mitchnick Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 Fwiw 18z AI has a 24hr+ snowstorm on 2/21-2/22. 10 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 Fwiw 18z AI has a 24hr+ snowstorm on 2/21-2/22. 1-2 feet or I have no interest 1 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_warlock Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 2 hours ago, mitchnick said: Fwiw 18z AI has a 24hr+ snowstorm on 2/21-2/22. If ya believe that will happen I got beachfront property in Kansas I'll sell ya Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 GFS looks locked and loaded for the 20-21. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 This made me chuckle. Top map is the operational Euro total snowfall from 2/5 12z and bottom is last night's 0z Euro. Poor ENE. They did have a 4-6" event Saturday, but that's still a nasty haircut. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 This made me chuckle. Top map is the operational Euro total snowfall from 2/5 12z and bottom is last night's 0z Euro. Poor ENE. They did have a 4-6" event Saturday, but that's still a nasty haircut.This was last nights euro. I mean I’m shocked this doesn’t lead to a snowstorm, it was close. If that setup is real we’ll see some better runs as we get closer. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 3 minutes ago, Heisy said: This was last nights euro. I mean I’m shocked this doesn’t lead to a snowstorm, it was close. If that setup is real we’ll see some better runs as we get closer . I'm sick of seeing decent looks on ensembles that rarely materialize on the operationals. There's nothing on operationals after this week. Even the 0z AI has a light snow on 2/22, but that could be gone on the 6z. I'll let you know in 20 minutes. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 18 minutes ago, mitchnick said: This made me chuckle. Top map is the operational Euro total snowfall from 2/5 12z and bottom is last night's 0z Euro. Poor ENE. They did have a 4-6" event Saturday, but that's still a nasty haircut. Not very inspiring. After my 3 inches of snow tomorrow night I am thinking about beach season. I don't trust models. Seasonal trend and all. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 20 minutes ago, mitchnick said: I'm sick of seeing decent looks on ensembles that rarely materialize on the operationals. There's nothing on operationals after this week. Even the 0z AI has a light snow on 2/22, but that could be gone on the 6z. I'll let you know in 20 minutes. Amazing how snowy the ensembles were for this week just for it to turn into a Chicago snow pattern 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 Fwiw, AI looking better next week with 3 threats. A light even 2/19, a mod/heavy on 2/21-22, and a final event on 2/25 that's light but heavy precip south of rain & snow which could easily trend better as the 21-22 has over the past few runs. This run is sure to reel Heisey in. Lol 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 Fwiw, AI looking better next week with 3 threats. A light even 2/19, a mod/heavy on 2/21-22, and a final event on 2/25 that's light but heavy precip south of rain & snow which could easily trend better as the 21-22 has over the past few runs. Thus run is sure to reel Heisey in. LolLike I said, looking at the ensembles and some of the OP runs setup it just doesn’t make sense for a cutter. Yeah sure the event next Sunday is because the TPV is in C Canada but after that I’d be surprised . 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 By the way, AI has pushed a lot of precip for tomorrow south. But until other modeling agrees, not worth worrying about. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bncho Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 11 minutes ago, Allsnow said: Amazing how snowy the ensembles were for this week just for it to turn into a Chicago snow pattern I mean, why snowstorms aren't showing on ensembles doesn't really make a ton of sense. However, the 1/6 storm being a cutter didn't make a lot of sense either - we all know what happened then. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 It's almost shocking to me to see the 0z Eps snowfall imby. Basically drops 5.2" between 2/15 and 2/23, and neither the Euro nor any other operational has didly. Fun or sad times ahead I guess. Lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 16 minutes ago, mitchnick said: Fwiw, AI looking better next week with 3 threats. A light even 2/19, a mod/heavy on 2/21-22, and a final event on 2/25 that's light but heavy precip south of rain & snow which could easily trend better as the 21-22 has over the past few runs. This run is sure to reel Heisey in. Lol Whew, i thought you were becoming Ji after your last post. Welcome back Mitch. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 It's almost shocking to me to see the 0z Eps snowfall imby. Basically drops 5.2" between 2/15 and 2/23, and neither the Euro nor any other operational has didly. Fun or sad times ahead I guess. LolRather it be ensembles vs the OPs. I feel fine about the 20th time frame. OPs will come around if that pattern is correct . 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 1 hour ago, Heisy said: Rather it be ensembles vs the OPs. I feel fine about the 20th time frame. OPs will come around if that pattern is correct . It's odd how the past week or so the ensembles have been dropping more snow than the operationals. I can't recall seeing that for such an extended period. It's usually the operationals dumping large amounts and the ensembles being paultry. I'm one confused weenie! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 1 minute ago, mitchnick said: It's odd how the past week or so the ensembles have been dropping more snow than the operationals. I can't recall seeing that for such an extended period. It's usually the operationals dumping large amounts and the ensembles being poultry. I'm one confused weenie! Weenies sometimes get confused and go to the wrong house. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 Another day, another more negative AO forecast. Concensus to -5 SD drop. PNA has trended more positive, but according to this calculation site the NAO forecast from the CPC is neutral. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 36 minutes ago, frd said: Another day, another more negative AO forecast. Concensus to -5 SD drop. PNA has trended more positive, but according to this calculation site the NAO forecast from the CPC is neutral. If you recall, Gfs and other modeling was calling for a PV split this week, then backed off. It's still a good hit, but is now showing a follow-up hit at the end of the run that almost does split it cleanly. Scroll thru this link to see what I'm talking about https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs®ion=nhem&pkg=Tz10&runtime=2025021006&fh=6 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 Mitch gfs looks more like the euro Ai this run with the tpv setup. Wonder where this leads with the energy entering NW (that’s our 20th event). 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 . 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 Not sure if it’s gonna do it, but gfs has a very nice H5 look heading into the @psuhoffman storm 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 12 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: Not sure if it’s gonna do it, but gfs has a very nice H5 look heading into the @psuhoffman storm Falls apart of course. Vort gets lost in the southwest. But setup was there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 Much better patterns on cmc and gfs.. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 Not sure if it’s gonna do it, but gfs has a very nice H5 look heading into the [mention=2304]psuhoffman[/mention] stormYea with that type of pattern I’d venture the ensembles offer some hits if they’re similar . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Daniel Boone Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: @Stormchaserchuck1 has focused on the unusual trajectory of this block, rightfully pointing out it originates as more of an AO than NAO block...but I don't see why it really matters much. In 5 days for example... The next wave is better...but still MIGHT have too much SER but its heading the right way, but agian the next wave ends up right across 50/50 Finally the 3rd wave to come along would be entering into this environment the pacific forcing is now into the central pacific, phase 8, and we see the PNA is now favorable and the trough is centered in the east, and the block as retrograded into the canonical west based baffin island where blocks go to slowly sit and rot. Yea it got there from a further north trajectory but as long as it ends up the same place and causes the same reaction near 50/50 why would it matter much to our snow chance since the reaction near 50/50 is what actually makes the block important. PD2 for example we didn't have blocking in a classical sense but we had a monster PV displacement into the 50/50 that mimicked blocking for our snow purposes. the issue here imo isn't the blocking, there is a vortex right over 50/50 exactly where we want it...but the tropical forcing is still in the western pacific and so there is a SER and the PNA has yet to become favorable so without a lot of antecedent cold that wave is problematicmaybe a snow to rain if there is a split of the energy. Excellent Post and explanation! The great Feb 2015 Pattern featured a solid +NAO BUT, a continual Parade of LP's kept training into SE Canada that in a sense mimicked a standing 50-50. Shows how important that is. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 11 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: Not sure if it’s gonna do it, but gfs has a very nice H5 look heading into the @psuhoffman storm @Stormchaserchuck1 has focused on the location of the block rightfully pointing out it originates as a AO not NAO block...but not sure I see why it matters in the long run. Here at day 5 the issue isn't the blocking IMO, we have a low right at 50/50 which is the important thing. The reason blocking is important is getting that reaction. PD2 for example didn't have blocking in a classic sense but a PV displacement into the 50/50 space created the same effect for our snow purposes. The issue here is because the tropical forcing is still in the western pacific we have a SER and a hostile PNA. The next wave is getting better but might still have a little too much SER but again the blocking worked the next wave crosses 50/50 also. Finally the next wave will enter this setup With the tropical forcing now into the central pacific phase 8 the trough axis is in the east with a favorable PNA and again we see lower heights across 50/50. Plus even though the block started out north it retrograded to the same spot a greenland block typically ends up, Baffin Island, where west based blocks go to sit and rot and where we typically see them for our big snowstorms. It got there from a slightly further north trajectory initially from a merging of an EPO and Scandy blocks, but as long as it ends up the same place with the same impact on the 50/50 domain I fail to see why it affects our snow chances. The issue with the first 2 waves is the pattern has not matured. Blocking typically starts to set up in Phase 7 but the SER takes until 8 to get beat down. Its a little frustrating that the operationals continue to show thermal issues even once we get the perfect longwave configuration out around day 10+ but I want to wait a few more days and see if they adjust before worrying too much. All 3 major ensemble guidance shows the absolute perfect 100% what we want in every way h5 pattern for a big snowstorm day 12-16 right now. If that doesn't work I don't even know what we are looking for anymore. 9 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 Sorry for the double post everyone, the initial post was missing something and when I tried to edit it accidentally deleted it and had to re-post. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JenkinsJinkies Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 It's 10 days out and it looks like the pattern didn't collapse. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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