WxUSAF Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 EPS H5 looks quite nice for the 20th and 25th 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 9 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: loop the op euro h5, how that managed not to snow on us is just.... if we fail that way... For those without access it tracks two closed H5 lows right over us but both have nothing at the surface due to messy phases between multiple waves. But that there would be more of a luck thing as opposed to "that" problem, correct? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 7 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said: So then what makes next week a favorable period in light of the block just getting established? Blocking is getting established this week...Feb 20th is the second wave, the PD wave is the one to kick start the favorable window. But it's possible the wave around Feb 24 ends up an even better setup...but its hard to say I like both right now honestly. Feb 20 Setup @Stormchaserchuck1 close enough to 50/50? I can see why suppression "could" be a concern if the wave isn't amplified enough...but thats why we like blocking...it allows us to root for a more amplified wave. That's how we get big storms. Not complaining about this snow mean either at day 10! But the next wave has a better PNA ridge to work with and might be in a better place to amplify...if the first wave is suppressed that might be a better shot. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 1 minute ago, Maestrobjwa said: But that there would be more of a luck thing as opposed to "that" problem, correct? yes, I don't think we are going to have "that" problem... let's not worry about any problem until it actually happens. Life's too short 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 Ya'll know I will be the first person to lay it on ya straight when I think things are going sideways with some depressing "uh oh" post. It's way too early for that shit. The pattern is damn near perfect. Model runs will bounce around some with details because of the lead time here...but the fact they are all around us with big hits or near misses is a good thing. We just have to wait a few days now to see how the details start to line up. There is going to be a wave in our area with the chance to amplify along the east coast. That is the point of getting this pattern. The details that will determine exactly where gets snow will be dependent on subtle factors we won't know until much closer. 8 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 loop the op euro h5, how that managed not to snow on us is just.... if we fail that way... For those without access it tracks two closed H5 lows right over us but both have nothing at the surface due to messy phases between multiple waves. Not to compare events but I mentioned last night how the h5 progression is sort of March 01-ish but it’s so far out who knows . 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 Just now, Heisy said: Not to compare events but I mentioned last night how the h5 progression is sort of March 01-ish but it’s so far out who knows . OMFG get that ish out of here 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 1 minute ago, psuhoffman said: yes, I don't think we are going to have "that" problem... let's not worry about any problem until it actually happens. Life's too short Oh I'm not as worried about any other fail mechanisms--just that one because that nightmare scenario would be more "this storm and storms in the future" rather than just a fail this time. Yes the 9-year snowhole SUCKS and missing to the south again would kinda hurt. But at least we would still be in the game in a future winter. I think I'm slowly learning to shake off the fails a little more and just move on to the next threat and/or next winter. Fail happens, ya feel it a bit for a day, then the mental/spiritual reset. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 Potential for multiple events in the long range. Always good to have a backup plan. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 @Heisy besides I once posted the H5 for 3 epic snowstorms and 3 epic fails and blocked the dates and no one could differentiate between them. It's kind of luck with synoptic variables that determines the surface details and the difference between some close miss like that and actually getting the 2ft models teased us with until 24 hours out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 2 minutes ago, Heisy said: Not to compare events but I mentioned last night how the h5 progression is sort of March 01-ish but it’s so far out who knows . I like how you just drop that out there with reckless abandon, lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 Just now, Maestrobjwa said: Oh I'm not as worried about any other fail mechanisms--just that one because that nightmare scenario would be more "this storm and storms in the future" rather than just a fail this time. Yes the 9-year snowhole SUCKS and missing to the south again would kinda hurt. But at least we would still be in the game in a future winter. I think I'm slowly learning to shake off the fails a little more and just move on to the next threat and/or next winter. Fail happens, ya feel it a bit for a day, then the mental/spiritual reset. ok sure but I just want to get a classic amplifying coastal bomb snowstorm where I get to analyze where the deform is gonna be and most OMG images at the 2"/hr rates and worry about the exact track of some 980 monster and say "tucked" 25 times... 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 3 minutes ago, Amped said: Potential for multiple events in the long range. Always good to have a backup plan. F backup plan I want them both 2 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 7 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: ok sure but I just want to get a classic amplifying coastal bomb snowstorm where I get to analyze where the deform is gonna be and most OMG images at the 2"/hr rates and worry about the exact track of some 980 monster and say "tucked" 25 times... Yes sir! Been waiting 9 years yo say that again! P.S. You responded earlier just after I went past your place of employment right around the corner from mine, lol I'm always thinking "Hey PSU!!" and how far down you drive to do that. Now THAT is dedication to snow AND profession Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 3 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said: Yes sir! Been waiting 9 years yo say that again! P.S. You responded earlier just after I went past your place of employment right around the corner from mine, lol I'm always thinking "Hey PSU!!" and how far down you drive to do that. Now THAT is dedication to snow AND profession I'm actually not in the office today, they are renovating and so I'm working from home this week, other than Thursday when I am helping with a PD at my old school where I worked for 18 years! I do get to work from home one day a week now which helps a LOT and they are pretty understanding when there is weather letting us work home unless there is an important board meeting or something that day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 EPS at day 15 is even BETTER today! Feb 20 and 24 both look good and there is going to be at least one more very good wave window after that probably around Feb 28-Mar2 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 3 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 3 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: I'm actually not in the office today, they are renovating and so I'm working from home this week, other than Thursday when I am helping with a PD at my old school where I worked for 18 years! I do get to work from home one day a week now which helps a LOT and they are pretty understanding when there is weather letting us work home unless there is an important board meeting or something that day. And keeps the long range thread "HOT " 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 someone else see Feb 25 on the GEFS...I don't want to be the one to say it...what that is way too close to in terms of a setup Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 3 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: WOOF !!!! Bring it home psu !!!! I beg you ..... That is an Epic look . 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 1 minute ago, frd said: And keeps the long range thread "HOT " Unfortunately 90% of what I do now is data and budgets and progress monitoring which isn't my favorite, I miss teaching but this is way better for my kids, flexible hours and days and more pay, but I can sit here and toggle between my spreadsheets and weather lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 1 minute ago, psuhoffman said: someone else see Feb 25 on the GEFS...I don't want to be the one to say it...what that is way too close to in terms of a setup March 2001? Boxing day 2010? 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 I like how you just drop that out there with reckless abandon, lolHaha, posted this last night. Why can’t we get the March 2001 version that the models had few days out where it phases in time?! . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 1 minute ago, psuhoffman said: Unfortunately 90% of what I do now is data and budgets and progress monitoring which isn't my favorite, I miss teaching but this is way better for my kids, flexible hours and days and more pay, but I can sit here and toggle between my spreadsheets and weather lol So cool, and fun ! A win - win. Well, a win for the kids and a win for posting the lastest maps. All good ! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 2 minutes ago, North Balti Zen said: March 2001? Boxing day 2010? no not close in a bad way 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 12Z AI getting it's act together for the 20th. Not quite there but it's headed toward a big event. Scroll forward. All precip is snow thru the 23rd. https://charts.ecmwf.int/products/aifs_medium-mslp-rain?base_time=202502111200&interval=12&projection=opencharts_north_america&valid_time=202502191200 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlexD1990 Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 Just now, psuhoffman said: no not close in a bad way 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bncho Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 I can't wait for the people stressing over the GFS giving them 18 inches instead of 21 on 2/19. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 Just now, AlexD1990 said: Think full latitude negatively tilted trough from the Arctic to Florida 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlexD1990 Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 1 minute ago, psuhoffman said: Think full latitude negatively tilted trough from the Arctic to Florida I was 3. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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