stormtracker Posted February 14 Author Share Posted February 14 Just now, psuhoffman said: I'm actually with you on this... this isn't the 90s anymore...the BIG ones dont just pop up and the whole "that's just where we want it" crap has never worked for us in the last 10 years. Around 150 hours out the models actually have done a pretty good job of getting fairly close to the right idea. That doesn't mean the details are perfect and you get the random hiccup runs and outliers you have to toss...but from 150 on in if you take the consensus of all the guidance its been pretty good at showing about what would happen with major systems. I like your confidence. Wish I had it. Dead serious. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 The Jma the most important model of all is also a hit. Similar to the Euro but in much lower resolution. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quasievil Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 Just now, stormtracker said: You mean the GFS? It's going to shit the bed. If this is going to happen, the GFS always catches on late. That's why this has more value, IMO - this also has little to no meteorological basis - but we're on the right side of things here. EURO vs GFS. We'd be waiting for the eventual cave if it was the GFS showing this. GFS has it right where we want it at this timeframe. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 Models are erratic but they do have a better track record with the enormous ones. . 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 14 minutes ago, mappy said: There’s still time Naw I'm all in on this one. That doesn't mean were all getting 20" or there is absolutely no way it could go wrong...but this one is different from all the others recently because the pattern supports this. This is what's supposed to happen. I've liked the pattern setup for this from way before any model showed anything like this. For a while I was wondering "why aren't the models showing solutions like this" given the pattern. When the pattern has major flaws I see them and point them out as reasons it might not happen, and often those flaws are. This time I am looking for reasons it will happen because the pattern is right. 12 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 2 minutes ago, stormtracker said: You mean the GFS? It's going to shit the bed. If this is going to happen, the GFS always catches on late. I think we will still have some waver down to 6-8” but models do better than they usually do with the enormous ones. My feeling real good locked in like will be around noon Sunday 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 I remember when the Euro picked up on Sandy early. It was kind of on its own, and the solution was so insane that most of us (in the NYC forum at least) were like, no way that's happening. Then, it showed it again. And again. And again. At some point, there was a realization that it's the Euro, and it's probably right. And everyone was like - fuck. The Euro always sees the big ones early. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dailylurker Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 Just now, psuhoffman said: Naw I'm all in on this one. That doesn't mean were all getting 20" or there is absolutely no way it could go wrong...but this one is different from all the others recently because the pattern supports this. This is what's supposed to happen. I've liked the pattern setup for this from way before any model showed anything like this. For a while I was wondering "why aren't the models showing solutions like this" given the pattern. When the pattern has major flaws I see them and point them out as reasons it might not happen, and often those flaws are. This time I am looking for reasons it will happen because the pattern is right. Your getting closer and closer to becoming, The Snow Wisperer imo lol. If this happens you basically called it 2 weeks out. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowman. Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 Jan 2016 the models were all generally locked in to a major snowstorm close to a week out. Right now every major model besides the dogshit GFS has the general area with us near or at least a foot so i’m pretty optimistic. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 Just now, Snowman. said: Jan 2016 the models were all generally locked in to a major snowstorm close to a week out. Right now every major model besides the dogshit GFS has the general area with at near or at least a foot so i’m pretty optimistic. yep - the big ones don't sneak up on ya Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LeesburgWx Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 Dayyyuummm at the Euro ensembles! Might be time to push the chips to the center of the table. We are 5 days out and have the euro burying us 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 6 minutes ago, Amped said: The Jma the most important model of all is also a hit. Similar to the Euro but in much lower resolution. It was hard for me to tell, pacman ate the important pixels on my screen 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 Sterling already went "snow likely" in the grids for next Wednesday. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 Just now, Eskimo Joe said: Sterling already went "snow likely" in the grids for next Wednesday. Been there for a couple days Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 25 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: This ones happening Wow Boldest call since 2016, eh? 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: It was hard for me to tell, pacman ate the important pixels on my screen what are the chances this becomes Dec 30,2000 where it went from a Miller A to a Miller B within a similar time frame Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 Just now, Ji said: what are the chances this becomes Dec 30,2000 where it went from a Miller A to a Miller B within a similar time frame seems likely 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 Just now, Ji said: what are the chances this becomes Dec 30,2000 where it went from a Miller A to a Miller B within a similar time frame Why do you hate yourself? 2 8 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 Here's a bookmark to Ian's old thread on DC snowstorm analogs, in case anyone's interested. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 8 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Naw I'm all in on this one. That doesn't mean were all getting 20" or there is absolutely no way it could go wrong...but this one is different from all the others recently because the pattern supports this. This is what's supposed to happen. I've liked the pattern setup for this from way before any model showed anything like this. For a while I was wondering "why aren't the models showing solutions like this" given the pattern. When the pattern has major flaws I see them and point them out as reasons it might not happen, and often those flaws are. This time I am looking for reasons it will happen because the pattern is right. Don’t let me down. I’m teetering on meltdown mode 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 Naw I'm all in on this one. That doesn't mean were all getting 20" or there is absolutely no way it could go wrong...but this one is different from all the others recently because the pattern supports this. This is what's supposed to happen. I've liked the pattern setup for this from way before any model showed anything like this. For a while I was wondering "why aren't the models showing solutions like this" given the pattern. When the pattern has major flaws I see them and point them out as reasons it might not happen, and often those flaws are. This time I am looking for reasons it will happen because the pattern is right. Any storms comparable at H5? Feb 6 2003 showing up on analogs but that shortwave was not even close to as strong as the 12z euro shows. . 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowmagnet Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 23 minutes ago, stormtracker said: Eh, I'm like the other poster in this thread...this kinda thing does make the heart beat faster, but who really can be vested in this yet. We had these numbers last time for the storm that just passed a week out. Although @psuhoffman does have a point...this is a different evolution, different animal. But still, the last storm put the fear in me, so I'm not ready to jump all over this one, no matter how much I want to. Also, I hate we had these runs today, because some of you will become absolutely unhinged and unmanageable when things start see-sawing with the models. We didn’t have that kind of consistency. Once in a while we would get a fluke of the GFS spitting out 18”. Not the Euro.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MDScienceTeacher Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 4 minutes ago, Snowman. said: Jan 2016 the models were all generally locked in to a major snowstorm close to a week out. Right now every major model besides the dogshit GFS has the general area with us near or at least a foot so i’m pretty optimistic. Our last two storms had a period in the mid - long range that featured all of the major models showing MECS like totals in the Baltimore-Washington Corridor only to correct south once we got below 96 hours. Until I see different, I am going to be stay cautiously optimistic but be open to the fact that the Euro could do the old rug pull at any time.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 AI is a complete miss offshore. I mean for everybody. Lol 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 Just now, mitchnick said: AI is a complete miss offshore. I mean for everybody. Lol looks horrible Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 Just now, mitchnick said: AI is a complete miss offshore. I mean for everybody. Lol So is everything else except for a rainstorm on March 1. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gymengineer Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 The surface depiction on the GFS at hr 144 is a complete mess with the double low structure. All the other globals have one coherent low. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 9 minutes ago, Snowman. said: Jan 2016 the models were all generally locked in to a major snowstorm close to a week out. Right now every major model besides the dogshit GFS has the general area with us near or at least a foot so i’m pretty optimistic. And it's not like the GFS hasn't bit at all. The 0z was a significant snow event for DCA/Balt to PHL and major NYC to BOS. 6z was still significant for most of the corridor. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongRanger Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 stormtracker trying to prevent imby jacker suicides, but tilting at windmills might be more effective 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MDScienceTeacher Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 27 minutes ago, stormtracker said: .. Also, I hate we had these runs today, because some of you will become absolutely unhinged and unmanageable when things start see-sawing with the models. Can't wait! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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