psuhoffman Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 On 2/12/2025 at 11:23 PM, mitchnick said: 18z Gefs understandably not as good as 12z, but not bad. Expand It’s actually more amplified but has a wider spread of solutions so less concentrated snow mean 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 On 2/12/2025 at 11:55 PM, mitchnick said: I like to look at 700mb RH and it does look like a slight improvement. Expand More amplified wave, slightly more suppressive flow. If the flow relaxes as the wave propagates east it’s better but no way to know that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 On 2/12/2025 at 11:54 PM, psuhoffman said: I don’t think we get a 12”+ event. That’s asking a lot in a Nina even in a good pattern. But I think there is a “decent” chance we can pull off a more widespread 6-10 type storm. I think there is a good chance we can get a 3-6 type deal or some combo of multiple events in those ranges. Expand So are you kinda backing off your expectations of the pattern? Or before were you just saying that the pattern just looked like that, not that you thought it had 12+" potential in the first place? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 On 2/13/2025 at 12:21 AM, Maestrobjwa said: So are you kinda backing off your expectations of the pattern? Or before were you just saying that the pattern just looked like that, not that you thought it had 12+" potential in the first place? Expand Getting a 12”+ storm is always going to be a tall order that requires a lot of luck, unless we’re in a west based moderate (or even strong) Nino with the perfect -NAO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 I can’t remember a more frustrating winter 2 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 On 2/13/2025 at 12:33 AM, Ji said: I can’t remember a more frustrating winter Expand Remember when I asked you if you were ever grateful for snow when you got it? This is why I asked that. We've been nearly shutout twice in the last 5 years. Yet somehow this winter is more frustrating to you than either one of those? 4 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 On 2/13/2025 at 12:33 AM, Ji said: I can’t remember a more frustrating winter Expand A winter with weeks of January snowpack and multiple light to moderate events (and major storms if you’re in southern MD) is sure as hell much better than some other recent seasons. 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_warlock Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 On 2/13/2025 at 12:42 AM, Fozz said: A winter with weeks of January snowpack and multiple light to moderate events (and major events if you’re in southern MD) is sure as hell much better than some other recent seasons. Expand Very true Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 On 2/13/2025 at 12:33 AM, Ji said: I can’t remember a more frustrating winter Expand Yes and no. The BN temps raise expectations naturally that are then fed with snow crazy modeling. It's average down your way while I'm 43% of average. I should be the one complaining...so I will. I can't remember a more frustrating winter. 1 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 On 2/13/2025 at 12:33 AM, Ji said: I can’t remember a more frustrating winter Expand Are you an on purpose idiot or is it an accident? 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 On 2/13/2025 at 12:48 AM, aldie 22 said: Are you an on purpose idiot or is it an accident?No it’s on purpose. We should have way more snow than we should. It’s basically been a wall to wall winter. It’s like having 7 great drives and scoring 6 fields goals 1 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Warm Nose Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 On 2/13/2025 at 12:54 AM, Ji said: No it’s on purpose. We should have way more snow than we should. It’s basically been a wall to wall winter. It’s like having 7 great drives and scoring 6 fields goals Expand ... much better than 7 drives and no points. It's all about perspective. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 Mitch we all need an 18z euro Ai update that it has a 6-12” event . 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 On 2/13/2025 at 12:33 AM, Ji said: I can’t remember a more frustrating winter Expand You pretty much say this... Every. Single. Winter. 4 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bncho Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 On 2/13/2025 at 12:33 AM, Ji said: I can’t remember a more frustrating winter Expand 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 On 2/13/2025 at 1:00 AM, Heisy said: Mitch we all need an 18z euro Ai update that it has a 6-12” event . Expand There never was a 12z. They only posted an 18z. That said, 18z is a total miss. Seriously. Only thing interesting is the end of the run that'll likely be gone in 6 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 On 2/13/2025 at 1:03 AM, Ralph Wiggum said: You pretty much say this... Every. Single. Winter. Expand My personal favorite - can you guess which winter this post followed? let me give a hint, it starts with an 09 and ends with a -10 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 On 2/13/2025 at 1:10 AM, mitchnick said: There never was a 12z. They only posted an 18z. That said, 18z is a total miss. Seriously. Only thing interesting is the end of the run that'll likely be gone in 6 hours.Ugh yikes . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 On 2/13/2025 at 1:10 AM, mitchnick said: There never was a 12z. They only posted an 18z. That said, 18z is a total miss. Seriously. Only thing interesting is the end of the run that'll likely be gone in 6 hours.I think this was the new updated Ai as well? . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 On 2/13/2025 at 1:10 AM, mitchnick said: There never was a 12z. They only posted an 18z. That said, 18z is a total miss. Seriously. Only thing interesting is the end of the run that'll likely be gone in 6 hours. Expand Well, coastal NC and SE VA get hit, so I stand corrected. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 On 2/13/2025 at 1:11 AM, Heisy said: I think this was the new updated Ai as well? . Expand No, that's not out until 2/25. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 On 2/12/2025 at 11:57 PM, psuhoffman said: Got to love ya. Only you would look past a cold pattern that hasn’t even started yet to the next possible torch. Expand The 3-8" snow event with -AO at -3 wasn't part of the cold pattern? These next 2 rainstorms are frustrating. Supposingly, we are going to get well into the 50s both times. The Pacific pattern isn't bad for these storms. Gawx did research in the ENSO thread that showed, we have a chance at having the most DJF +PNA on record [CPC]. Out of non-Nino years, he says it will be the most +PNA DJF on record (going back to 1948). We all know how -PNA has been shutout pattern as of late, so it is a little concerning that DJF +PNA this year didn't produce more snow.. we aren't going to be so cold probably in future Winters. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowmagnet Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 On 2/13/2025 at 1:10 AM, Cobalt said: My personal favorite - can you guess which winter this post followed? let me give a hint, it starts with an 09 and ends with a -10 Expand My first winter on here was 2016, which I thought was a fantastic year. More storms would have been great, but I distinctly remember Ji complaining about the terrible winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 honestly, the AIFS hasn't been any more consistent than any other model, and this storm is 8 days out. too much emphasis is placed on it IMO 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Reilly Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 On 2/13/2025 at 12:33 AM, Ji said: I can’t remember a more frustrating winter Expand I can two years ago when we got 1.6" of snow for the entire winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 On 2/13/2025 at 1:48 AM, brooklynwx99 said: honestly, the AIFS hasn't been any more consistent than any other model, and this storm is 8 days out. too much emphasis is placed on it IMO Expand I wanted to be impressed this year - which is kind of my opinion on AI in general lol. It’s consistency is admirable, but think a run of remarkable consistency in the AIFS means the same thing as a consistent run in any model… take it seriously then. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 On 2/13/2025 at 1:48 AM, Kevin Reilly said: I can two years ago when we got 1.6" of snow for the entire winter. Expand Wow! That's 8x more than I got, lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 On 2/13/2025 at 1:48 AM, Kevin Reilly said: I can two years ago when we got 1.6" of snow for the entire winter. Yes, but that was shut the blinds winter so there wasn’t much tracking and nothing to invest in 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 On 2/13/2025 at 12:54 AM, Ji said: No it’s on purpose. We should have way more snow than we should. It’s basically been a wall to wall winter. It’s like having 7 great drives and scoring 6 fields goals Expand Remember 2014-15 before the V-day squall? Probably the most infuriating stretch ever. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 On 2/13/2025 at 1:50 AM, NorthArlington101 said: I wanted to be impressed this year - which is kind of my opinion on AI in general lol. It’s consistency is admirable, but think a run of remarkable consistency in the AIFS means the same thing as a consistent run in any model… take it seriously then. Expand AI models, being underdispersive, tend to latch onto a solution early on. It’s great when they get the storm track correct. It’s an overconfident whiff in other cases where they get it wrong, though. Other than not being based on (and constrained by) the laws of physics, it’s one main weakness of AIWP models. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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