adelphi_sky Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 1 minute ago, stormtracker said: Its 100% booze, ribeyes and snow. Congrats on the Palm. That's my birthday spot. I always get the 3lbs lobster though. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MDScienceTeacher Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 Just now, mitchnick said: It exits stage right at the VA Capes, which cuts off our totals. I know we have said this many times in the past but we could easily see a slight Trend northward as we move closer to the event. Especially with a more amped storm. I am loving where we sit right now. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 12 minutes ago, DDweatherman said: With a phasing event, you may not be wrong. This isn’t some progressive trash wave Yes I'd still like to see the Euro return to a stronger more consolidated ull like 00z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 21 minutes ago, AlexD1990 said: You and I (and @CAPE) make out well, as does just about the whole subforum. The mood in here doesn't match the models lol Im not in this camp. If I get 12” I’m ok. But there are people up in this area that want a storm to “settle the score” and bring this area to where we “should be” with regard to climo as those southeast of us who are at 110% of normal already. So…this area up here averages like 30-40” depending on exact location and most have had 10-20 so they need like a 20” snow to get to 110% and they need everyone SE of 95 to not get more snow or it’s still “not fair” because then they have 120%. Again I’m not in that camp. But I get it. We’ve been worse wrt climo quite a few years now here. Some are waiting for a storm to settle the score. They want a jack here not another storm where way more snow falls to our southeast. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 The operational Euro making a large shift with the track of the storm tells me we should rely a little heavier on the ensembles until it steadies. But I like how each operational perturbation the last few days still gets us a MECS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_warlock Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 Very latest. From WPC... I like it!! 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 2 minutes ago, adelphi_sky said: My hairline started cracking in my late 20s. Same bro (I'm only 34 but now I gotta keep it real short to cover it up...I ain't giving it up yet, lol) 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 Meh. Not a great trend on the Euro the past two runs.Hahahaha he meh’d 12+ for the entire forum. Did you actually expect we’d get 18-24”? Come on now. Keep your expectations in check and you’ll stop always being disappointed. The euro is pretty much in line with the ukie and gfs. Even king euro comes back down to earth. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 I'm just taking my break at work. Did I miss anything from the 12z suite? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 2 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: We have an insurance policy for now at least. The WAA piece looks like a flush hit here. Models have nice 850 and 700mb frontogen all over SWVA. That's easy snow and at this point seems very likely we're getting a piece of that. North of us doesn't benefit the same. Areas north need some phasing and rapid deepening of the low. That's more complicated and harder on the nerves. We're pretty locked for 3-6" min I think. This is a great call out because a lot of our “bigger” snows just have a wall of heaven that advects in from the west southwest. Some of the best pre event radars you can see as bright yellows come in from Knoxville. We are due.. I will say that to keep positive. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormy Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 When I started posting potential for my Newsletter on Thursday, a 4 model blend was 4.5". Yesterday it went to 6.8". This morning 7.7". Now 8.3" Kuchera is 11.2. At 48 hrs., Monday 12z will pass judgment. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 1 minute ago, SomeguyfromTakomaPark said: The operational Euro making a large shift with the track of the storm tells me we should rely a little heavier on the ensembles until it steadies. But I like how each operational perturbation the last few days still gets us a MECS. Ensembles have been leaning east all along. Don't be surprised if they lean further east in light of the operational. I'll be happy if they hold, but preferably improvile of course. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 I'm just taking my break at work. Did I miss anything from the 12z suite?Your call on the Canadian was actually correct just for the wrong day 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J.Mike Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 17 minutes ago, H2O said: Anyone thinking this is a 20” and ONLY 20” storm is fucking stupid You ok dude? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_warlock Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 1 minute ago, Ralph Wiggum said: I'm just taking my break at work. Did I miss anything from the 12z suite? No everything went wide right. Compete miss!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 15 Author Share Posted February 15 1 minute ago, jayyy said: Hahahaha he meh’d 12+ for the entire forum. Did you actually expect we’d get 18-24”? Come on now. Keep your expectations in check and you’ll stop always being disappointed. The euro is pretty much in line with the ukie and gfs. Even king euro comes back down to earth. Huh? We get 18-24" snowstorms here at least once, twice a winter. 1 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deer Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 1 minute ago, Ralph Wiggum said: I'm just taking my break at work. Did I miss anything from the 12z suite? a ridiculous meltdown from some individuals because the Euro ONLY showed 12-18" 1 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WhiteoutMD Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 15 minutes ago, stormtracker said: Sadly, I don't think they do Blizzard Watches anymore. Maybe mets here can confirm? This is news to me. Is this true? At this time I could see counties along the bay east to the atlantic coast getting one in this kinda storm. Just a first guess. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 14 minutes ago, stormtracker said: Sadly, I don't think they do Blizzard Watches anymore. Maybe mets here can confirm? Blizzard Watches are no longer part of the Hazard issuances anymore. However, there are still Blizzard Warnings, but there is just a Winter Storm Watch issued with Blizzard wording. This is part of the Hazard Simplification that has been occurring the past 6+ years. This is also the case with Ice Storms where there are no more Ice Storm Watches, but there are Ice Storm Warnings. 5 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 WB 12Z EPS did shift SE this run compared to 6Z. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx's Thanks Giving Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 5 minutes ago, winter_warlock said: Very latest. From WPC... I like it!! They might as well place a blue H north of New York. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 6 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said: Same bro (I'm only 34 but now I gotta keep it real short to cover it up...I ain't giving it up yet, lol) Let it go, trust me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 Just now, Weather Will said: WB 12Z EPS did shift SE this run. Well @mitchnickis getting his wish. J/K Remarkable opposite of the more amped Ukmet solution. However, still way to early to worry among a miss to the East. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 58 minutes ago, Ji said: I’m actually OK with the run as long as we don’t keep tending the wrong way We need to stop this depresso talk right now from a half dozen here. There is no “trending the wrong way” occurring nor in evidence of starting up. Too many have some emotional issues that snow lovers just don’t want entered into the mix. This is a happy time but unfortunately some choose to Never be happy. We view enough of the wacked out depressos regularly but store that away for this event and Save that for the therapist you are or should be seeing 6 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 4 minutes ago, mitchnick said: Ensembles have been leaning east all along. Don't be surprised if they lean further east in light of the operational. I'll be happy if they hold, but preferably improvile of course. The euro op has been a western outlier amongst the the eps the past few runs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WVsnowlover Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 This Euro run is definitely still acceptable as advertised, but not exactly what I hoped to see after what the 12z CMC showed. I imagine the NYC forum is pretty entertaining right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LeesburgWx Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 Where is the nearest cliff? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 WB 12Z EPS...lot of big hits but still some misses. We are in the good seats of the stadium 4 days out... 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 a ridiculous meltdown from some individuals because the Euro ONLY showed 12-18" Yep. To be fair, the whiplash of this hobby is real. Last week the ensembles all showed big hits, but the OPs were right in showing an advisory snowfall for many with the big snows to the south. Now it’s “the ensembles are too far east” and the OPs doing the opposite. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 3 minutes ago, frd said: Well @mitchnickis getting his wish. J/K Remarkable opposite of the more amped Ukmet solution. However, still way to early to worry among a miss to the East. The good news is that we still have 4 more days of waxing and waning. The bad news is the ensembles and some operationals say we clearly cannot, for whatever reason, shake the seasonal pattern even with the wave changes later in the season. Crazy. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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