February Medium/Long Range Thread

[aldie 22]

Just now, dailylurker said:

If a quarter of that happens we declare psu the snow whisperer. 

Too late he's already declared himself that 

[bncho]

27 minutes ago, Weather Will said:

WB 6Z GFS DC bullseye.  Never seen this before.  What a run!!!

dude... there are like 4" per hour snowfall rates... FOR SIX HOURS

[bncho]

SOLD

[aldie 22]

2 hours ago, Ji said:

Charts still look good

Meh that's like 47 one inch snows...pass

[Stormchaserchuck1]

+PNA, which is starting to show up in the long range, favors lower pressure on the coast.. like that 968mb frame on the LR GFS. Hopefully it holds.. it's going against the 7-year seasonal trend

For learning, -EPO is always an ice possibility pattern.. non-neg EPO is rain/snow. 

[LeesburgWx]

37 minutes ago, bncho said:

SOLD

966mb off DELMARVA lol

[NVAwx]

Lock it in. Start a thread.

[WhiteoutMD]

966mb off DELMARVA lol

Now that is a storm like the good old days!!!


.

[CAPE]

1 hour ago, aldie 22 said:

Too late he's already declared himself that 

I'm not sure anyone else could have seen the persistently favorable h5 looks advertised by LR guidance for that period and made a bold call for a big winter storm. 

 

[snowfan]

1 hour ago, aldie 22 said:

Too late he's already declared himself that 

THE chosen one. Just ask him. 

[stormy]

That LP trac from Mobile to Norfolk on 22/23 as GFS depicted would be a classic if it verifies.

[nj2va]

10 minutes ago, CAPE said:

I'm not sure anyone else could have seen the persistently favorable h5 looks advertised by LR guidance for that period and made a bold call for a big winter storm. 

 

I’m stoopid and can’t wread maps but I could have told you the same

[psuhoffman]

3 hours ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

LR EPS is trying to build a 50/50 low after Day 11 and +PNA too.. long range is looking better and better. Kudos to those who said it before.. what were you looking at, the extended weekly EPS? 

Actually when I made the call for mid Feb to Mid March it was based on analogs and timing out seasonal cyclical progressions of the AO and MJO. At the time no guidance showed much, but it emboldened by feelings when they came around to what I was thinking.
 

They all aligned. Analogs to cold enso years when we get a significant -AO in early January have another drop sometime mid Feb into March. I didn’t by the collapse of the MJO because the guidance did that last cycle. I timed it into 8/1/2 for Feb 15 on. And the AO has been in a very consistent cycle of huge drops and slow rise then repeat and it was timed up to so the same mid Feb.  Basically everything is look at to try to decipher long range clues was pointing the same direction and that rarely happens.  
 

The only thing to give pause was it was going against the recent late seasonal patterns as you pointed out. But I just have the sense we’ve broken oit of the dominant pacific cycle of the last 6 years. Not saying the pacific is great now but I think we are in the middle of a PDO phase change and we are not seeing the same degree of hostile influence we did recently. So I went with my gut that this would be different and another cycle of -AO and hopefully snowier was coming. I also like the idea of cycling the general Jan pattern again but with the shorter wavelengths of late winter. Should be a stormier period. 

[cbmclean]

2 hours ago, aldie 22 said:

Too late he's already declared himself that 

The downside is if the pattern under performs, there will be riots.

[psuhoffman]

2 hours ago, bncho said:

SOLD

I’d prefer it a little more tucked 

966 lol 

[NorthArlington101]

I know we kinda discussed it already, but that GFS run was 40” of snow in 12 HOURS! Historic digital snow run… hard to believe we’ve ever had a more extreme hourly snowfall result. 

[CAPE]

This is the beginning/lead in to our upcoming epic (multi KU) period. It's not etched in stone that this will be a big MA rainier with cold coming in behind imo. A few days ago I had a little fun with the PD III possibility, and it won't be that, but a rain ending as snow deal or a secondary wave is a possibility Sunday into Monday.

 

 

[Terpeast]

Its way out in fantasy range, but definitely plausible that there will be a storm around that window. The pattern, as depicted, supports it. But don’t get too excited about specific amounts 

[frd]

1 minute ago, psuhoffman said:

I’d prefer it a little more tucked 

966 lol 

I prefer it where it is .

And, don't be surprised at a severe Nor'easter type event near this date, because the GFS has seen these at long range the past 25 years.

Dare I say March 2001, DT's  Pamela Anderson bust storm.  Was oh so close.  It took me a year to recover mentally.    

 

[psuhoffman]

28 minutes ago, CAPE said:

I'm not sure anyone else could have seen the persistently favorable h5 looks advertised by LR guidance for that period and made a bold call for a big winter storm. 

 

To be fair I actually started calling for that period before the models latched on by about a week. But…it doesn’t ALWAYS work.  Im not perfect in these calls, frankly I think it’s impossible to be with long range stuff. Remember last year. I utterly failed. So even if I get this one right I’m only 50% on these “bold” calls recently. Have to go way way back many years to find the last time before those that I was really excited about a window a month out. It’s been mostly crap for a while. 

[psuhoffman]

10 minutes ago, CAPE said:

This is the beginning/lead in to our upcoming epic (multi KU) period. It's not etched in stone that this will be a big MA rainier with cold coming in behind imo. A few days ago I had a little fun with the PD III possibility, and it won't be that, but a rain ending as snow deal or a secondary wave is a possibility Sunday into Monday.

 

 

If the spacing was a little less between the two displaced TpV lobes it could have been a better threat but it’s probably, like you said, a rain to snow deal because of that.  If the storm ahead of it trends more amplified it might have a better chance.  But it’s not unusual for it to take one wave amplification after a block develops before we get the setup right for a bigger storm here. 

[frd]

 

The negative AO trends continue today with the latest updates, now pushing near -4.25 SD. , the PNA has trended more positive within the backdrop of a -NAO during this time.  

 

 

 

PNA looks great

 

 

 

 

 

[konksw]

A Miller A would be a sight for sore eyes. 

[Scarlet Pimpernel]

That kooky storm the 06Z GFS showed at the end of its run (and I love its kookiness!) is like the 2nd or 3rd time that a major storm has shown up in the @psuhoffman "window" in the ops models in the past few days.  I hope that's a good sign.  Obviously, you can't take any one of them too seriously and at face value at this point, but I'd like to think that seeing big hits like that show up in the ops indicates a solid potential.

[CAPE]

29 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

To be fair I actually started calling for that period before the models latched on by about a week. But…it doesn’t ALWAYS work.  Im not perfect in these calls, frankly I think it’s impossible to be with long range stuff. Remember last year. I utterly failed. So even if I get this one right I’m only 50% on these “bold” calls recently. Have to go way way back many years to find the last time before those that I was really excited about a window a month out. It’s been mostly crap for a while. 

Just having a little fun. When the models were cranking out the epic snow for our current window, I never bought it given the UL pattern. Snow/mix/ rain slop was the most likely outcome for these events. The fact we might sneak in a moderate snow event this week before it gets washed away by the next wave is a huge win to me. Getting perfect timing/spacing/amplification multiple times is asking too much in an 'okay' pattern. Looks like a fun period upcoming overall.

[Scarlet Pimpernel]

1 minute ago, CAPE said:

The fact we might sneak in a moderate snow event this weak before it gets washed away by the next wave is a huge win to me. 

I just "new" you would say that!!! (sorry @stormtracker, couldn't resist, I await the "ban-hammer" for continuing that joke! ).

[CAPE]

Just now, Scarlet Pimpernel said:

I just "new" you would say that!!! (sorry @stormtracker, couldn't resist, I await the "ban-hammer" for continuing that joke! ).

I mean, I effing corrected that like 30 seconds after I posted lol. ofc you caught it.

[Scarlet Pimpernel]

1 minute ago, CAPE said:

I mean, I effing corrected that like 30 seconds after I posted lol. ofc you caught it.

Perhaps you were internally thinking the potential for this upcoming week was rather...weak!  (And my previous post was of course all in fun and humor!).

[CAPE]

1 minute ago, Scarlet Pimpernel said:

Perhaps you were internally thinking the potential for this upcoming week was rather...weak!  (And my previous post was of course all in fun and humor!).

I know lol. I am most definitely a stickler for homophone misuse(abuse). I rarely do it. I always re-read what I wrote right after posting just to double check for misspellings etc.

[Maestrobjwa]

3 minutes ago, CAPE said:

I know lol. I am most definitely a stickler for homophone misuse(abuse). I rarely do it. I always re-read what I wrote right after posting just to double check for misspellings etc.

You're such a teacher  Ya know, homophones always get me in trouble. Of course I know the difference, but this ADD brain of mine moves so fast that if I'm not careful it'll fart out the wrong one (hence the "attention" part). But thankfully with posts you can correct...texts not so much, haha