jayyy Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 with the temps being at 18-22 during the storm--it has to be a low end HECSAgree. 18-22 degrees, 20+ over a huge area from Nova to NYC and cold afterward so it sticks around. Def a low end HECS 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 GFS ensembles make me a little trepidacious.. but they usually mostly follow the OP A few of them show a good hit though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 6 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said: We get buried on the Euro. I would love this! Another thing too is if we do get a good snowfall, temps should be cool for a while, at least below 40. The upper latitude pattern goes south, but we do hold a trough it looks like for up to 7 days after. Damage is done. Colds been dumped into the CONUS and so long as we don’t get a pac puke flood and the trough is in the east inertia will keep is cool for a bit. Looks like extended guidance breaks the pattern around March 10 Which times up with the MJO likely getting back to hostile phases. I think any warm up before then is fleeting like a day before a front. After March 10 I can see is going into full spring though with a SER once the MJO gets out of cold phase. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 10 minutes ago, Ji said: How is the Feb 25 window looking? For now de-amplifying as this window amplifies more. There is a see saw to this. Conservation of energy. For now guidance has a weaker clipper like wave now. But once we get closer don’t be shocked if it pops back up. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 Eps total snowfall 6 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Demeter Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 31 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: That is a historic storm look just in area of coverage. Could you imagine? 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 56 minutes ago, TSSN+ said: Ding ding How u doin? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 24hr Eps 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jandurin Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 7 hours ago, stormtracker said: Dude, shut the fuck up that was one of his funniest posts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Steve25 Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 3 minutes ago, mitchnick said: 24hr Eps Looks like it brings the best of accumulation east of the OP, but not drastically. Still great! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jandurin Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 6 hours ago, psuhoffman said: Ok a few points rattling through my brain 1) there are actually things I like better about this Euro run. It focuses on the arctic boundary wave associated with the TPV more (as I suspected and hoped guidance would come around to) and because of that it develops the system and starts to mature sooner. It moves a little quicker which cuts down snow totals from HECS to MECS levels. But its a much safer way to go, this progression would have a lot less bust potential than relying on the late bomb phase capture tuck scenario of the 12z euro where everything gets under us and we need it to come straight north really to get us...a SW to NE trajectory is much safer if we want to guard against a really bad GFS like outcome which honestly is more important to me than shooting for the moon here. Yea I would LOVE 20" but if it comes with a big risk of 2-4" instead...I'd rather take a safe 10-15" snowstorm. 2) The 12z op euro was one of the snowiest solutions across the EPS. There was one absolutely bonkers run that was a 2016 1996 type redux with 30"+ across the whole area...then there were 4 members that were similar...but the op was an extreme outlier high end solution. It was probably just random chance that it spit out one of the bigger permutations. A 8-15" type snow was the more common result across members. And then there were some "blah" minority results also...BTW among those there were more misses due to over amplified cutters than OTS GFS solutions, but there were a few of those too. All that to say, the 20" HECS solution was never the most likely outcome even within the euro suite. 3) anyone who throws a fit if we end up with a 10-15" snowstorm should be taken out back the woodshed and *&^&%*$&&*%&%. Frankly that goes for a 8-12" storm also... if we end up with some 4" weak sauce ordinary storm sure, if MD gets fringed again sure...if this euro ends up the final result we should be acting like those people in philly after the eagles won the super bowl. We haven't had a widespread storm like that in years. We don't live in Vermont. A 10" snowstorm is a freaking huge win. 4) The DC-Baltimore area has had 10 HECS storms since 1950 total...and worse only 1 of them came in a la nina winter. 1. 1 more than none. in 75 years. So get that out of your heads. If we do get a HECS then act like you just won the weather lottery because you did. Frankly we've only even had 8 MECS (this is subjective but by my count) storms in the last 75 years in a la nina. But that's way better odds than 1. 8x the odds lol. So I think MECS is probably the reasonable high end expectations here and that should be totally fine. That's still a super rare outcome! When I said I think this happens and we have a good chance at a big snowstorm before the winter is over...I wasn't ever thinking HECS. I was picturing a 8-12" type storm. hell yeah Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_warlock Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 Fwiw. 00z euro AIF Was actually better!! 6 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 Love that March 2 Euro hit so much! If that ever happened, then to hell with Mammoth. Imagine the DC Metro Region getting hit with a BECS like that! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_warlock Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 06zgfs not quite there but definitely an improvement!! It's. Getting there !!! Definitely more north with precip 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 4 minutes ago, winter_warlock said: 06zgfs not quite there but definitely an improvement!! It's. Getting there !!! Definitely more north with precip Man I hope with all my heart that you guys get demolished by snow on Feb 20. I hope you guys track this storm to your heart's content, and then it hits DC HARD, then proceeds to overperform with a TROWAL straight outta Hoth! 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_warlock Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 5 minutes ago, Jebman said: Man I hope with all my heart that you guys get demolished by snow on Feb 20. I hope you guys track this storm to your heart's content, and then it hits DC HARD, then proceeds to overperform with a TROWAL straight outta Hoth! Ty bro!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 10 minutes ago, winter_warlock said: Ty bro!! I Guarantee you. If you start Part II of this February Medium Long Range Thread. You will get February Buried by the Feb 20-22 Blizzard, AND by the March 2-5 Blizzard. You will be SICK AND TIRED of snow, You will have had it with digging snow. You will be EXHAUSTED of snow jebwalks. It just WANTS TO SNOW. The snow gods are smiling on DC right now. These are the Times, to remember. Blast this track at over 900 decibels. This is one of my FAVORITE snow jebwalk songs from Back in the Day, in 1987. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 WB 6Z GFS and total precipitation compared to 0Z 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LeesburgWx Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 Good morning guys, went to bed early expecting disappointment and man, did the CMC and Euro come in big! GFS getting there at 6z and AI looking a little better. Today is a big day for models. Hard to imagine the Euro falling off course at this juncture. We are close to a big one! 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 . 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 I knew you would be waiting on the 6z Heisey. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 1 minute ago, Heisy said: . Is it over at that point 138hrs? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 6z euro did trend less tucked vs 00z. It’s more in line with like the Ukie and other models at H5 now. . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 2 minutes ago, Heisy said: . You have the total and not just the 24 hr? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 Is it over at that point 138hrs?Yes, it’s more progressive H5. I thought 00z was too wrapped up anyway . 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LeesburgWx Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 4 minutes ago, Heisy said: . Still great. I like the distribution of the snow too. We all win here 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 . 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 1 minute ago, Heisy said: . Thank you! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LeesburgWx Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 1 minute ago, Heisy said: . Even better! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 Just now, Heisy said: 6z euro did trend less tucked vs 00z. It’s more in line with like the Ukie and other models at H5 now. . Wax and wane. Once the models lock in on a solution early, you're going to get minor variations that are normal and have nothing to do with fail. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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