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February Medium/Long Range Thread


stormtracker
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15 minutes ago, dailylurker said:

On board? This is his storm. He started telling us about it about 6 weeks ago. Unbelievable, and if it happens will definitely trip me out lol

I hope it works out for him, everyone…mostly me. 

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Just now, Scarlet Pimpernel said:

I thought it was 17.8".  Seems that specific location cannot measure more than that even if a short distance away gets well over 20"!!! :lol: (OK, I think DCA did record around 19" for the PD-I storm but all the other big ones since, seem to have been stuck at literally 17.8!!!)

If the Potomac River somehow froze then would that help DCA get a few more inches?

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The LWX disco, or at least the portion most of us care about:

THIS REINFORCEMENT OF COLD AIR COULD SET THE STAGE   
FOR A WINTER STORM THAT COULD BRING ACCUMULATING SNOW TO MUCH OF THE   
REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH LATE THURSDAY.  
  
IN TERMS OF THE SYNOPTIC SET UP FOR A NOTEWORTHY SYNOPTIC SNOW ALONG   
THE EASTERN SEABOARD, MANY PIECES OF THE PUZZLE ARE THERE IN THE   
LONG RANGE GUIDANCE (I.E. DECAYING GREENLAND BLOCK, DOWNSTREAM 50/50   
LOW, DECAYING WEST-EAST BASED -NAO, FAVORABLE RIDGE OVER IDAHO). NOW   
WHAT HAPPENS AS A PIECE OF ENERGY ROUNDS THE BASE OF A TROUGH AND   
ASSOCIATED UL LOW MOVES EASTWARD, WILL BE ESSENTIAL IN DETERMINING   
IF THIS IS A SNOW EVENT WE TALK ABOUT FOR YEARS TO COME OR A FEW   
FLURRIES.
MANY DETAILS TO BE IRONED OUT, WHICH SHOULD HOPEFULLY   
BECOME MORE CLEAR BY THE TIME WE MOVE INTO THE SECOND HALF OF THE   
WEEKEND/EARLY NEXT WEEK.   
  

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8 minutes ago, baltosquid said:

You know it’s a legit opportunity when red usernames you’ve hardly ever or even never seen before come around!

when Dr. Venkman shows up to give his take..I'll know we are in historic territory

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And any storm since Knickerbocker that could have cleared 20" at DCA had small flaws. 2/10 was above freezing there at the start, so lost some precipitation to melted snow. 1/96 had the dry slot/sleet lull. 1/16 had the dry slot lull (and measurement failure). Of course, 2/03 was mix-y.  And just not enough precip in 2/79, 2/83 and 12/09. 

I think in terms of modeling, 1/16 had the best shot for 20", but I remember how bleak it was in here for downtown DC folks during the lull- the duration of it was unexpected.  

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3 minutes ago, gymengineer said:

And any storm since Knickerbocker that could have cleared 20" at DCA had small flaws. 2/10 was above freezing there at the start, so lost some precipitation to melted snow. 1/96 had the dry slot/sleet lull. 1/16 had the dry slot lull (and measurement failure). Of course, 2/03 was mix-y.  And just not enough precip in 2/79, 2/83 and 12/09. 

I think in terms of modeling, 1/16 had the best shot for 20", but I remember how bleak it was in here for downtown DC folks during the lull- the duration of it was unexpected.  

2/10 was definitely more than 20 at DCA and indeed they had an initial observation closer to what Dulles got. They then revised that observation but also acknowledged that they lost the snow board during the storm. Essentially they guessed. 

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This will end up being a one model cycle pump fake……write it down. Too much timing that has to go right to make this a forum wide KU. Kicker that pumps the ridge, northern and southern steam phasing, charged up low coming out of the northern stream, etc.

Fun while it lasted though.


.

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27 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

That was almost 100 years ago and measured at the Arboretum I think... not a runway on an island in the patomac river.  lol

They probably won't ever challenge that so long as they keep the official records at DCA.  

I forget what the "official" number was in 2016 but there was 22" in my parents back yard. Native Washingtonians have laughed at DCA for as long as I can remember. Everyone in a circle around the city would get 10" and they come up with 8" on a concrete runway. We called it the hotplate special.

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6 minutes ago, gymengineer said:

And any storm since Knickerbocker that could have cleared 20" at DCA had small flaws. 2/10 was above freezing there at the start, so lost some precipitation to melted snow. 1/96 had the dry slot/sleet lull. 1/16 had the dry slot lull (and measurement failure). Of course, 2/03 was mix-y.  And just not enough precip in 2/79, 2/83 and 12/09. 

I think in terms of modeling, 1/16 had the best shot for 20", but I remember how bleak it was in here for downtown DC folks during the lull- the duration of it was unexpected.  

 

6 minutes ago, Kmlwx said:

I will settle for nothing except a Washington-Jefferson Storm repeat.

I have heard three feet of snow fell in NOVA in 1772 storm. Wonder how 2010 and 2016 compared with 28 inches in many areas and 32 at Dulles.

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1 minute ago, Negnao said:

2/10 was definitely more than 20 at DCA and indeed they had an initial observation closer to what Dulles got. They then revised that observation but also acknowledged that they lost the snow board during the storm. Essentially they guessed. 

That was the measurement issue I was referring to. It was the 1/2016 blizzard. Here's the service assessment report where they acknowledged the snowboard issue but refused to change the result (see page 20): https://www.weather.gov/media/publications/assessments/2016_blizzard_snowfall_evaluation.pdf

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1 minute ago, whiteout said:

This will end up being a one model cycle pump fake……write it down. Too much timing that has to go right to make this a forum wide KU. Kicker that pumps the ridge, northern and southern steam phasing, charged up low coming out of the northern stream, etc.

Fun while it lasted though.


.

CC5CCA28-6C54-48E7-904D-125CF25BCCDF.gif.b522f29c82ad2cb801bca8887cd80364.gif

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4 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

Well yall good luck tonight at 0z.  Bf and I have a spectacular dinner at 9 and some Valentine’s alone time,  so I will not be on tonight. 

This has to be a joke. Snow is more important than any of this. You’re fired. 

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15 minutes ago, StormyClearweather said:

The LWX disco, or at least the portion most of us care about:

THIS REINFORCEMENT OF COLD AIR COULD SET THE STAGE   
FOR A WINTER STORM THAT COULD BRING ACCUMULATING SNOW TO MUCH OF THE   
REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH LATE THURSDAY.  
  
IN TERMS OF THE SYNOPTIC SET UP FOR A NOTEWORTHY SYNOPTIC SNOW ALONG   
THE EASTERN SEABOARD, MANY PIECES OF THE PUZZLE ARE THERE IN THE   
LONG RANGE GUIDANCE (I.E. DECAYING GREENLAND BLOCK, DOWNSTREAM 50/50   
LOW, DECAYING WEST-EAST BASED -NAO, FAVORABLE RIDGE OVER IDAHO). NOW   
WHAT HAPPENS AS A PIECE OF ENERGY ROUNDS THE BASE OF A TROUGH AND   
ASSOCIATED UL LOW MOVES EASTWARD, WILL BE ESSENTIAL IN DETERMINING   
IF THIS IS A SNOW EVENT WE TALK ABOUT FOR YEARS TO COME OR A FEW   
FLURRIES.
MANY DETAILS TO BE IRONED OUT, WHICH SHOULD HOPEFULLY   
BECOME MORE CLEAR BY THE TIME WE MOVE INTO THE SECOND HALF OF THE   
WEEKEND/EARLY NEXT WEEK.   
  

I like that they list the main pieces to watch, helps with model watching.

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4 minutes ago, whiteout said:

This will end up being a one model cycle pump fake……write it down. Too much timing that has to go right to make this a forum wide KU. Kicker that pumps the ridge, northern and southern steam phasing, charged up low coming out of the northern stream, etc.

Fun while it lasted though.


.

You must have missed the 0z suite last night, which was showing similar outcomes. I assume you're just trolling?

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28 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

That was almost 100 years ago and measured at the Arboretum I think... not a runway on an island in the patomac river.  lol

They probably won't ever challenge that so long as they keep the official records at DCA.  

If it was measured at the top of the DC's Mighty Mount Hamilton then that could have pushed the totals up. I live downslope from that beast so my snow totals are always diminished

https://www.peakbagger.com/peak.aspx?pid=27611

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