CAPE Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 This is so close to something good. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 11 minutes ago, Ji said: Didn't look at eps but find the 00z euro out of touch with the projected blocking profile. 30 degrees warmer again than gfs Sent from my SM-A515U using Tapatalk Euro is more amplified and has less confluence/weaker HP to the north. CMC and GFS are pretty similar. CMC already has moderate snow for us and GFS is trending that way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 2 hours ago, CAPE said: Euro is more amplified and has less confluence/weaker HP to the north. CMC and GFS are pretty similar. CMC already has moderate snow for us and GFS is trending that way. Golf or Ski…which one? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 1 hour ago, Solution Man said: Golf or Ski…which one? We simply cannot know yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 GFS not too far from something Friday - hits south VA. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rjvanals Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 The long range is pretty muddled until we get through the Tuesday/Wednesday system Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 5 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said: GFS not too far from something Friday - hits south VA. I agree, h5 doesn’t look bad. Was aimed at us then pump faked. Could turn into something if that energy is real. Looking at the Sunday threat now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 @psuhoffman definitely potential for next Sunday, favors northern tier folks given the slp track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 8 minutes ago, DDweatherman said: @psuhoffman definitely potential for next Sunday, favors northern tier folks given the slp track. This is the one. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 8 minutes ago, DDweatherman said: @psuhoffman definitely potential for next Sunday, favors northern tier folks given the slp track. I've been slightly curious about next weekend, the GFS has gone back and forth somewhat between some kind of snow/ice (depending on location) and an all-out rainer everywhere. It looked like the last couple or so cycles have pushed the low a bit farther south lately, but hard to really tell. If we can get enough confluence to stick around, it could become pretty interesting. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 Just now, Scarlet Pimpernel said: I've been slightly curious about next weekend, the GFS has gone back and forth somewhat between some kind of snow/ice (depending on location) and an all-out rainer everywhere. It looked like the last couple or so cycles have pushed the low a bit farther south lately, but hard to really tell. If we can get enough confluence to stick around, it could become pretty interesting. Mid week snow cover could give a little assist with thermals depending on how much falls and what gets washed away Thursday post mix changeover. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 Definitely a different setup between Tuesday and next weekend. Seems like the majority of the next couple of waves are overrunning while next weekend the trough pushes east and a more formidable surface low develops in the south. Hopefully it doesn't turn into a cold chasing precip situation, but the ingredients seem there for a more impactful storm somewhere in the east. https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs®ion=us&pkg=z500a&runtime=2025020912&fh=174 https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs®ion=us&pkg=mslp_pwat&runtime=2025020912&fh=162 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 12z CMC with some snow for PD. Second run in a row. ' 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 11 minutes ago, CAPE said: 12z CMC with some snow for PD. Second run in a row. ' Setting the table for something else at Day 10 too 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 The Euro is starting to adjust for next weekend. Major move at 12z today vs. 0z last night. 12z top 0z bottom 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 Regarding the - AO 4 SD block. This is how we are failing in my area I would imagine. Great post by @bluewave below, which is from the NY forum. Goes to show you even a - 4 SD AO block is no gaurantee of a significnat snowfall. This is the second time in 4 years this is happening with a - 4 SD AO. You can think what you want but somrthing is not working like it should in the snowfall department. The Southeast Ridge would link up only sporadically with weaker to moderate -AO events from the 1950s through the 1990s .The best known stronger event from that era was 1-9-98. It could be related to the stronger Pacific Jet and the record warm Atlantic SSTs. So it’s the frequency and intensity which has been something new during the 2020s. The coming event this week will be the 2nd -4 link up in just a little over 2 years. The south based block in December 2020 allowed BGM to get the 40” jackpot instead of closer to NYC. It lead to the first snowfall shut out for us back in December 2022 with similar past La Niña and -AO levels. Then the March 2023 pattern followed a similar script. Now we are getting mixed precipitation events with this present south based -AO block. The 11-12th event may be one of the few events without mixing issues in NYC. Interior spots that build up a big enough snowpack could become susceptible to flooding if one or more of the coming storms rides too far north. 2nd -4 -AO in only a little over 2 years this week linking up with the Southeast Ridge -4 -AO December 2022 linking up Southeast Ridge 2022 12 18 -4.151 2022 12 19 -3.671 2022 12 20 -3.326 Earlier era linkage during 97-98 super El Niño 1998 1 9 -3.987 1998 1 10 -4.269 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 3 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said: The Euro is starting to adjust for next weekend. Major move at 12z today vs. 0z last night. 12z top 0z bottom We have a very long ways to go. The block may not be conducive enough for this to be a real threat East of the Fall Line. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 EPS barking for @psuhoffman 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 Just now, WxUSAF said: EPS barking for @psuhoffman Very nice for the 19th-20th. Not seeing a lot of enthusiasm for this weekend. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 9 1 1 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 6 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: When PSU honks, he doesn't just say honk honk...he posts the images with a silent honk louder than a noisy one And hey, hey what's that date at the top? Lol 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 Impressive Eps snowfall mean yet again. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 23 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said: Very nice for the 19th-20th. Not seeing a lot of enthusiasm for this weekend. We'll call it the "Psu Lucky Guess" storm. Lol 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 See how the south-based +NAO aligns with a slight SE ridge? It's too bad the block isn't a little further south, or that N. Atlantic low would have been in the perfect 50/50 spot, and we have all this moisture/storm systems.. would have been a big one. We needed that Polar block at 80N, not 90N. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 That looks is fantastic!. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 1 hour ago, frd said: Regarding the - AO 4 SD block. This is how we are failing in my area I would imagine. Great post by @bluewave below, which is from the NY forum. Goes to show you even a - 4 SD AO block is no gaurantee of a significnat snowfall. This is the second time in 4 years this is happening with a - 4 SD AO. You can think what you want but somrthing is not working like it should in the snowfall department. The Southeast Ridge would link up only sporadically with weaker to moderate -AO events from the 1950s through the 1990s .The best known stronger event from that era was 1-9-98. It could be related to the stronger Pacific Jet and the record warm Atlantic SSTs. So it’s the frequency and intensity which has been something new during the 2020s. The coming event this week will be the 2nd -4 link up in just a little over 2 years. The south based block in December 2020 allowed BGM to get the 40” jackpot instead of closer to NYC. It lead to the first snowfall shut out for us back in December 2022 with similar past La Niña and -AO levels. Then the March 2023 pattern followed a similar script. Now we are getting mixed precipitation events with this present south based -AO block. The 11-12th event may be one of the few events without mixing issues in NYC. Interior spots that build up a big enough snowpack could become susceptible to flooding if one or more of the coming storms rides too far north. 2nd -4 -AO in only a little over 2 years this week linking up with the Southeast Ridge -4 -AO December 2022 linking up Southeast Ridge 2022 12 18 -4.151 2022 12 19 -3.671 2022 12 20 -3.326 Earlier era linkage during 97-98 super El Niño 1998 1 9 -3.987 1998 1 10 -4.269 @psuhoffmanI really hope we don't have to, but have been getting a sickening feeling for 3 days now....you're gonna need to dig that log book out my friend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 30 minutes ago, mitchnick said: We'll call it the "Psu Lucky Guess" storm. Lol I wonder with the block rotting at that time and the nao trending neutral/positive if this trends North? @Stormchaserchuck1 what say you? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 2 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: I wonder with the block rotting at that time and the nao trending neutral/positive if this trends North? @Stormchaserchuck1 what say you? Hey Ralph don't turn around your shadow is following you...BOO ! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 17 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: I wonder with the block rotting at that time and the nao trending neutral/positive if this trends North? @Stormchaserchuck1 what say you? I actually like that timeframe because there is a -EPO. It's a nice Polar connection of ridging from AO to EPO, and maybe even +PNA. If 500mb doesn't change, it should trend more wintry for the Mid Atlantic. But it's still 11 days away, but I really do especially like that -EPO modeled right now. That Day 7 storm though, is really +NAO. That low just south of Greenland gets up to -500dm. That's strong positive! It's a rare case of super -AO and super +NAO at the same time! Edit: I just saw for the Day 11 storm, models keep holding onto the south-based +NAO throughout their run. Just know that -EPO/+NAO is more ice, but +PNA/-EPO/+NAO is more snow. 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 10 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: I wonder with the block rotting at that time and the nao trending neutral/positive if this trends North? @Stormchaserchuck1 what say you? If I may, please note that the AO link to the SER will be broken once we get to the end of next week, after that the typical block evolution should increase SECS potential. For example, you can that today on the 264 hour ECM ensemble forecast......... WOOF ! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts