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February Medium/Long Range Thread


stormtracker
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Heed this warning from the hills of Virginia, from the oldest mountains in the country. None of you better start a thread on this storm until Tuesday. Or I will pray to the ghost of Dale Earnhardt SR to curse your back yard a snowless wasteland. 

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2 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

Sadly, I don't think they do Blizzard Watches anymore.   Maybe mets here can confirm?

BTW you are a handsome fella..good on you for keeping it together and looking half your age.  Must be the booze and rib-eyes!

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4 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

I figured I'd be waiting a number of years for a major storm after I moved south... let's do this. Idga single F what happens north of our yards. All ingredients are in place for a cold start and finish major storm.... I'm starting to feel this one but ready for the nard punch lol

I won’t believe it until we’re about 24-36hrs from this thing. Still got too much time for things to go horribly wrong, ala a Great Lakes low popping out of the clear blue sky, southern stream de-amplifying beyond belief, mega warm nose appearing, etc.. (yes we’ve been burned too many times).

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5 minutes ago, DDweatherman said:

There’s definitely a reason we almost never get HECS lol

We’ve been very lucky and surprisingly had a lot of HECS from 1996 to 2016.

6-7 IMBY in just 20 years. That is definitely not the norm here historically.

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1 minute ago, Buddy1987 said:

I won’t believe it until we’re about 24-36hrs from this thing. Still got too much time for things to go horribly wrong, ala a Great Lakes low popping out of the clear blue sky, southern stream de-amplifying beyond belief, mega warm nose appearing, etc.. (yes we’ve been burned too many times).

We have an insurance policy for now at least. The WAA piece looks like a flush hit here. Models have nice 850 and 700mb frontogen all over SWVA.  That's easy snow and at this point seems very likely we're getting a piece of that.  North of us doesn't benefit the same. Areas north need some phasing and rapid deepening of the low. That's more complicated and harder on the nerves. We're pretty locked for 3-6" min I think. 

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Just now, Fozz said:

We’ve been very lucky and surprisingly had a lot of HECS from 1996 to 2016.

6-7 IMBY in just 20 years. That is definitely not the norm here historically.

I think that's why there's a but of a skewed perception. Folks like me born early 90s...we got a foot or more every 3-4 years from 1993-2016. The current (hopefully soon to be broken if all goes well) 9-year stretch is the longest of any of OUR lifetimes. So it's taken a bit to re-adjust that expectation, imo

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