winter_warlock Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 2 minutes ago, Miss Pixee said: I'm sure Pepco is hoping too now that they're charging 2-4x 'cold weather' rates when its below 32. The DMV is enraged. Jesus Pepco went up just like BGE did. Energy prices are crazy when it's cold 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 120 12z UKIE 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 132 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 20 minutes ago, winter_warlock said: Ohh ok I did not know that. Ok I take back my bashing These are the most recent verification scores I found for day 5 H5 verification. ECMWF: .946 UKMET: .928 GGEM: .924 GFS: .919 The euro and UK have been 1 and 2 since about 2006 consistently. The GFS used to run 3rd but was overtaken by the GGEM after its major upgrade in 2022 and since the GGEM has been running consistently ahead (if only by a small margin) the GFS. 4 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 From a raw snow mean perspective, no real shift on the 12z GEFS, if anything, more emphasis on a coastal/beaches track. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 12z UKIE def further east 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 14 Author Share Posted February 14 1 minute ago, NorthArlington101 said: From a raw snow mean perspective, no real shift on the 12z GEFS, if anything, more emphasis on a coastal/beaches track. Man, fuck the GFS 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 Just now, yoda said: 12z UKIE def further east Still looks great Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 Ukie looks about 6-10 forum wise from Richmond north. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 14 Author Share Posted February 14 So mixed bag so far on the 12z suite. Euro gonna bail us out...I can feel it. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 14 Author Share Posted February 14 UKIE looks acceptable to my eye 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 12z 00z 8 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LeesburgWx Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 Just now, yoda said: 12z 00z Still looks good to me 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 2 minutes ago, stormtracker said: So mixed bag so far on the 12z suite. Euro gonna bail us out...I can feel it. Dangerous words sir... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 3 minutes ago, yoda said: 12z 00z UKIE took a step back Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 It's basically a 8-14" snowstorm area wide. @Ji will be along to tell us why its awful and the biggest disaster in the history of of the world. 4 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DarkSharkWX Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BlizzardNole Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 32 minutes ago, winter_warlock said: Anyone know how accurate the GEM is compared to other models? Here is a guide from Windy.com that provides short explanations of the different models, including their pros and cons Summary of Weather models 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 Since I brought up 1996 I think I should point something out, which most of you know, but we have some in here who maybe do not.... Yes we have the potential for a BIG 12"+ event here...potential though. The reason I said a few days ago I would bet against a 12"+ event was simply playing the odds...they are very rare and require everything to come together perfectly. I think its good to root for the HECS or MECS+ (depending on what your bar for HECS is) type solutions...but don't but your bar at some crazy we need everything to go perfectly result just to be happy. 1996 could have ended up a 8-12" storm had it not phased perfectly and the arctic wave and STJ wave had stayed more disconnected which is what models showed all week leading in. That can happen. Messy phase, front runner escapes, dry slot... a 18" snowstorm takes more than just a perfect pattern (which I do think we have here) but it also takes all the details and variables to go absolutely perfect. That just doesn't happen often. All that to say...if we end up with a 6-10" snowstorm because all the 10 million things that need to come together to get a 20" snow didn't I am not going to let it ruin my enjoyment of this storm. When I dreamed up this period the analogs I was looking at had a lot of very nice snowstorms, but almost all of them were 6-12" type deals...not a lot of HECS, that was never actually on my mind. The fact maybe we have the upside of something like that if all goes well is awesome but I'm not raising my bar just to be let down. 10 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 NOVA is the the only place in the Mid Atlantic and NE without at least 6 inches on this GFS run. Cant make this stuff up. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jandurin Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 19 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: These are the most recent verification scores I found for day 5 H5 verification. ECMWF: .946 UKMET: .928 GGEM: .924 GFS: .919 The euro and UK have been 1 and 2 since about 2006 consistently. The GFS used to run 3rd but was overtaken by the GGEM after its major upgrade in 2022 and since the GGEM has been running consistently ahead (if only by a small margin) the GFS. but that's total right has anyone checked just for snowstorm verification numbers I'm mostly kidding here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 28 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: 1 11 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 3 minutes ago, clskinsfan said: NOVA is the the only place in the Mid Atlantic and NE without at least 6 inches on this GFS run. Cant make this stuff up. sure but if so far the GFS showed a big snowstorm and then the GGEM and UKMET came in with a miss and the last euro was a miss...we would be feeling pretty bad right now. As long as the euro holds I feel good tossing the GFS. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Miss Pixee Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 Okay I need to understand some terms here correct me if I'm wrong MECS Major SECS Severe HECS Historical BECS Biblical what is the 'considered' amount of snowfall for each? More importantly what the flook is FOLKS? Y'all tossing that aound like everyone knows what it is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 We cannot afford any downward trends. We have got to HOLD on Euro or improve.. GFS and other models bounce a lot. Euro needs to lock. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 1 minute ago, Solution Man said: Damn we got some old cars up in here 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 21 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: These are the most recent verification scores I found for day 5 H5 verification. HRRR: .998 ECMWF: .946 UKMET: .928 GGEM: .924 GFS: .919 The euro and UK have been 1 and 2 since about 2006 consistently. The GFS used to run 3rd but was overtaken by the GGEM after its major upgrade in 2022 and since the GGEM has been running consistently ahead (if only by a small margin) the GFS. Edited to add one more…. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 1 minute ago, midatlanticweather said: We cannot afford any downward trends. We have got to HOLD on Euro or improve.. GFS and other models bounce a lot. Euro needs to lock. I would expect the Euro to be leaning right with its snowfall like the Canadian and Ukie. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 2 minutes ago, Miss Pixee said: Okay I need to understand some terms here correct me if I'm wrong MECS Major SECS Severe HECS Historical BECS Biblical what is the 'considered' amount of snowfall for each? More importantly what the flook is FOLKS? Y'all tossing that aound like everyone knows what it is. FOLKS just means big hit incoming on the models for us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Reilly Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 3 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: sure but if so far the GFS showed a big snowstorm and then the GGEM and UKMET came in with a miss and the last euro was a miss...we would be feeling pretty bad right now. As long as the euro holds I feel good tossing the GFS. Gfs snowfall map looks very wonky in SE Pennsylvania I’ve never seen a solution like that toss! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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