stormy Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 9 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said: I think you meant to put this in the other thread. I can certainly do that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 That threat at range is insanely boom or bust. Look at those box and whisker plots lol 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 16 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said: That threat at range is insanely boom or bust. Look at those box and whisker plots lol Do you have BWI? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IronTy Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 22 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said: That threat at range is insanely boom or bust. Look at those box and whisker plots lol Where on WB are you getting those? JB made a post about how to get them not that long ago but, and I consider myself as pretty intelligent, I for the life of me couldn't find them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 This looks ... good! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 18z gfs now on board (fantasy land) of course, but at least Mitch now can say the OPs would be on board. I knew this would happen after looking at the ensembles . 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 10 Author Share Posted February 10 GFS now has the PSU storm like the EUro does 11 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 4 minutes ago, Heisy said: 18z gfs now on board (fantasy land) of course, but at least Mitch now can say the OPs would be on board. I knew this would happen after looking at the ensembles . And the bullseye is DC/BWI. Where do I sign to quit? 1 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 3 minutes ago, Heisy said: 18z gfs now on board (fantasy land) of course, but at least Mitch now can say the OPs would be on board. I knew this would happen after looking at the ensembles . 3 minutes ago, stormtracker said: GFS now has the PSU storm like the EUro does Glad to see that is showing up again in ops runs. I really think we need to keep seeing this show up. There were a couple or so ops GFS runs in the past week that were showing a good storm around the PSU timeframe. Including the ridiculous 40"+ one from 06Z a couple or so days back. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 33 minutes ago, mitchnick said: Do you have BWI? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 26 minutes ago, IronTy said: Where on WB are you getting those? JB made a post about how to get them not that long ago but, and I consider myself as pretty intelligent, I for the life of me couldn't find them. Charts -> Meteograms -> Ensembles (your choice) -> 24hr snow/members 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 Gfs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LeesburgWx Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 The way the GFS pushed the moisture up to us moving NE and then a slow push eastward 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 1 hour ago, Ji said: we need to bring back the old N and W of town will do better thing Besides the fact I’m a big storm chaser and epo driven progressive wave patterns aren’t that… I also probably hate them because I moved way up here to get more snow and those patterns almost eliminate any advantage being NW gives you. It’s just luck where those waves traverse west to east and it’s typically cold enough even on coast as long as you’re north of the boundary. I’d love those patterns if I lived on the Delmarva or the northern neck. For them a wound up coastal can end up problematic because it’s hard to stay on the cold side closer to the coast. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IronTy Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 33 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said: Charts -> Meteograms -> Ensembles (your choice) -> 24hr snow/members Thank you, found them! I was searching all over the direct ensembles sub-menu and couldn't find anything. Didn't realize they were under the charts menu! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 1 hour ago, NorthArlington101 said: That threat at range is insanely boom or bust. Look at those box and whisker plots lol I never really look at these, but they're interesting. Seems like they include data beyond the "1.5 x IQR" threshold because some of those points seem like outliers. Also curious why the control follows the skew more so than the mean. Regardless, that timeframe does kinda line up with more favorable indices. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 GEFS liking it 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 8 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said: GEFS liking it The pattern is locked and loaded. But now it’s time to cash it into snow on the ground. 5 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 24 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said: GEFS liking it Be aware of this pattern though... But the Pacific side is favorable, so it should be cold enough Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 26 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said: Be aware of this pattern though... But the Pacific side is favorable, so it should be cold enough And i thought the shut the F up Chuck was gone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 Besides the fact I’m a big storm chaser and epo driven progressive wave patterns aren’t that… I also probably hate them because I moved way up here to get more snow and those patterns almost eliminate any advantage being NW gives you. It’s just luck where those waves traverse west to east and it’s typically cold enough even on coast as long as you’re north of the boundary. I’d love those patterns if I lived on the Delmarva or the northern neck. For them a wound up coastal can end up problematic because it’s hard to stay on the cold side closer to the coast. Did you do way better in 2013-14 than south and east or was well distributed. I know we destroyed them in the Feb 2014 storm but that was amped. I even turned to sleet ! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 1 hour ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said: Be aware of this pattern though... But the Pacific side is favorable, so it should be cold enough Chuck, first let me say you’re right about the numeric NAO, because of how they calculate it (which most don’t know) that’s probably a neutral NAO. But everything else I’m like ???? First of all that vortex is a hair off from 50/50 and because of how the heights curve on that map it’s more east not north of 50/50. If you go back a day it’s centered right over 50/50. As it is with the wave before, but it doesn’t matter because there is a huge SER that’s not had time to get beat down due to still hostile pacific forcing. And if that 50/50 location doesn’t work then now did this or this happen? The Atlantic vortex was in that same spot for two of our biggest HECS storms. 2 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 +NAO is a wetter pattern.. so a slightly displaced NE 50/50 low can correlate with storms.. and snowstorms if the Pacific is favorable. The pattern looks somewhat like 13-14 and 14-15, with the monster +NAO those Winter's just south this time and +ridging over Greenland and AO zone. The important point about 50/50 low though is where it is when storms are coming.. because it shifts around a lot.. is it a south-based +NAO for the storm, or an ideal 50/50 low? I was just pointing out that the map brooklynwx posted, it's not a slam dunk for arctic air.. an Atlantic SLP gradient in that spot actually has a slight correlation with SE ridge... doesn't mean it can't snow. Again, +NAO like that one, with a favorable Pacific is a snow pattern. precip is +0.50 correlated to +NAO, which in this case may slightly overlap 50/50 low some of the time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 9 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: or this happen? The Atlantic vortex was in that same spot for two of our biggest HECS storms. They look +NAO to me. Just confirms that our best snowstorms happen with favorable Pacific and +NAO (that's why negative heading to neutral is so strong.. -NAO is actually a very dry pattern). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 1 hour ago, Ji said: Did you do way better in 2013-14 than south and east or was well distributed. I know we destroyed them in the Feb 2014 storm but that was amped. I even turned to sleet ! Yes but there were extenuating circumstances. First of all the boundary ended up set up about the same place a lot. And it was just luck that it set up where it did. I was up in central PA that one year and got a lot less snow then Manchester that winter. It was just dumb luck the waves went where they did. Also there were two very amplified storms that season in Feb and March where we jacked up here. But compared to the mean I won’t do as well up here over the long run in an epo driven wave pattern. If that was the pediment pattern every winter for example (using years with that predominant pattern like 2009, 2018, 2022) the avg snow for here would probably be like 26” instead of 40 and the avg snow for somewhere like where @CAPE lives would be like 18” which might even be above the overall avg. Yea being NW would help some but not nearly as much as it does in a more amplified blocking pattern! This area can go over 80” in a winter, even 100”! But most of those years had blocking and amplified storms not progressive wave patterns. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 3 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said: They look +NAO to me. Just confirms that our best snowstorms happen with favorable Pacific and +NAO (that's why negative heading to neutral is so strong.. -NAO is actually a very dry pattern). On the day of those storms yes numerically the NAO was neutral to positive. But there had been blocking and I consider the loading pattern days before more important. Second most don’t consider the nao by the numerical metric. If they see ridging near Greenland over a vortex under it near 50/50 they call it a -NAO, but numerically it’s actually a -AO. But I’m not interested in a semantics argument about terms. My point is that’s a good pattern for a snowstorm. I don’t care what we call it. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_warlock Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 6 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: On the day of those storms yes numerically the NAO was neutral to positive. But there had been blocking and I consider the loading pattern days before more important. Second most don’t consider the nao by the numerical metric. If they see ridging near Greenland over a vortex under it near 50/50 they call it a -NAO, but numerically it’s actually a -AO. But I’m not interested in a semantics argument about terms. My point is that’s a good pattern for a snowstorm. I don’t care what we call it. Amen brother!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 Here's 20 top analogs to the Atlantic/Arctic pattern Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Daniel Boone Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 20 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said: Here's 20 top analogs to the Atlantic/Arctic pattern Some good one's in there. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 3 hours ago, psuhoffman said: The pattern is locked and loaded. But now it’s time to cash it into snow on the ground. Do you think this is better than the blocking that we had (too late, lol) in March 2018? I ask because...seeing as only one HECS occurred in a Nina, I'm wondering whether the pattern we have setting up next week would be subject to the same stuff that messed things up in 2018. How similar/different would thos be compared to 2018? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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