Weather Will Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 Big storm but rain/ snow TBD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 16 minutes ago, Weather Will said: Big storm but rain/ snow TBD. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 2 minutes ago, mitchnick said: Now that would just be dumbdy-dumb and would go in the logbook. Glad it's D10+! 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 2 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 Just now, Maestrobjwa said: Now that would just be dumbdy-dumb and would go in the logbook. Glad it's D10+! Probably seen a hundred of those maps BEFORE I moved from Linthicum. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 the EPS is wild again. stronger -NAO and 50/50, too, which I like. strong confluence is always a good thing here 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 1 minute ago, brooklynwx99 said: the EPS is wild again. stronger -NAO and 50/50, too, which I like. strong confluence is always a good thing here It's soooo hard to get that perfect combo when you've got all the fuel for a monster snow. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 WB 0Z EPS still favors a more coastal track but has some inland runners like the EURO global run at OZ. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 At 210hrs, an impressive 24 snowfall mean begins its march across the country toward the east coast. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 Eps favoring an inland solution as the operational on this run. 24hr snowfall at 246hrs. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 Actually, slp mean is clearly offshore, but I think those few deep, inland Eps member may be skewing the snowfall mean. EDIT: Like that 975mb over DC. Lol 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 just a massive signal here 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 6 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said: just a massive signal here Ya there was also a massive signal for this event tomorrow showing 8” plus from VA to the northeast. Hard to believe till I see it. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 7 minutes ago, TSSN+ said: Ya there was also a massive signal for this event tomorrow showing 8” plus from VA to the northeast. Hard to believe till I see it. This would be a different kind of setup. Not saying anything is a sure bet, of course...but this time there would be good blocking, from what I understand. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 11 Author Share Posted February 11 Storm on the 20th starting to consistently show up. Cold just close by for the lowlanders. Hopefully that gets better. N and W get shellacked on the 6z GFS. Lot of precip. Verbatim it would be painful for the cities...thermals are just west. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 Storm on the 20th starting to consistently show up. Cold just close by for the lowlanders. Hopefully that gets better. N and W get shellacked on the 6z GFS. Lot of precip. Verbatim it would be painful for the cities...thermals are just west.This storm is happening...based on seasonal trends congrats Chester Sent from my SM-A515U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 WB 6Z GFS 20th storm 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 11 Author Share Posted February 11 2 minutes ago, Ji said: This storm is happening...based on seasonal trends congrats Chester Sent from my SM-A515U using Tapatalk It probably gonna happen. just gotta get those thermals more S and E 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 5 minutes ago, Weather Will said: WB 6Z GFS 20th storm Meh 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 Pretty sure we need to ban "log book" that got old fast. I was excited to see a bunch of pages in here only to find a bunch of log book references and mentions of that storm that created Ji Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowenOutThere Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 6 hours ago, ravensrule said: I could be your father, now that’s scary. Technically as a mid 2000s kid you could be my grandfather 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 WB 6Z GEFS does not have an inland track etched in stone like the amped GFS. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 5 hours ago, TSSN+ said: Ya there was also a massive signal for this event tomorrow showing 8” plus from VA to the northeast. Hard to believe till I see it. Yeah but we will have a much better upper level setup this time around. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mikeymac5306 Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 1 hour ago, Weather Will said: WB 6Z GFS 20th storm 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 7 minutes ago, Weather Will said: WB 6Z GEFS does not have an inland track etched in stone like the amped GFS. Coastal is indicated by the snowfall mean. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 Coastal is indicated by the snowfall mean.Where is the rest of it? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 16 minutes ago, mitchnick said: Coastal is indicated by the snowfall mean. A nice improvement over 0z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 Hey @psuhoffman how real is the risk of the SER this go around? To my amateur eyes that may be the only way this fails (or at least...doesn't snow as much as it could have). A post from the NYC forum: 1 hour ago, bluewave said: Yeah, the risk around the 20th is the -AO linking up with the Southeast Ridge again. This would result in the low hugging the coast. So the inland regions could really cash in while the coast gets another mixed precipitation event. Still too early to be sure since it’s outside the model reliable range. Just about every other February -AO in the -4 to -5 range had a KU within about a week or so of the occurrence. Like in February 2021, 2010, 1978, and 1969. So it would be very disappointing if we get 3 -AO link ups with the Southeast Ridge. I posted the other day how this has become a frequent occurrence in the 2020s. The last -4 AO link up was only a little over 2 years ago in December 2022. Prior to that we had one near -4 in December 2012. Then before that it was in January 1998. So this has become a much more frequent occurrence. Hopefully, we can find a way to buck the trend around the 20th to avoid the cutter, hugger, and suppressed Southern Stream pattern we have been in since 18-19. 2 Southeast Ridge link ups in near term Third one possible around the 20th Now on the ensembles you don't see that linkage as of now... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 Still spread wrt timing obv, but this panel captures the flavor. Members favoring coastal tracks for the most part. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 30 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said: Hey @psuhoffman how real is the risk of the SER this go around? To my amtwur eyes that may be the only way this fails (or at least...doesn't snow as much as it could have). A post from the NYC forum: Now on the ensembles you don't see that linkage as of now... Well let’s be clear what we’re talking about. There is always some ridging in between waves. That’s basic wave physics. Trough ridge trough. What he is calling the SER linkup is just the heights/ridges in between the troughs getting too high. In other words too warm. It simply a function of it being warmer. What 20 years ago would have been white or a shade of blue is now red on that plot. What that could mean on the surface is as the wave/storm approaches the antecedent airmass is now 35 instead of 30. That resists the WAA ahead of the wave less and pushes the thermal boundary NW and now 95 is on the rain side instead of snow. But all that is a fancy way of saying “is it getting too warm for that setup to work anymore?” We could debate how much of that warmer issue is from warm Gulf of Mexico and Atlantic SSTs or “you know what” or a decade pacific cycle but the question remains “in the current thermal base state does that work”. My answer is it better because those plots show exactly how we get 90% of our big snowstorms. Again progressive waves are not going to replace that part of our snow climo. Baltimore is not getting a 30 or 40” winter or a 20” hecs from a epo progressive wave pattern. That isn’t the path to our big snowy winters or storms. Yes it’s concerning this linkage that he is talking about keeps happening for the reason above. We NEED that to work for us. So I’m going to keep beating my head into this wall and praying blocking starts working again until it’s been proven 100% if can’t and at that point I’ll put my cap on the wall, hang up my coat and bid you all a fond farewell and check out for the last time and simply wait a few years until I can move to Vermont where blocking has still been working lately! Because in the end I don’t really do this for a 20” winter or a 5” snow. I track to try to get those 50” wingers and 20” snows we historically get a couple times a decade. And among the way I’ll take those 5” scraps as consolation. But if we can’t get the real goods anymore this will just be frustrating to me and for my health I’ll stop doing it and move somewhere that can still get what I want. 3 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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