aldie 22 Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 Just now, Ji said: looks horrible You out? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 14 Author Share Posted February 14 14 minutes ago, WEATHER53 said: I think we will still have some waver down to 6-8” but models do better than they usually do with the enormous ones. My feeling real good locked in like will be around noon Sunday Same. 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 AI is a complete miss offshore. I mean for everybody. LolInteresting, lol there’s always a caveat it’s never easy . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 Just now, aldie 22 said: You out? you would like the future of weather and european modeling to at least give us a dusting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quasievil Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 So what time frames are we talking here? 12Z GFS looks like 18Z (1pm) Wednesday start time. 12Z CMC looks like 6Z (2am?) Thursday start time. 12Z ICON has 12z (7am) Wednesday start time. I don't have access to the 12Z EURO. Interesting we don't have a solid agreement on WHEN. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 1 minute ago, stormtracker said: Same. I’d say noon and midnight runs are ones to pay most attention to Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 2 minutes ago, Heisy said: Interesting, lol there’s always a caveat it’s never easy . this model says no way more than yes and its super jumpy....even with the storm last week.....but its concerning that its looks the worst model Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LeesburgWx Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 Is the AI model experimental and is this the first year it has been running? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gymengineer Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 1 minute ago, Quasievil said: So what time frames are we talking here? 12Z GFS looks like 18Z (1pm) Wednesday start time. 12Z CMC looks like 6Z (2am?) Thursday start time. 12Z ICON has 12z (11am) Wednesday start time. I don't have access to the 12Z EURO. Interesting we don't have a solid agreement on WHEN. Pivotal is free for the Euro: https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=ecmwf_full Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 this model says no way more than yes and its super jumpy....even with the storm last week.....but its concerning that its looks the worst modelThis is probably its biggest test yet. . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dailylurker Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 Just now, Ji said: this model says no way more than yes and its super jumpy....even with the storm last week.....but its concerning that its looks the worst model Remember the week before Jan 6th? It had the wrong idea from 7 days out until start time. It's garbage 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 14 Author Share Posted February 14 2 minutes ago, Ji said: this model says no way more than yes and its super jumpy....even with the storm last week.....but its concerning that its looks the worst model I've been sending that model hate since it's been posted here. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 5 minutes ago, gymengineer said: The surface depiction on the GFS at hr 144 is a complete mess with the double low structure. All the other globals have one coherent low. Did not take long for a completely different solution . 20” to zero. I’m not in despair but stuff likes this is unintelligent and completely unscientific. CAB is plain pure and simple just guesswork. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowman. Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 8 minutes ago, MDScienceTeacher said: Our last two storms had a period in the mid - long range that featured all of the major models showing MECS like totals in the Baltimore-Washington Corridor only to correct south once we got below 96 hours. Until I see different, I am going to be stay cautiously optimistic but be open to the fact that the Euro could do the old rug pull at any time.. We will see. Seeing the EPS look like that with an 8” mean is also very promising. Always feels good to have the highest rated model and its ensembles in your corner. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quasievil Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 3 minutes ago, gymengineer said: Pivotal is free for the Euro: https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=ecmwf_full Thanks. I always forget that. EURO looks like 8pm Wednesday night... give or take. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 3 minutes ago, stormtracker said: I've been sending that model hate since it's been posted here. i almost wish mitch would stop posting it. I use the euro...thats it 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bncho Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 The 12z Euro was really big... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxMan1 Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 While there's no doubt reason to doubt, just remember what so many of you said, including PSU Hoffman... In terms of the pattern, in terms of the teleconnections, it was all about Feb 20th-ish for a long time now. Nothing has changed. That was talked about even before this past snow event. THIS was potentially the bigger prize because of the phasing and tucked in low track off the coast. Nothing has changed in that regard. Enjoy the ride! 17 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
adelphi_sky Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 Just got caught up on the thread. Be still my throbbing heart on that Euro run. Next week is going to be tough not to get distracted at work. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paleocene Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 Maybe the Euro AI is only based off of data from 2017-2024 when it basically never snowed, so it can't handle a TUCKED FOLKS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 Looks like I picked the wrong week to quit sniffing glue! Holy fuck!! Yes. I just saw the Euro between beers. I mean glue sticks. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 14 Author Share Posted February 14 Anybody have important plans Thursday? 4 4 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LeesburgWx Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 Just now, Paleocene said: Maybe the Euro AI is only based off of data from 2017-2024 when it basically never snowed, so it can't handle a TUCKED FOLKS. When AI is still giving humans 6 fingers and toes, that's all I need to see to know which model I am hugging 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mikeymac5306 Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 Just now, Scraff said: Looks like I picked the wrong week to quit sniffing glue! Holy fuck!! Yes. I just saw the Euro between beers. I mean glue sticks. Live look at everyone in this forum... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
adelphi_sky Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 Just now, stormtracker said: Anybody have important plans Thursday? Model watching. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 33 minutes ago, Allsnow said: At what time today will @mitchnick post that the AI is over Bermuda? 15 minutes ago, mitchnick said: AI is a complete miss offshore. I mean for everybody. Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IronTy Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 22 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said: Sterling already went "snow likely" in the grids for next Wednesday. It's in the pipe, 5x5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 1 minute ago, stormtracker said: Anybody have important plans Thursday? Wednesday yes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EHoffman Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 1 minute ago, stormtracker said: Anybody have important plans Thursday? I'm gonna drink a lot of beer and stay up ALLLLL night 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mikeymac5306 Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 Just now, stormtracker said: Anybody have important plans Thursday? I have my annual gondola ride across the Chesapeake Bay Bridge. Should I postpone it or what? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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