psuhoffman Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 @Maestrobjwa but I think this time will work. This winter has been colder. The pacific base state isn’t has hostile. Look at this weeks it’s snowing in what was a torch pattern the last 8 years usually. So it should work better, if it doesn’t…uh oh. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 Mitch I need an update that the 6z euro Ai is a hit for the 20th . 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 2 minutes ago, Heisy said: Mitch I need an update that the 6z euro Ai is a hit for the 20th . It's a mess. This is the 3rd run in a row with 2 areas of precip and main area is a low offshore that clips ENE. I didn't bother posting because you know it does crazy stuff post day 5 like all modeling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 It's a mess. This is the 3rd run in a row with 2 areas of precip and main area is a low offshore that clips ENE. I didn't bother posting because you know it does crazy stuff post day 5 like all modeling.Haha no worries being sarcastic. Yeah so far it’s basically messy progression. Long way to go. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 Just now, mitchnick said: It's a mess. This is the 3rd run in a row with 2 areas of precip and main area is a low offshore that clips ENE. I didn't bother posting because you know it does crazy stuff post day 5 like all modeling. Scroll this forward. There aren't any nice 500mb map depictions on the Euro site. Wait for TT. https://charts.ecmwf.int/products/aifs_medium-mslp-rain?base_time=202502110600&interval=6&projection=opencharts_north_america&valid_time=202502181800 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 2 hours ago, mitchnick said: Coastal is indicated by the snowfall mean. Highest risk might be a miss to the East for us, or at the least an issue the further North you go, despite the higher mean. Blocking still being worked out by the models. Have to check out the latest AO. I believe the NP block might trend even stonger and last longer as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 Wow, the AO continues to drop further down, today's concensus is a - 5 SD AO. A decent amount of members take it below 6 SD and the recovery back up to neutral is postponed. This again raises the bar for a rather potent MECS sometimes next week or the week after. The other indices also continue to improve in the PNA and NAO domains as well. 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 Just now, frd said: Wow, the AO continues to drop further down, today's concensus is a - 5 SD AO. A decent amount of members take it below 6 SD and the recovery back up to neutral is postponed. This again raises the bar for a rather potent MECS sometimes next week or the week after. The other indices also continue to improve in the PNA and NAO domains as well. Don't even suggest to me it goes to our south, or else! Lol 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 Just now, mitchnick said: Don't even suggest to me it goes to our south, or else! Lol My money is on miss East this time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 7 minutes ago, North Balti Zen said: My money is on miss East this time. If there would be a fail scenario, I would MUCH rather it be that one. The other would indicate a bigger problem as PSU explained. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 2 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said: If there would be a fail scenario, I would MUCH rather it be that one. The other would indicate a bigger problem as PSU explained. If that happens it is still a fail, and it further reduces the historical connection between favorable indices and measurable snowfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 I won't be surprised if the d10ish window fails. Analogs haven't been promising. That has been the case all year. The ensemble means look similar to some bigger storm windows but when you look under the hood, no good storms are getting analog'd. We'll except for one right now... Feb 2007 is popping pretty good. Many hated that storm because it was grape nuts instead of flakes lol but that glacier was one for the books. I started putting much more emphasis on analogs last 5 years or so and it's remarkably accurate (in a long lead sense). Even our best looks in real time didn't have analog support. Last year that pattern was door to door. I'm not pooping in cereal bowls though because history rarely duplicates verbatim and this year has been productive in it's own way. Current analog sets show a high chance at some sort of coastal during the 5 day period centered around the 20th but there has yet to be much support for a solid or classic storm. Feb 2004 is popping right now as well. The ground truth of that year looks terrible on paper but man it was close to something memorable... There is historical precedence for the upcoming window to be messier than at first glance. If that changes I'll update this line of thinking but for right now, my money is on a storm happening that can break in any direction with ease. 5 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JenkinsJinkies Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 2 hours ago, psuhoffman said: But all that is a fancy way of saying “is it getting too warm for that setup to work anymore?” We could debate how much of that warmer issue is from warm Gulf of Mexico and Atlantic SSTs or “you know what” or a decade pacific cycle but the question remains “in the current thermal base state does that work”. My answer is it better because those plots show exactly how we get 90% of our big snowstorms. Again progressive waves are not going to replace that part of our snow climo. Baltimore is not getting a 30 or 40” winter or a 20” hecs from a epo progressive wave pattern. That isn’t the path to our big snowy winters or storms. So you mean to tell me it can be possible for the deep south to score like it did and we permanently lose those big once/twice in a decade big snows? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 As depicted this window looks promising for a potential coastal storm with ample cold in place. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlexD1990 Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 11 minutes ago, CAPE said: As depicted this window looks promising for a potential coastal storm with ample cold in place. My biggest fear for the lowlands would be a wound up system that's mainly rain east of 95. Obviously that's also climo favored this late in the season as well. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 11 Author Share Posted February 11 GFS has snow so far on the 20th. impressive wedge down to like GA. Seem precarious tho 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 11 Author Share Posted February 11 So far, next frame...still holding. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 11 Author Share Posted February 11 Ok, finally lose them. This a totally new evolution of this one. Ah, the good ol GFS 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 Just now, stormtracker said: Ok, finally lose them. This a totally new evolution of this one. Ah, the good ol GFS We get smacked pretty good first - 4-6" before mixy to rain? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 Pass. We can do better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 GGEM is a hit of some magnitude. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 11 Author Share Posted February 11 1 minute ago, WxUSAF said: GGEM is a hit of some magnitude. Yeah, looks like it's gearing up. Yeah 210hr is nice Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 GGEM is a hit of some magnitude.Only 9 days of relentless tracking and emotional rollercoasters to go! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 11 Author Share Posted February 11 9 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said: We get smacked pretty good first - 4-6" before mixy to rain? I mean, we'd take at this point with an option to get better Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 11 Author Share Posted February 11 Looks like 6-10 on Pivotal? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 4 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: GGEM is a hit of some magnitude. 3 minutes ago, stormtracker said: Yeah, looks like it's gearing up. Yeah 210hr is nice @CAPE Rehobeth blizzard. 5-10” for metros more or less. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 2 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: @CAPE Rehobeth blizzard. 5-10” for metros more or less. Wanted to post the kuchie but it’s awful - rates must be like 5:1? So here’s the 10:1 instead. Looking at temps I can’t possibly understand why they are so low 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 55 minutes ago, JenkinsJinkies said: So you mean to tell me it can be possible for the deep south to score like it did and we permanently lose those big once/twice in a decade big snows? The fact it's been colder this year is one reason I am optimistic. But, if we are going to explore the possibility, no the deep south getting one snowstorm does not mean we are good to go and everythings fine. Anomalies will still happen. And their mechanism for snow from that was an EPO driven arctic show and a progressive wave along the gulf coast...that isn't our mechanism for big snow seasons up here...for the same reason it works for them...they are random and scattershot and they can end up anywhere...there is nothing about that pattern that focuses snow in our geographic area...depending on minor amplitude changes and trough locations the snow can end up way to our north or way to our south...or if we get lucky over us, but its not the reliable pattern for big snows here. So it's a totally unrelated phenomenon to whether a -AO/NAO driven blocking pattern still works AS OFTEN. The "as often" part is the key. I am not saying it wont ever work...I'm not even saying it wont work this time, I think it will...but if it continues to not work for the same reason we do have to discuss how often does it still work and how reduced is our snow climo due to that change in what has always been our most reliable mechanism for snow. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 40 minutes ago, AlexD1990 said: My biggest fear for the lowlands would be a wound up system that's mainly rain east of 95. Obviously that's also climo favored this late in the season as well. My biggest fear is its 10 days away and ANYTHING can happen...but the details we can see for this range are pretty good setup for a snowstorm in our area. Trying to get more at this range is risky BTW this is NOT our only chance...its our FIRST chance in the window Feb 20-March 10 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 16 minutes ago, stormtracker said: I mean, we'd take at this point with an option to get better It's a weird setup. A sweep of diffuse energy *potentially* rounding the tpv. Some iterations show multiple impulses and others more cohesive. The tpv can put a lot of oomph into forcing a ridge in front no matter what. The axis is all over the place with the globals for how energy surges north or even how the tpv evolves. I can see just about any outcome including a cohesive big dog. The flavor of winter has favored diffuse and messy/tricky. No big real estate storms and we've had some setups that could have popped and had more than 1 subforum do well lol. Hard to bet against the flavor imo but it's the most interesting setup we've had so far Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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