Ji Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 I haven't hit 20" in 9 years. I've only hit the median (15") twice in that timeframe. And all the last 6 years DC/s & e of me have done far better. If I was getting climo it wouldn't be as bad. But the last 6 years or so have been historically the worst that we've ever had. And 6" for a storm with this much potential is not an unreasonable expectation. Like PSU said, it's a difference between getting 6-10" and getting fringed with like 3".Anything less than 6 would be horrific. Buckle up Sent from my SM-A515U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 @Terpeast also, I keep pouring over H5 analogs and they say if anything we should be worried about a miss to the NW not SE. The upper low is way to the west, the flow on top of this does not look like the suppressive shred factory we’ve seen in some recent misses to the south. I’m a little confused actually why this isn’t trending north more. Maybe it will. Still time. It’s right there. The flow ahead of the upper low isn’t bad. There is a huge weakness between the two TPVs. The Atlantic one is way east of where it’s over suppressive. And as the wave approaches the wall of confluence we typically see that kills us when a miss is coming is way up closer to the PA NY line not near us. Why is the slp swinging so far southeast before turning the corner. IMO the wave along the arctic front associated with the TPV lobe that starts to activate and produces the 12-18” snow in MO should continue to amplify east. That’s wheee the energy is. The flow isn’t squashing it. The models that miss is just suddenly amp the low way down in the gulf and kill that which is the key for us. I can count the number of big snows we’ve got that came from the south on one hand. We win with a SW to NE trajectory. We want the heavy snow coming at us from WV not Richmond. But looking at h5 I don’t see why the low is getting shoved all the way down there given the weakness in the flow and energy ahead of the upper low. 14 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 Jb analogs are 2016 1996 and april ,82Sent from my SM-A515U using Tapatalk 4 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: @Terpeast also, I keep pouring over H5 analogs and they say if anything we should be worried about a miss to the NW not SE. The upper low is way to the west, the flow on top of this does not look like the suppressive shred factory we’ve seen in some recent misses to the south. I’m a little confused actually why this isn’t trending north more. Maybe it will. Still time. It’s right there. The flow ahead of the upper low isn’t bad. There is a huge weakness between the two TPVs. The Atlantic one is way east of where it’s over suppressive. And as the wave approaches the wall of confluence we typically see that kills us when a miss is coming is way up closer to the PA NY line not near us. Why is the slp swinging so far southeast before turning the corner. IMO the wave along the arctic front associated with the TPV lobe that starts to activate and produces the 12-18” snow in MO should continue to amplify east. That’s wheee the energy is. The flow isn’t squashing it. The models that miss is just suddenly amp the low way down in the gulf and kill that which is the key for us. I can count the number of big snows we’ve got that came from the south on one hand. We win with a SE to NE trajectory. We want the heavy snow coming at us from WV not Richmond. But looking at h5 I don’t see why the low is getting shoved all the way down there given the weakness in the flow and energy ahead of the upper low. Appreciate your analysis as always. I hadn’t had a chance to dig deeper like you did (expecting company soon) and what you said does seem more promising that a SE miss could be less likely. Maybe the models will catch on soon, especially the ensembles. I’ll dig in some more tonight. 4 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gopper Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 Help me to understand the phrase, "The models always sniff out the big ones early." Does this mean all the models spit out a lot of snow and keep it throughout all their cycles? Is there not wavering in the models even for the "Big ones"? If memory serves (which it might not as I have a poor memory) I believe even in the "Big ones" models will shift around a bit with snow amounts and then come into better focus within 2-3 days of the event. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 2 minutes ago, Ji said: Jb analogs are 2016 1996 and april ,82 Sent from my SM-A515U using Tapatalk Cool Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 Just now, psuhoffman said: Cool Are you attending his Monday evening forum? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 Are you attending his Monday evening forum?Lol.Sent from my SM-A515U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 Scary that we are in nam range...looks good so far Sent from my SM-A515U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 Help me to understand the phrase, "The models always sniff out the big ones early." Does this mean all the models spit out a lot of snow and keep it throughout all their cycles? Is there not wavering in the models even for the "Big ones"? If memory serves (which it might not as I have a poor memory) I believe even in the "Big ones" models will shift around a bit with snow amounts and then come into better focus within 2-3 days of the event.I think it’s just larger scale systems, so less room for chaos. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormyClearweather Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 2 minutes ago, Ji said: Scary that we are in nam range...looks good so far Sent from my SM-A515U using Tapatalk 1059 high at 84 centered just north of Montana. Woof. (I don't know my Canada geography sorry-not-sorry). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 Nam looks good phasing wise. Too bad the run ended Sent from my SM-A515U using Tapatalk 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 WB 12K NAM at range. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 Just now, Weather Will said: WB 12K NAM at range. Need the dgex bad. Never forget the dgex 40” bomb run, which storm was that? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 Here was the dgex back during snowmageddon It’s the NAM at non useful range but I bet it would produce bigly for us 6 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 Need the dgex bad. Never forget the dgex 40” bomb run, which storm was that? Feb 2010Sent from my SM-A515U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 This thread is a fucking train wreck. 12 2 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rvarookie Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 I may need to measure this one... @Ji you can think I can borrow your ruler for this one edit: May need the tape measure homie Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 11 minutes ago, gopper said: Help me to understand the phrase, "The models always sniff out the big ones early." Does this mean all the models spit out a lot of snow and keep it throughout all their cycles? Is there not wavering in the models even for the "Big ones"? If memory serves (which it might not as I have a poor memory) I believe even in the "Big ones" models will shift around a bit with snow amounts and then come into better focus within 2-3 days of the event. There are certain upper level requirements for big ones so when that's in place, models just need a shortwave to work with. When models are locked into a good upper level pattern, any shortwave can set things in motion. Often times during long range tracking, models keep showing big storms but if you follow the shortwave back in time, it's not always the same one but the end results keeps looking the same lol. When models start locking in on the same wave, uncertainty decreases and the wave is often way out in the pac somewhere. Jan 2016 was insane like that 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 2 minutes ago, mattie g said: This thread is a fucking train wreck. Pretty much. Too much regional bickering and complaining about 10" of snow. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 34 minutes ago, HighStakes said: There's does seem to be some added pressure on this storm delivering. The teleconnections on the EURO ensembles don't look so hot. Such a quick reversal on all the important indices starting around the 19th/20th. Didn't see that coming a week ago. Looked like we were going to be locked in through Mid-March. Not so much anymore. Ironically the amplification of this window lead to a faster destruction of the high latitude regime. The TPV lobe dripping and amplifying pinwheels the block all the way into the US behind it linking with the PNA ridge and the newly developing TPV fills the void. We still have a favorable pacific with mjo in phase 8-1 so let’s see what happens. I’m not sold yet it ends so fast but some of the analogs in my set were a quicker hitting period so it’s not impossible. 12 minutes ago, Terpeast said: Appreciate your analysis as always. I hadn’t had a chance to dig deeper like you did (expecting company soon) and what you said does seem more promising that a SE miss could be less likely. Maybe the models will catch on soon, especially the ensembles. I’ll dig in some more tonight. Take this FWIW but for days it was driving me nuts that this reminded me of something and I couldn’t place it. Then I saw a list of analogs yesterday and it hit me. March 2017. I went back through my phone and found the h5 plots I’d saved and it’s the same setup with a splitting TPV under a retrograding block and a storm coming up in between. Very similar progression. That was predicted south of reality from 100+ hours. We went from worrying about a weak storm to oh no it’s gonna change to sleet fast around 72 hours. This has a colder setup so not saying it goes that way and no two setups are exactly the same. But I don’t see how this is an overly suppressive look for is. It doesn’t match big snows that missed us south. Look at the track is the h5! They usually need it further southeast. 9 minutes ago, Weather Will said: Are you attending his Monday evening forum? His what? I don’t really read or watch his stuff anymore. I did check out a couple of his posts last night and saw he agrees with me on the arctic wave. Not sure if that’s good or bad! 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 15 Author Share Posted February 15 4 minutes ago, Rvarookie said: I may need to measure this one... @Ji you can think I can borrow your ruler for this one edit: May need the tape measure homie Definitely a good idea to brag about a storm 96 hours away. Congrats on your HECS man. 2 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 1 minute ago, psuhoffman said: Ironically the amplification of this window lead to a faster destruction of the high latitude regime. The TPV lobe dripping and amplifying pinwheels the block all the way into the US behind it linking with the PNA ridge and the newly developing TPV fills the void. We still have a favorable pacific with mjo in phase 8-1 so let’s see what happens. I’m not sold yet it ends so fast but some of the analogs in my set were a quicker hitting period so it’s not impossible. Take this FWIW but for days it was driving me nuts that this reminded me of something and I couldn’t place it. Then I saw a list of analogs yesterday and it hit me. March 2017. I went back through my phone and found the h5 plots I’d saved and it’s the same setup with a splitting TPV under a retrograding block and a storm coming up in between. Very similar progression. That was predicted south of reality from 100+ hours. We went from worrying about a weak storm to oh no it’s gonna change to sleet fast around 72 hours. This has a colder setup so not saying it goes that way and no two setups are exactly the same. But I don’t see how this is an overly suppressive look for is. It doesn’t match big snows that missed us south. Look at the track is the h5! They usually need it further southeast. His what? I don’t really read or watch his stuff anymore. I did check out a couple of his posts last night and saw he agrees with me on the arctic wave. Not sure if that’s good or bad! Great post. How did your yard do on 3/14/17? That was a biggie up here in CV, 12+ in this area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 2 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: There are certain upper level requirements for big ones so when that's in place, models just need a shortwave to work with. When models are locked into a good upper level pattern, any shortwave can set things in motion. Often times during long range tracking, models keep showing big storms but if you follow the shortwave back in time, it's not always the same one but the end results keeps looking the same lol. When models start locking in on the same wave, uncertainty decreases and the wave is often way out in the pac somewhere. Jan 2016 was insane like that Jan 2016 was awesome from tracking to finish. When we have our usual modeling ups and downs, I appreciate that storm even more--I mean the EASIEST tracking with uniformity across all models for like 5-6 days. I don't think some of us realized then how rare that was! It's what we wish modeling could be all the time, lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 Hope you are doing well @Midlo Snow Maker Hope you get a good snow out of this 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 Definitely a good idea to brag about a storm 96 hours away. Congrats on your HECS man.Not sure what he is doing this forumSent from my SM-A515U using Tapatalk 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rvarookie Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 Just now, stormtracker said: Definitely a good idea to brag about a storm 96 hours away. Congrats on your HECS man. I don’t brag…I always root for y’all even when I get slop. For this one tho…I’m just hoping to enjoy a little karma for few folks 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormyClearweather Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 Latest NWS Blend. Didn't change much from 13Z. 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 Just now, Ji said: Not sure what he is doing this forum Sent from my SM-A515U using Tapatalk Sometimes I wonder the same about you tbh 3 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WVsnowlover Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 42 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Look on the bright side. RIC and SWVA weenies are still lookin solid. I'll let you use my snow total in your yard to help out. It's what friends are for If it plays out like that I may have to chase this one and stay at the lake. Maybe do some fishing in the snow. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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