bncho Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 @Midlo Snow Makercame back after 3 years to watch January 6 and February 20. Something HAS to happen if we got them out of hibernation. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 Must read for those on a cliffhttps://x.com/cloudsterwx/status/1890581648552411644?s=46&t=C005pd5HNg3Y-KhVU7n3VA 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 I dug deeper into the 18z EPS... they were better than I originally thought Going back to my original breakdown... I looked at the individual members again at the end of the run 1) There are 20 members out of 50 where significant precip is definitely still going on after the end of the run. This would definitely add totals to the mean. 2) There are 5 members that I originally counted as weak miss nonstorms...but in reality they are slow. They stall the southern wave out and then phase late and as the run ends the storm is just getting going to our south heading north and likely to impact us to some degree. A few look ready to crush us and 2 look to at least get decent snow to us. So we are adding 3 from the weak/miss category to the jack and 2 are at least gonna be close that looked like nothing. After this I think the 18z is probably close to 12z its just got some members that are slower for some reason. There is more spread but its more about timing than track. 11 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 7 minutes ago, bncho said: @Midlo Snow Makercame back after 3 years to watch January 6 and February 20. Something HAS to happen if we got them out of hibernation. It's called accumulating Snow, it's been a while for ric. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EHoffman Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 7 minutes ago, Ji said: Must read for those on a cliffhttps://x.com/cloudsterwx/status/1890581648552411644?s=46&t=C005pd5HNg3Y-KhVU7n3VA I literally think you're the only one even close to a cliff 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 2 minutes ago, EHoffman said: I literally think you're the only one even close to a cliff I can think of two more who are close, too. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 5 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: I dug deeper into the 18z EPS... they were better than I originally thought Going back to my original breakdown... I looked at the individual members again at the end of the run 1) There are 20 members out of 50 where significant precip is definitely still going on after the end of the run. This would definitely add totals to the mean. 2) There are 5 members that I originally counted as weak miss nonstorms...but in reality they are slow. They stall the southern wave out and then phase late and as the run ends the storm is just getting going to our south heading north and likely to impact us to some degree. A few look ready to crush us and 2 look to at least get decent snow to us. So we are adding 3 from the weak/miss category to the jack and 2 are at least gonna be close that looked like nothing. After this I think the 18z is probably close to 12z its just got some members that are slower for some reason. There is more spread but its more about timing than track. Thanks for digging. I always thought track was about the same, and it turned out that the weaker/less amped members might just have been slower. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fields27 Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 Anyone going to extrapolate the always accurate 84hr nam before the gfs take us back out to sea? Sent from my SM-N975U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 1 hour ago, Weather Will said: WB 18Z AI fish storm.... The NAVGEM isn't even that progressive. Blow that model up that tesla ai self destructing pos 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 Crazy indepth post, very informative from Mike https://x.com/MikeTFox5/status/1890569540448166149 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yeoman Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 3 hours ago, psuhoffman said: Ok a few points rattling through my brain 1) there are actually things I like better about this Euro run. It focuses on the arctic boundary wave associated with the TPV more (as I suspected and hoped guidance would come around to) and because of that it develops the system and starts to mature sooner. It moves a little quicker which cuts down snow totals from HECS to MECS levels. But its a much safer way to go, this progression would have a lot less bust potential than relying on the late bomb phase capture tuck scenario of the 12z euro where everything gets under us and we need it to come straight north really to get us...a SW to NE trajectory is much safer if we want to guard against a really bad GFS like outcome which honestly is more important to me than shooting for the moon here. Yea I would LOVE 20" but if it comes with a big risk of 2-4" instead...I'd rather take a safe 10-15" snowstorm. 2) The 12z op euro was one of the snowiest solutions across the EPS. There was one absolutely bonkers run that was a 2016 1996 type redux with 30"+ across the whole area...then there were 4 members that were similar...but the op was an extreme outlier high end solution. It was probably just random chance that it spit out one of the bigger permutations. A 8-15" type snow was the more common result across members. And then there were some "blah" minority results also...BTW among those there were more misses due to over amplified cutters than OTS GFS solutions, but there were a few of those too. All that to say, the 20" HECS solution was never the most likely outcome even within the euro suite. 3) anyone who throws a fit if we end up with a 10-15" snowstorm should be taken out back the woodshed and *&^&%*$&&*%&%. Frankly that goes for a 8-12" storm also... if we end up with some 4" weak sauce ordinary storm sure, if MD gets fringed again sure...if this euro ends up the final result we should be acting like those people in philly after the eagles won the super bowl. We haven't had a widespread storm like that in years. We don't live in Vermont. A 10" snowstorm is a freaking huge win. 4) The DC-Baltimore area has had 10 HECS storms since 1950 total...and worse only 1 of them came in a la nina winter. 1. 1 more than none. in 75 years. So get that out of your heads. If we do get a HECS then act like you just won the weather lottery because you did. Frankly we've only even had 8 MECS (this is subjective but by my count) storms in the last 75 years in a la nina. But that's way better odds than 1. 8x the odds lol. So I think MECS is probably the reasonable high end expectations here and that should be totally fine. That's still a super rare outcome! When I said I think this happens and we have a good chance at a big snowstorm before the winter is over...I wasn't ever thinking HECS. I was picturing a 8-12" type storm. Retirement must be treating you well.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rvarookie Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 25 minutes ago, Midlo Snow Maker said: Rotfl. This!! Ji says what we all feel after every model run, he just says it out loud with a DC. backyard bias. Once you over come his " what about my backyard" it's funny Don’t make excuses for his petty ass. You make good snow but we will trade you 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 15 Author Share Posted February 15 Christ almighty. Help. Valentine’s Day is a racket. I’ll be home in time for the GFS! 3 4 2 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_warlock Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 2 minutes ago, stormtracker said: Christ almighty. Help. Valentine’s Day is a racket. I’ll be home in time for the GFS! Wow Randy!! But if u and ur man had a good time that's all that matters bro!! and with a server names Jesus. U can't beat that ! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dendrimer77 Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 2 minutes ago, stormtracker said: Christ almighty. Help. Valentine’s Day is a racket. I’ll be home in time for the GFS! But you were served by the Lord Almighty himself! Totally worth it 2 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bncho Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 3 minutes ago, stormtracker said: Christ almighty. Help. Valentine’s Day is a racket. I’ll be home in time for the GFS! When you said "Christ Almighty" perhaps you were calling your server? 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 3 minutes ago, stormtracker said: Christ almighty. Help. Valentine’s Day is a racket. I’ll be home in time for the GFS! Jesus was your server? Oh hey now.....0z is gonna rock the omen can't get any better. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kay Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 3 minutes ago, stormtracker said: Christ almighty. Help. Valentine’s Day is a racket. I’ll be home in time for the GFS! Good luck. We're all counting on you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 3 minutes ago, frd said: Crazy indepth post, very informative from Mike https://x.com/MikeTFox5/status/1890569540448166149 So what that tpv is the main key to our snowy aspirations...welp, all we can do is wait! Gonna be a tad nerve wracking though, lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 1 minute ago, Dendrimer77 said: But you were served by the Lord Almighty himself! Totally worth it Ninja'd 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 46 minutes ago, Heisy said: This has me completely shook The way it gets there is more shocking...its not in the GFS camp its in its own universe with about as different an h5 progression as I've seen at this range in a long time on a major system. It does give us a coating of snow with the arctic front as the TPV passes across to our north but thats all it is...the southern feature slides off WAY to our south and that is because the TPV never splits the lobe off, it just elongates but remains attached to the Atlantic Vortex, it does that SW stretch of the trough thing we HATE with the tail and all to put it in the vernacular. Look at this crazy difference Euro AI Any storm is dead in the water with the AI progression LONG before it gets to the east coast...that is not even close to the setup advertised across the rest of guidance. The two camps are not all that different up until about 100 hours, then they diverge sharply and radically with most guidance splitting the TPV with the main Atlantic Vortex heading off northeast and the western lobe cutting off and diving into the Ohio Valley. The AI keeps the TPV intact as one shred factory to our north with absolutely no chance for anything to amplify as it drops in over us like a hammer. It's not even close to a storm...if all guidance looked like this I wouldn't be saying wait for the next run, it would be game over no hope that look is not even anywhere near a storm threat. That's what's crazy, its so far away from a storm its hard to believe that either of these solutions can be this far off...because one of them is going to be so horribly embarrassingly wrong here. I know the AI has some impressive early results but I've followed this new Euro since its last upgrade enough to know I would be shocked if it was this far off at this range. I am not saying it might not be over amplified, we've seen that...but this is more then that this is making a total mess of a really major hemispheric scale h5 feature. I'll roll with the preponderance of evidence that the Euro Op and EPS along with UKMET and GGEM and their corresponding ensemble systems are closer to correct here than the AI. Even the GFS isn't close to this extreme, its just a much less amplified version of the other camp. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 15 Author Share Posted February 15 My man said he’s cool with me doing with me doing the gfs pbp. He knows about yall. He knew what he was getting into. He said have at it while he rolls his j and smokes. 6 2 1 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 129$ for a tomahawk steak?? What am I missing here? Did Salt Bae prepare it? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_warlock Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 Just now, stormtracker said: My man said he’s cool with me doing with me doing the gfs pbp. He knows about yall. He knew what he was getting into. He said have at it while he rolls his j and smokes. Nicee that ur man's like that. Wish my wife was as forgiving when it comes to my winter storm obsession lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Reilly Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 6 minutes ago, stormtracker said: Christ almighty. Help. Valentine’s Day is a racket. I’ll be home in time for the GFS! Hope the ribeye was awesome!! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bncho Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 1 minute ago, stormtracker said: My man said he’s cool with me doing with me doing the gfs pbp. He knows about yall. He knew what he was getting into. He said have at it while he rolls his j and smokes. what about the icon? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bncho Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 Just now, Ralph Wiggum said: 129$ for a tomahawk steak?? What am I missing here? Did Salt Bae prepare it? probably some sorta "a5 wagyu" type shit Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_warlock Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 25 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: I dug deeper into the 18z EPS... they were better than I originally thought Going back to my original breakdown... I looked at the individual members again at the end of the run 1) There are 20 members out of 50 where significant precip is definitely still going on after the end of the run. This would definitely add totals to the mean. 2) There are 5 members that I originally counted as weak miss nonstorms...but in reality they are slow. They stall the southern wave out and then phase late and as the run ends the storm is just getting going to our south heading north and likely to impact us to some degree. A few look ready to crush us and 2 look to at least get decent snow to us. So we are adding 3 from the weak/miss category to the jack and 2 are at least gonna be close that looked like nothing. After this I think the 18z is probably close to 12z its just got some members that are slower for some reason. There is more spread but its more about timing than track. As always PSU... very good read bro!!!! 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 ICON took some positive steps to my weenie eyes. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EHoffman Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 7 minutes ago, stormtracker said: Christ almighty. Help. Valentine’s Day is a racket. I’ll be home in time for the GFS! This feels reasonable for 2 at the Palm, which is more of a statement on how expensive dining out in DC is. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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