts incoming 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 3 minutes ago, Ji said: I think 00z is it---we will know by tonight and you know what i mean but we will know I agree, this feels like that medium range time slot where sometimes they lose it and bring it back to what they were originally showing in the 6-7 day range. We’ll see. I’ll be happy if we can get a cold accumulating snow. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 Going back to 12z gfs, but CIPS analogs like northern areas more. From Cody Snell on Twitter. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 Just now, WxUSAF said: Going back to 12z gfs, but CIPS analogs like northern areas more. From Cody Snell on Twitter. psu was saying that right? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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