Buffalo Transplant Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 Okay... this is the deal from here on out! Time to reverse this! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 On 2/15/2025 at 10:21 PM, Buffalo Transplant said: Okay... this is the deal from here on out! Time to reverse this! Expand Okay, I’m in Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bncho Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 We need the Euro to hold. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormy Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 On 2/15/2025 at 10:05 PM, NorthArlington101 said: Kuchera is friendlier Expand Kuchera means nothing with a right hand turn. But, I emphasize, this is early. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
csnavywx Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 Should reaaaaaally do a dprog/dt with H5 and MSLP before panicking. Trending towards the northern coastal solution with time (e.g. what the 12Z EC and EPS printed out). 12 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 On 2/15/2025 at 10:13 PM, frd said: At this rate OTS on the GFS. Northern jet been screwing the forum in a big way the further North you are. This is an ongoing issue. Again, don't get invested as this is a very delicate storm outcome. Ensembles have guided the op. Expand Yeah, you can see how paltry the precip is this run because the N stream isn't sucking it north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_warlock Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 Fwiw. JMA looks nice.. 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BryanInMd Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 On 2/15/2025 at 10:13 PM, SnowenOutThere said: Cannot believe I’m at regionals finals for swim tonight and just read 5 pages of Icon discussion Expand Which region? Just finished here in the west region Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 On 2/15/2025 at 10:24 PM, winter_warlock said: Fwiw. JMA looks nice.. Expand Actually, it's south with the precip. VA does best. Different from last 2 runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rvarookie Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 On 2/15/2025 at 9:45 PM, TowsonWeather said: Weird. Because you said the exact same thing leading up to the last storm. How far back do we have to go to find where you "always root for y'all"? Because it looks to me like you bring little more than trolling and toxicity to these threads. When was the "rooting" happening again? Expand @nosnowtown that sounds in line with when the rva hate began around here few days ago. Check the prev post over the years (sorry maestro) p.s. Bet I got more ice than you tho last week Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 On 2/15/2025 at 10:26 PM, mitchnick said: Actually, it's south with the precip. VA does best. Different from last 2 runs. Expand There is some precip north, but not much vs VA was my point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 On 2/15/2025 at 10:17 PM, frd said: Makes perfect sense, we are screwed. Gone are the days of cold powder storms. Yes, its cold but the snow is SE. Expand We aren't screwed. High probability for accumulating snow for much of the region at this point. But the idea that in this setup the more likely 'fail mode' should be a track too far NW is just a little fucking silly. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx's Thanks Giving Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 I would argue that the euro op is better than the gefs at this range, and the gfs even less so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 On 2/15/2025 at 10:23 PM, mitchnick said: Yeah, you can see how paltry the precip is this run because the N stream isn't sucking it north. Expand Exactly, Northern stream is screwing us. Always a chance it will change again, as it is a very delicate and dynamic situation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 15 Author Share Posted February 15 On 2/15/2025 at 10:17 PM, H2O said: Where is @stormtracker with his trademarked phrase? Man, fuck the GFS Expand Correct. I'm still into the storm...not gon' let the GFS slow me down! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 15 Author Share Posted February 15 I'm scared, hold me 4 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jonjon Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 On 2/15/2025 at 9:07 PM, snowfan said: Bring on hh. Let the GFS bury us w digital snow. Expand Best post ever 3 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 On 2/15/2025 at 10:33 PM, stormtracker said: Correct. I'm still into the storm...not gon' let the GFS slow me down! Expand % probability of being wasted for 0z pbp’s tonight? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deer Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 any GEFS maps worth sharing? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 On 2/15/2025 at 10:30 PM, frd said: Exactly, Northern stream is screwing us. Always a chance it will change again, as it is a very delicate and dynamic situation. Expand That would also explain why the Ukie ensembles didn't do better because despite the greater amplification, it didn't produce because the tpv was further west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 On 2/15/2025 at 10:29 PM, CAPE said: We aren't screwed. High probability for accumulating snow for much of the region at this point. But the idea that in this setup the more likely 'fail mode' should be a track too far NW is just a little fucking silly. Expand With the dynamics and the set-up I would think the highest probabilty of a screw job would be SE, too just too far offshore. Almost reminds me in a way of the brutal cold preceeding the bomb cyclone of Feb 2018. Incredible snows just missed our area, but I believe there was a beach blizzard in lower De. I am not expert by any means, but this set up has a lot of energy potential and the severe - AO this weekend and HA event NAO phase reversal upcoming still excites me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 15 Author Share Posted February 15 On 2/15/2025 at 10:23 PM, csnavywx said: Should reaaaaaally do a dprog/dt with H5 and MSLP before panicking. Trending towards the northern coastal solution with time (e.g. what the 12Z EC and EPS printed out). Expand That's what I keep sayin' man! I try to tell them this with every storm, but nooooooo 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 15 Author Share Posted February 15 Does anybody know what "do a dprog/dt with H5 and MSLP means?" My friend is asking. 3 10 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 On 2/15/2025 at 10:35 PM, deer said: any GEFS maps worth sharing? Expand they are a little better… letting it play out fully then I’ll share the 10:1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 On 2/15/2025 at 10:36 PM, stormtracker said: . Expand Exactly what I was thinking 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 On 2/15/2025 at 10:36 PM, stormtracker said: Does anybody know what "do a dprog/dt with H5 and MSLP means?"My friend is asking.Something about WX risk 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 On 2/15/2025 at 10:37 PM, NorthArlington101 said: they are a little better… letting it play out fully then I’ll share the 10:1Better than 12z? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 On 2/15/2025 at 10:36 PM, stormtracker said: Does anybody know what "do a dprog/dt with H5 and MSLP means?"My friend is asking.Derivative of prog with respect to time…unless it’s not differential calculus, then I was jk. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 On 2/15/2025 at 10:37 PM, NorthArlington101 said: they are a little better… letting it play out fully then I’ll share the 10:1Better than 12z? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 On 2/15/2025 at 10:37 PM, NorthArlington101 said: they are a little better… letting it play out fully then I’ll share the 10:1Better than 12z? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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