stormtracker Posted February 12 Author Share Posted February 12 Just watching the ICON. It's funny how we went from a super duper amp'd system to one getting almost squashed and then sent out to sea so far. Good thing is, we got PLENTY of time for this to change and it will. Which way tho...that's the question. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 15 minutes ago, stormtracker said: Just watching the ICON. It's funny how we went from a super duper amp'd system to one getting almost squashed and then sent out to sea so far. Good thing is, we got PLENTY of time for this to change and it will. Which way tho...that's the question. Wonder if the strength of the block and how much it relaxes is gonna be in play here...Man I'd love to have a juicy stj wave right now, lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 13 minutes ago, stormtracker said: Just watching the ICON. It's funny how we went from a super duper amp'd system to one getting almost squashed and then sent out to sea so far. Good thing is, we got PLENTY of time for this to change and it will. Which way tho...that's the question. I’d prefer it showed some amped up monster even if it was rain. Not because of any seasonal trend. Because of THIS setup. With this setup even if the storm was over amped we would get a good snow/ice event before any flip to rain. Those runs 2 days ago were about the worst it could get in terms of too amped. That’s the advantage of this kind of blocking. Even a cutter gets turned east and secondaries and you get a thump snow at the least. The total fail option is a weak wave that gets suppressed to our south. So while I’m not worried yet this is the opposite of what is prefer to see right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 12 Author Share Posted February 12 1 minute ago, psuhoffman said: I’d prefer it showed some amped up monster even if it was rain. Not because of any seasonal trend. Because of THIS setup. With this setup even if the storm was over amped we would get a good snow/ice event before any flip to rain. Those runs 2 days ago were about the worst it could get in terms of too amped. That’s the advantage of this kind of blocking. Even a cutter gets turned east and secondaries and you get a thump snow at the least. The total fail option is a weak wave that gets suppressed to our south. So while I’m not worried yet this is the opposite of what is prefer to see right now. Generally, it is better to see amp'd, but we're not even at a close enough range to worry about it. I think I like Mitch's breakpoint of 120 hours. 144 to be generous Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 12 Author Share Posted February 12 3 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said: Wonder if the strength of the block and how much it relaxes is gonna be in play here...Man I'd love to have a juicy stj wave right now, lol I hope it's modeled way too strong rn 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 1 minute ago, psuhoffman said: I’d prefer it showed some amped up monster even if it was rain. Not because of any seasonal trend. Because of THIS setup. With this setup even if the storm was over amped we would get a good snow/ice event before any flip to rain. Those runs 2 days ago were about the worst it could get in terms of too amped. That’s the advantage of this kind of blocking. Even a cutter gets turned east and secondaries and you get a thump snow at the least. The total fail option is a weak wave that gets suppressed to our south. So while I’m not worried yet this is the opposite of what is prefer to see right now. And this is where you'd really prefer a nino-like stj wave instead, isn't it? This one on the current modeling has looked a bit wimpy. Diary of a wimpy wave? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 There was room for that storm to trend west on the Icon looking at the h5. It was more an issue of a weak POS wave than being blocked on this run. It also might have been about to bomb and turn up looking at the flow. There was more ridging. Just needed the upper low to turn negative quicker. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 Just now, psuhoffman said: There was room for that storm to trend west on the Icon looking at the h5. It was more an issue of a weak POS wave than being blocked on this run. It also might have been about to bomb and turn up looking at the flow. There was more ridging. Just needed the upper low to turn negative quicker. What does POS stand for? At first, when folks were using it lowercase I thought it was just slang for piece of *expletive* because the wave was too weak, lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Herb@MAWS Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 3 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said: What does POS stand for? At first, when folks were using it lowercase I thought it was just slang for piece of *expletive* because the wave was too weak, lol Context seemingly the same with all-caps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 8 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: There was room for that storm to trend west on the Icon looking at the h5. It was more an issue of a weak POS wave than being blocked on this run. It also might have been about to bomb and turn up looking at the flow. There was more ridging. Just needed the upper low to turn negative quicker. That went thru my mind too. Some ridging in front of it off the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 54 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Care to share? lol Don't want to get anyone's hopes up, but I saw 2/5/2010 for 6-10 day and 2/14/2015 for 11-15. That's just from 00z today 2 1 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 Gfs 150hrs looks more than a little different from 6z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 12 Author Share Posted February 12 Well, GFS H5 is vastly different so far out mid/west Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 12 Author Share Posted February 12 1 minute ago, mitchnick said: Gfs 150hrs looks more than a little different from 6z. Differences continue, trust me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 Just now, mitchnick said: Gfs 150hrs looks more than a little different from 6z. The suspense builds ....... If you build it they will come 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 12 Author Share Posted February 12 So, yeah. I dunno. It appears a good difference, but it looked like this last night when I called a premature F word...so I'm not really getting my hopes up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 12 Author Share Posted February 12 It's a better run for sure, still don't know if it's gonna be the big one we need. But it is a better snow so far vs 6z 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 12 Author Share Posted February 12 Yeah, it's a pretty good hit so far, but NOT some super duper MECS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 Sure is a lot of blocking up top...not much southern stream influence, though? Looks like a congrats, southern crew. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 12 Author Share Posted February 12 Well actually next panel is even better, lol 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 At least we know central VA will get hit 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 12 Author Share Posted February 12 Just now, 87storms said: Sure is a lot of blocking up top...not much southern stream influence, though? Looks like a congrats, southern crew. Can you see my posts? lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 12 Author Share Posted February 12 Just now, mitchnick said: At least we know central VA will get hit No, we all do 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 12 Author Share Posted February 12 It's actually FOLKS worthy if the SV maps are right 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 H5 had the vort slower allowing the vort off the NE to clear and I didn't see a kicker. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paleocene Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 Looks dank 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 Just now, stormtracker said: No, we all do Well it had to come through them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 12 Author Share Posted February 12 Again, my SV maps are probably fucked, so wait for the pretty ones. Looks like 10-15 for most of us. FDK east 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rjvanals Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 Its about a foot in DC more towards baltimore sleet makes it to 95 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 Weird evolution Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now