mitchnick Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 30 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: @Stormchaserchuck1 has focused on the location of the block rightfully pointing out it originates as a AO not NAO block...but not sure I see why it matters in the long run. Here at day 5 the issue isn't the blocking IMO, we have a low right at 50/50 which is the important thing. The reason blocking is important is getting that reaction. PD2 for example didn't have blocking in a classic sense but a PV displacement into the 50/50 space created the same effect for our snow purposes. The issue here is because the tropical forcing is still in the western pacific we have a SER and a hostile PNA. The next wave is getting better but might still have a little too much SER but again the blocking worked the next wave crosses 50/50 also. Finally the next wave will enter this setup With the tropical forcing now into the central pacific phase 8 the trough axis is in the east with a favorable PNA and again we see lower heights across 50/50. Plus even though the block started out north it retrograded to the same spot a greenland block typically ends up, Baffin Island, where west based blocks go to sit and rot and where we typically see them for our big snowstorms. It got there from a slightly further north trajectory initially from a merging of an EPO and Scandy blocks, but as long as it ends up the same place with the same impact on the 50/50 domain I fail to see why it affects our snow chances. The issue with the first 2 waves is the pattern has not matured. Blocking typically starts to set up in Phase 7 but the SER takes until 8 to get beat down. Its a little frustrating that the operationals continue to show thermal issues even once we get the perfect longwave configuration out around day 10+ but I want to wait a few more days and see if they adjust before worrying too much. All 3 major ensemble guidance shows the absolute perfect 100% what we want in every way h5 pattern for a big snowstorm day 12-16 right now. If that doesn't work I don't even know what we are looking for anymore. Maybe we'll get a quick correction with threats as the week continues because the latest Gefs and Eps now get the wave into phase 8 by the Thursday or Friday this week! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cbmclean Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 54 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Sorry for the double post everyone, the initial post was missing something and when I tried to edit it accidentally deleted it and had to re-post. I'm glad you said that, as I was starting to think there was a rip in the space-time continuum as Daniel Boone replied to your post before you made it. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 Euro has the @psuhoffman Storm. Big dog. 9 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighStakes Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 Just now, WxUSAF said: Euro has the @psuhoffman Storm. Big dog. Cold storm too. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DarkSharkWX Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 Just now, WxUSAF said: Euro has the @psuhoffman Storm. Big dog. MECS on euro 10 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cbmclean Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 26 minutes ago, mitchnick said: Maybe we'll get a quick correction with threats as the week continues because the latest Gefs and Eps now get the wave into phase 8 by the Thursday or Friday this week! If nothing else, one positive to take from this year is that we had what appeared to be an impactful trip through the cold phases and then it looks like it's going to zip through the crap phases at a decent clip. It had every excuse to blow up in phase 6; it's a Nina February after all. And if we recall, that's exactly what the GEFS was predicting not long ago, and it probably wasn't a coincidence that the GEFS was also predicting a +100000 dm SER that had Chuck drooling. I don't think this could have happened in 2022, or even last year. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 1 minute ago, DarkSharkWX said: MECS on euro No matter what happens tomorrow, its always nice to know there is something else brewing on the horizon. 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 3 globals really aren’t that far apart at H5 for next week. Subtle placement and strength differences results in a MECS to clear and cold. I’d expect ensembles to be pretty lit up? 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 this is so sick lmao 16 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 EPS lit like a Christmas tree. 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 WB 12Z EPS.... for 10 days out that looks great to me! 11 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 We are in rare air for around here: snow on our doorsteps and another storm on the tracker. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 1 minute ago, Weather Will said: We are in rare air for around here: snow on our doorsteps and another storm on the tracker. AND...during a February in a nina, lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 30 minutes ago, Heisy said: EPS lit like a Christmas tree . 3-4” mean focused on that D10 period. GEPS looks close to EPS on H5, but weaker surface reflection. GEFS farthest off, but still not a bad look. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DarkSharkWX Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 this is quite nice 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 EPS Setup...50/50, west based block, energy diving into the midwest amplifying into the TN Valley 3 day snowfall centered on......Feb 20 6 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 2 hours ago, mitchnick said: Maybe we'll get a quick correction with threats as the week continues because the latest Gefs and Eps now get the wave into phase 8 by the Thursday or Friday this week! There is a bit of a lag though 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 1 minute ago, psuhoffman said: There is a bit of a lag though https://x.com/TrackerSacker/status/1889003317369696267 I post link this for the mind bending animation, not the source, but look at the wave breaking in the NW Atlantic and watch the West Coast and up to Alaska improvements as the model see the MJO phase 8 arrives. Also, a tendency possible between days 10 and days 15 to 16 for multiple threats arriving out of the TN Valley. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighStakes Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 Perhaps the weekend storm cutting will set us up nice for a few days later. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 Perhaps the weekend storm cutting will set us up nice for a few days later. Yeah it’s actually an important step in the progression. It sets up the 50/50 . 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 2 hours ago, DarkSharkWX said: MECS on euro Red rocket storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 1 hour ago, HighStakes said: Perhaps the weekend storm cutting will set us up nice for a few days later. I have actually been rooting for a cutter, looking at the evolution, that definitely helps with a 50/50 for a blocked miller A or hybrid system coming up from the south. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 Euro OP and EPS look almost identical at day 10 which is pretty impressive . 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 Lawd baby jeebus please let one of these hit the far NE crew with warning level snows. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 1 minute ago, aldie 22 said: Lawd baby jeebus please let one of these hit the far NE crew with warning level snows. Will someone PLEASE... get this man a warning (taken from John Wick Chapter 2) 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 42 minutes ago, aldie 22 said: Lawd baby jeebus please let one of these hit the far NE crew with warning level snows. we need to bring back the old N and W of town will do better thing 3 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WVclimo Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 7 minutes ago, Ji said: we need to bring back the old N and W of town will do better thing DCA could very well be ahead of me for the season by Thursday. I think that happened in 2009, but it’s rare. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormy Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 At 6 am the NWS was woefully deficient with their WSW giving my area only 4 - 6 inches. I was and am at 6 - 12. At 3 pm, NWS woke up and raised expectations for Augusta to 5 - 10. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 1 minute ago, stormy said: At 6 am the NWS was woefully deficient with their WSW giving my area only 4 - 6 inches. I was and am at 6 - 12. At 3 pm, NWS woke up and raised expectations for Augusta to 5 - 10. I think you meant to put this in the other thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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