clskinsfan Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 16 minutes ago, mitchnick said: AI is a complete miss offshore. I mean for everybody. Lol So was the NavGem....:) 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowenOutThere Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 2 minutes ago, stormtracker said: Anybody have important plans Thursday? I have states for swimming that Saturday if that helps Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 7 minutes ago, Ji said: i almost wish mitch would stop posting it. I use the euro...thats it I posted it because Psu asked me. I won't post it unless it's good. But knowing that, don't stress to much not knowing what it shows when I don't. Lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tplbge Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 5 minutes ago, stormtracker said: Anybody have important plans Thursday? Shoveling! 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 1 hour ago, NovaWahoo said: Ugh. Of COURSE us Burke/Fairfax Station people get 22.8 while the Springfield people get 23. Fringed in the 2 foot potential. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 Before Ji starts a damn panic, I don't see any similarities to Boxing day The issue there was the northern stream wave was out ahead of the STJ wave initially and coming in much further east...so it acted as a suppressive not amplifying factor initially. Note the NS dropping down ahead of the STJ wave into the Midwest and OH valley here. Then the NS dug too much, forcing the system way down off the SE coast and squashing anything trying to come up into the TN valley Lastly the NS cut off but it did so to our south, coming in at a bad trajectory, then elongated N-S with two vort maxes rotating around ...which essentially slingshot the system up the coast but off the coast...and with the cutoff H5 right under us there was no way to get moisture transport to the west into the mid atlantic. If this fails it would have to be in a different way, because it's not that similar a progression on the guidance right now. It would take monumental changes to get that kind of thing. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 5 minutes ago, clskinsfan said: So was the NavGem....:) 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 @stormtracker what's going on up in here...people talking about boxing day and March 2001? WTF 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 Just now, psuhoffman said: @stormtracker what's going on up in here...people talking about boxing day and March 2001? WTF lol--i was talking more about the Dec 30,2000 storm. Euro had us 1-2 feet 5 days before storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WesternFringe Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 6 minutes ago, stormtracker said: Anybody have important plans Thursday? My wife and mother-in-law are flying back into DCA Thursday at 1 am. Will they be alright? 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Warm Nose Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 Just now, WesternFringe said: My wife and mother-in-law are flying back into DCA Thursday at 1 am. Will they be alright? No. They'll be hopelessly stuck in a vortex of digital snow. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dallen7908 Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 10 minutes ago, Paleocene said: Maybe the Euro AI is only based off of data from 2017-2024 when it basically never snowed, so it can't handle a TUCKED FOLKS. I know you're joking, but I believe it trained on selected years from the 40-year ERA5 reanalysis, which covered 1979 - 2018. A reanalysis blends model output with observations. The resolution of the training data set is 1 x 1 degrees, so relatively coarse. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wasnow215 Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 11 minutes ago, stormtracker said: Anybody have important plans Thursday? Nah I'm good at my SUPER BOWL CHAMPIONS EAGLES PARADE today so everything next week is fine!! E A G L E S EAGLES H E C S HECS!! 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 @Scraff SBI was reading high so ran out to stock the fridge. If all else fails, the cellar is loaded with stouts and imperial stouts. And if the storm falls apart, well, I won't remember it anyway 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 Dang CWG just showed the euro run on FB. Seems a bit early to hype up the masses....I thought that was Jay's Wintry Mix's job 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DanTheMan Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 15 minutes ago, stormtracker said: Anybody have important plans Thursday? Shoot was gonna buy ANOTHER house Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 1 hour ago, stormtracker said: I f*cking lol'd audibly. 8 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dailylurker Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 4 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: @Scraff SBI was reading high so ran out to stock the fridge. If all else fails, the cellar is loaded with stouts and imperial stouts. And if the storm falls apart, well, I won't remember it anyway Im the same way, but with weed instead lol. I'm actually making ice water bubble hash right now. Then I take the hash and make different edibles. I'm making some strong ones for the next few days lol 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RickinBaltimore Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 20 minutes ago, stormtracker said: Anybody have important plans Thursday? No, but my oldest is in the All State Chorus that weekend at College Park 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 Best yet is that we have ensemble and op agreement across the board...AND we're inside 150 hours. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 22 minutes ago, stormtracker said: Anybody have important plans Thursday? I actually have a very important appointment with my ED doctor, what do you suggest i do?. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 Just now, ravensrule said: I actually have a very important appointment with my ED doctor, what do you suggest i do?. Stop telling us about it 2 16 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IronTy Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 4 minutes ago, dailylurker said: Im the same way, but with weed instead lol. I'm actually making ice water bubble hash right now. Then I take the hash and make different edibles. I'm making some strong ones for the next few days lol I don't drink or do weed, but my humidor was topped up this week also. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 Hey guys! Been busy...I miss anything? 1 11 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 Just now, MillvilleWx said: Hey guys! Been busy...I miss anything? The AI is a total whiff, go back to work. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 Just now, MillvilleWx said: Hey guys! Been busy...I miss anything? Out to sea. See ya in December 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 14 Author Share Posted February 14 21 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: @stormtracker what's going on up in here...people talking about boxing day and March 2001? WTF MAAS Mid Atlantic Anxiety Syndrome 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 15 minutes ago, Ji said: lol--i was talking more about the Dec 30,2000 storm. Euro had us 1-2 feet 5 days before storm Shit wrong storm...yay now we've brought up all 3 of our biggest busts of the last 30 years...awesome. But that storm has even less in common IMO. It was purely NS miller b, not hybrid. From 5 days out the models were wrong because they thought the STJ wave would be out in front and phase and there would be a hybrid system. Once they latched onto the idea it would be a NS only miller b it became more iffy but some runs still showed a hit because back then they liked to tease us with miller b's when in reality they almost NEVER develop fast enough, that one Feb 1996 one being the only exception I can ever remember where a pure NS miller b bombed in time to get the DC area into heavy snow. What are the odds this becomes like that? Not much imo. First of all the southern stream is way out ahead of the NS on this one so there is no mechanism to totally squash it. If the NS squashes it...there wouldn't be a storm because there is no strong NS SW to work with here. Also, models are better at day 5 then they were at day 3 back then. We don't see major errors on significant systems like that as often. Anything is "possible" but I don't see many similarities to this setup. Now can we stop bringing up every horrible fail we've had. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WesternFringe Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 1 minute ago, MillvilleWx said: Hey guys! Been busy...I miss anything? Just deciding whether we get a SECS, a MECS, a HECS, or a BECS next week. And what the definition of those are. PSU is in. Stormtracker is trying to encourage the masses not to cliff dive if one run here or there isn't perfect. Oh, and Ravensrule told us about his ED. I think that's most of it. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DarthHokie Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 13 minutes ago, aldie 22 said: Dang CWG just showed the euro run on FB. Seems a bit early to hype up the masses....I thought that was Jay's Wintry Mix's job Jay rips off the mets here to post on this page. You all are making him advertising money. 6 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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