mappy Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 On 2/14/2025 at 8:43 PM, dailylurker said: On board? This is his storm. He started telling us about it about 6 weeks ago. Unbelievable, and if it happens will definitely trip me out lol Expand I hope it works out for him, everyone…mostly me. 1 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 On 2/14/2025 at 8:58 PM, Scarlet Pimpernel said: I thought it was 17.8". Seems that specific location cannot measure more than that even if a short distance away gets well over 20"!!! (OK, I think DCA did record around 19" for the PD-I storm but all the other big ones since, seem to have been stuck at literally 17.8!!!) Expand If the Potomac River somehow froze then would that help DCA get a few more inches? 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
primetime Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 On 2/14/2025 at 8:18 PM, winter_warlock said: Might be hope yet for the PSUHOFFMAN storm!!!! Expand Since January 2011 was the PSU Hoffman storm, would this be PSU2? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormyClearweather Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 The LWX disco, or at least the portion most of us care about: THIS REINFORCEMENT OF COLD AIR COULD SET THE STAGE FOR A WINTER STORM THAT COULD BRING ACCUMULATING SNOW TO MUCH OF THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH LATE THURSDAY. IN TERMS OF THE SYNOPTIC SET UP FOR A NOTEWORTHY SYNOPTIC SNOW ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD, MANY PIECES OF THE PUZZLE ARE THERE IN THE LONG RANGE GUIDANCE (I.E. DECAYING GREENLAND BLOCK, DOWNSTREAM 50/50 LOW, DECAYING WEST-EAST BASED -NAO, FAVORABLE RIDGE OVER IDAHO). NOW WHAT HAPPENS AS A PIECE OF ENERGY ROUNDS THE BASE OF A TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED UL LOW MOVES EASTWARD, WILL BE ESSENTIAL IN DETERMINING IF THIS IS A SNOW EVENT WE TALK ABOUT FOR YEARS TO COME OR A FEW FLURRIES. MANY DETAILS TO BE IRONED OUT, WHICH SHOULD HOPEFULLY BECOME MORE CLEAR BY THE TIME WE MOVE INTO THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND/EARLY NEXT WEEK. 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighStakes Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 On 2/14/2025 at 9:01 PM, primetime said: Since January 2011 was the PSU Hoffman storm, would this be PSU2? Expand Yes! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 On 2/14/2025 at 8:53 PM, das said: Fiddlehead, eh? My recent favorite. The brewery is 3 miles from my house here in VT. I know where I am stopping on the way home tonight! Expand They have a few that I really enjoy, Mastermind being one. Their Second Fiddle is always enjoyable as well. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 On 2/14/2025 at 8:55 PM, baltosquid said: You know it’s a legit opportunity when red usernames you’ve hardly ever or even never seen before come around! Expand when Dr. Venkman shows up to give his take..I'll know we are in historic territory Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gymengineer Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 And any storm since Knickerbocker that could have cleared 20" at DCA had small flaws. 2/10 was above freezing there at the start, so lost some precipitation to melted snow. 1/96 had the dry slot/sleet lull. 1/16 had the dry slot lull (and measurement failure). Of course, 2/03 was mix-y. And just not enough precip in 2/79, 2/83 and 12/09. I think in terms of modeling, 1/16 had the best shot for 20", but I remember how bleak it was in here for downtown DC folks during the lull- the duration of it was unexpected. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 I will settle for nothing except a Washington-Jefferson Storm repeat. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 On 2/14/2025 at 9:05 PM, BristowWx said: when Dr. Venkman shows up to give his take..I'll know we are in historic territory Expand Damn right Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Negnao Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 On 2/14/2025 at 9:05 PM, gymengineer said: And any storm since Knickerbocker that could have cleared 20" at DCA had small flaws. 2/10 was above freezing there at the start, so lost some precipitation to melted snow. 1/96 had the dry slot/sleet lull. 1/16 had the dry slot lull (and measurement failure). Of course, 2/03 was mix-y. And just not enough precip in 2/79, 2/83 and 12/09. I think in terms of modeling, 1/16 had the best shot for 20", but I remember how bleak it was in here for downtown DC folks during the lull- the duration of it was unexpected. Expand 2/10 was definitely more than 20 at DCA and indeed they had an initial observation closer to what Dulles got. They then revised that observation but also acknowledged that they lost the snow board during the storm. Essentially they guessed. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 Incremental improvement on the GFS is what I’m looking for, even if it has issues. p.s. Dumb model Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 14 Author Share Posted February 14 Well yall good luck tonight at 0z. Bf and I have a spectacular dinner at 9 and some Valentine’s alone time, so I will not be on tonight. 16 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
whiteout Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 This will end up being a one model cycle pump fake……write it down. Too much timing that has to go right to make this a forum wide KU. Kicker that pumps the ridge, northern and southern steam phasing, charged up low coming out of the northern stream, etc. Fun while it lasted though. . 3 4 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 14 Author Share Posted February 14 lol yes I will Man, fuck Valentine’s. <looks around to see if he’s near> 2 14 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Violentweatherfan Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 On 2/14/2025 at 9:11 PM, stormtracker said: Well yall good luck tonight at 0z. Bf and I have a spectacular dinner at 9 and some Valentine’s alone time, so I will not be on tonight. Expand Yeah sure Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Miss Pixee Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 On 2/14/2025 at 8:50 PM, psuhoffman said: That was almost 100 years ago and measured at the Arboretum I think... not a runway on an island in the patomac river. lol They probably won't ever challenge that so long as they keep the official records at DCA. Expand I forget what the "official" number was in 2016 but there was 22" in my parents back yard. Native Washingtonians have laughed at DCA for as long as I can remember. Everyone in a circle around the city would get 10" and they come up with 8" on a concrete runway. We called it the hotplate special. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jersey Andrew Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 On 2/14/2025 at 9:05 PM, gymengineer said: And any storm since Knickerbocker that could have cleared 20" at DCA had small flaws. 2/10 was above freezing there at the start, so lost some precipitation to melted snow. 1/96 had the dry slot/sleet lull. 1/16 had the dry slot lull (and measurement failure). Of course, 2/03 was mix-y. And just not enough precip in 2/79, 2/83 and 12/09. I think in terms of modeling, 1/16 had the best shot for 20", but I remember how bleak it was in here for downtown DC folks during the lull- the duration of it was unexpected. Expand On 2/14/2025 at 9:06 PM, Kmlwx said: I will settle for nothing except a Washington-Jefferson Storm repeat. Expand I have heard three feet of snow fell in NOVA in 1772 storm. Wonder how 2010 and 2016 compared with 28 inches in many areas and 32 at Dulles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gymengineer Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 On 2/14/2025 at 9:10 PM, Negnao said: 2/10 was definitely more than 20 at DCA and indeed they had an initial observation closer to what Dulles got. They then revised that observation but also acknowledged that they lost the snow board during the storm. Essentially they guessed. Expand That was the measurement issue I was referring to. It was the 1/2016 blizzard. Here's the service assessment report where they acknowledged the snowboard issue but refused to change the result (see page 20): https://www.weather.gov/media/publications/assessments/2016_blizzard_snowfall_evaluation.pdf 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 14 Author Share Posted February 14 On 2/14/2025 at 9:13 PM, Violentweatherfan said: Yeah sure Expand See post above yours. I’m gonna be peeking. But no way he’s gonna let me yak it up for whole runs. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 On 2/14/2025 at 9:12 PM, whiteout said: This will end up being a one model cycle pump fake……write it down. Too much timing that has to go right to make this a forum wide KU. Kicker that pumps the ridge, northern and southern steam phasing, charged up low coming out of the northern stream, etc. Fun while it lasted though. . Expand Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 On 2/14/2025 at 9:11 PM, stormtracker said: Well yall good luck tonight at 0z. Bf and I have a spectacular dinner at 9 and some Valentine’s alone time, so I will not be on tonight. Expand This has to be a joke. Snow is more important than any of this. You’re fired. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WVclimo Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 Not sure exactly where the Knickerbocker storm was measured. Probably the National Weather Bureau site on M St., but could’ve been at the Signal Service offices on G St.,next to Lafayette Square. Both sites reported DC obs during the 1920’s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 On 2/14/2025 at 9:02 PM, StormyClearweather said: The LWX disco, or at least the portion most of us care about: THIS REINFORCEMENT OF COLD AIR COULD SET THE STAGE FOR A WINTER STORM THAT COULD BRING ACCUMULATING SNOW TO MUCH OF THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH LATE THURSDAY. IN TERMS OF THE SYNOPTIC SET UP FOR A NOTEWORTHY SYNOPTIC SNOW ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD, MANY PIECES OF THE PUZZLE ARE THERE IN THE LONG RANGE GUIDANCE (I.E. DECAYING GREENLAND BLOCK, DOWNSTREAM 50/50 LOW, DECAYING WEST-EAST BASED -NAO, FAVORABLE RIDGE OVER IDAHO). NOW WHAT HAPPENS AS A PIECE OF ENERGY ROUNDS THE BASE OF A TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED UL LOW MOVES EASTWARD, WILL BE ESSENTIAL IN DETERMINING IF THIS IS A SNOW EVENT WE TALK ABOUT FOR YEARS TO COME OR A FEW FLURRIES. MANY DETAILS TO BE IRONED OUT, WHICH SHOULD HOPEFULLY BECOME MORE CLEAR BY THE TIME WE MOVE INTO THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND/EARLY NEXT WEEK. Expand I like that they list the main pieces to watch, helps with model watching. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WVsnowlover Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 On 2/14/2025 at 9:12 PM, whiteout said: This will end up being a one model cycle pump fake……write it down. Too much timing that has to go right to make this a forum wide KU. Kicker that pumps the ridge, northern and southern steam phasing, charged up low coming out of the northern stream, etc. Fun while it lasted though. . Expand You must have missed the 0z suite last night, which was showing similar outcomes. I assume you're just trolling? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paulythegun Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 On 2/14/2025 at 8:50 PM, psuhoffman said: That was almost 100 years ago and measured at the Arboretum I think... not a runway on an island in the patomac river. lol They probably won't ever challenge that so long as they keep the official records at DCA. Expand If it was measured at the top of the DC's Mighty Mount Hamilton then that could have pushed the totals up. I live downslope from that beast so my snow totals are always diminished https://www.peakbagger.com/peak.aspx?pid=27611 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quasievil Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 On 2/14/2025 at 9:11 PM, stormtracker said: Well yall good luck tonight at 0z. Bf and I have a spectacular dinner at 9 and some Valentine’s alone time, so I will not be on tonight. Expand I don't believe you - the not on tonight part. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 Icon tpv a bit west at 114hrs vs 13z. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 Icon probably slower this run, but that's a guess. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 On 2/14/2025 at 9:16 PM, ravensrule said: This has to be a joke. Snow is more important than any of this. You’re fired. Expand That's a firm declaration, coming from you Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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