pazzo83 Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 On 2/12/2025 at 4:48 AM, ravensrule said: Lol, I don’t have any kids in school. The joys of being @mitchnickgrandfather. Expand lol i knew that you old mf'er 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 12 Author Share Posted February 12 On 2/12/2025 at 4:54 AM, pazzo83 said: NBC4 said DC gov't is opening at 10am - is BOE under that? Expand Yep. Didn't even see that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 12 Author Share Posted February 12 Euro slides S and E too. Seems like they all align for tonight 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 EPS 5 day mean. Captures both waves 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 On 2/12/2025 at 6:59 AM, psuhoffman said: EPS 5 day mean. Captures both waves Super discouraged tonight as gefs and eps both show slider look for Feb 20The 24hr precip panel was so robust just 36 hours ago Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 0Z AI is now a hit but favors east of I95 with heaviest. Not the nightmare of Boxing Day as it's probably a moderate hit for many in the forum west of the Bay. It's big for coastal NJ north and east with I95 doing better once into NJ. ENE is the big winner with a Blizzard likely. Details in a while on 3rd party sites like TT. H-squared (Heisey & Hoffman) will undoubtedly say it's not far from something much bigger forumwide, because it's not! Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 The pattern is going to dump a lot of snow after Feb 20! I know this because my right knee is killing me again. Its gonna be full of potential, multiple chances for snow. Besides, we ARE overdue for a genuine Kocin-Uccellini blizzard in DC! It's gonna dump 34 inches of snow in DC and be called the KU-Jebman Blizzard of 2025. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 WB 6Z GFS; wintry mix for Saturday. 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 12 Author Share Posted February 12 6z Gfs better for the 20th Storm. Much improved. Still not there yet, but improvements vs 0z. actually gets about 4" up to DC S and E now. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 On 2/12/2025 at 10:20 AM, stormtracker said: 6z Gfs better for the 20th Storm. Much improved. Still not there yet, but improvements vs 0z. actually gets about 4" up to DC S and E now. Expand DC is a snow town, but I'm not telling you anything you already didn't know. It just wants to snow. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 On 2/12/2025 at 10:20 AM, stormtracker said: 6z Gfs better for the 20th Storm. Much improved. Still not there yet, but improvements vs 0z. actually gets about 4" up to DC S and E now. Expand The differences between the gfs and euro for both this weekend and next weeks storms is lol. Not even close. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 On 2/12/2025 at 11:47 AM, TSSN+ said: The differences between the gfs and euro for both this weekend and next weeks storms is lol. Not even close. Expand Gfs and maybe the Nam a little are the only 2 models that snows on us Saturday morning. Not buying it. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 On 2/12/2025 at 11:47 AM, TSSN+ said: The differences between the gfs and euro for both this weekend and next weeks storms is lol. Not even close. Expand Gfs was pretty good with yesterday insisting on that heavy band down south. That reason and it's the snowiest model are the only reasons I need to go with it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 On 2/12/2025 at 8:02 AM, mitchnick said: 0Z AI is now a hit but favors east of I95 with heaviest. Not the nightmare of Boxing Day as it's probably a moderate hit for many in the forum west of the Bay. It's big for coastal NJ north and east with I95 doing better once into NJ. ENE is the big winner with a Blizzard likely. Details in a while on 3rd party sites like TT. H-squared (Heisey & Hoffman) will undoubtedly say it's not far from something much bigger forumwide, because it's not! Lol Expand Here's the qpf for next week that's snow in the metro areas on north and east that falls as snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 On 2/12/2025 at 12:40 PM, mitchnick said: Here's the qpf for next week that's snow in the metro areas on north and east that falls as snow.The damn kicker showing up that comes off the PAC behind the main shortwave is really annoying.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 On 2/12/2025 at 12:59 PM, Heisy said: The damn kicker showing up that comes off the PAC behind the main shortwave is really annoying. . Expand It's always something that seemingly comes out of nowhere as the event nears that gets us, which is why the longer range progs are always the snowiest. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 I'm interested. Some good analogs popping up here. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 On 2/12/2025 at 12:59 PM, Heisy said: The damn kicker showing up that comes off the PAC behind the main shortwave is really annoying. . Expand 6z a little further east knocking down qpf. Pure guess would be by .10". Not shocking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 On 2/12/2025 at 12:59 PM, Heisy said: The damn kicker showing up that comes off the PAC behind the main shortwave is really annoying. . Expand Typical issue, if not our snow climo would be much higher. Another way to miss besides the North , East and South issues. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 It's gonna change the next run (and the 50 runs after that) 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 On 2/12/2025 at 1:16 PM, Terpeast said: It's gonna change the next run (and the 50 runs after that) Expand Yeah. I was thinking this morning that yesterday's event didn't come into clearer focus until Thursday. I remember because I was talking to someone about what models Wednesday night were showing before 12z came out and how the 6z Euro first showed the push south. Of course a lot changed on the models as the days passed, but the point is it wasn't until 120hrs out until the general idea showed itself. Every storm is different, but using the 120hrs period as the benchmark, it'll be this weekend before we should expect to have a better handle on the outcome. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gopper Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 On 2/12/2025 at 10:20 AM, stormtracker said: 6z Gfs better for the 20th Storm. Much improved. Still not there yet, but improvements vs 0z. actually gets about 4" up to DC S and E now. Expand I hate those 2 letters!! 1 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 On 2/12/2025 at 1:30 PM, mitchnick said: Yeah. I was thinking this morning that yesterday's event didn't come into clearer focus until Thursday. I remember because I was talking to someone about what models Wednesday night were showing before 12z came out and how the 6z Euro first showed the push south. Of course a lot changed on the models as the days passed, but the point is it wasn't until 120hrs out until the general idea showed itself. Every storm is different, but using the 120hrs period as the benchmark, it'll be this weekend before we should expect to have a better handle on the outcome.Just saw 6z euro Ai, yea that kicker is even worst this run. Ugh. . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 On 2/12/2025 at 1:47 PM, Heisy said: Just saw 6z euro Ai, yea that kicker is even worst this run. Ugh. . Expand We can’t slow the pac down which has been our issue all winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 On 2/12/2025 at 2:04 PM, Allsnow said: We can’t slow the pac down which has been our issue all winter Expand I just wonder how this changes once we are in phase 8 long enough for the models to adjust. That said, some models now want to delay the move into phase 8 including the bias corrected Euro and Canadian, but they are the minority. If there is a delay, idk what that does because it would be stuck in phase 7 with a weak wave for a week. Operational Euro and other models get us into phase 8 today or tomorrow. Probably going to need to wait until tomorrow to see if modeling has found another way to screw our expectations. Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 AO going positive faster, wondering the implications if correct. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 Hope next week hits. I'm only at about 55% of climo. Have 4 weeks roughly to get there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Darkstorm Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 On 2/12/2025 at 2:45 PM, Chris78 said: Hope next week hits. I'm only at about 55% of climo. Have 4 weeks roughly to get there. Expand Definitely a season of fails and nickel and dimes out here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 On 2/12/2025 at 1:04 PM, Terpeast said: I'm interested. Some good analogs popping up here. Expand Care to share? lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 On 2/12/2025 at 1:30 PM, mitchnick said: Yeah. I was thinking this morning that yesterday's event didn't come into clearer focus until Thursday. I remember because I was talking to someone about what models Wednesday night were showing before 12z came out and how the 6z Euro first showed the push south. Of course a lot changed on the models as the days passed, but the point is it wasn't until 120hrs out until the general idea showed itself. Every storm is different, but using the 120hrs period as the benchmark, it'll be this weekend before we should expect to have a better handle on the outcome. Expand It's the five day rule with these models. Seems like it always is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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