WxUSAF Posted February 7 Share Posted February 7 HH GFS has the @psuhoffman Storm 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_warlock Posted February 7 Share Posted February 7 9 minutes ago, RVAman said: Looks like Richmond is back in the game for Tuesday. I don’t believe in the GFS. Weenies in our thread would take it to dinner and sleep with it if they could. I’m leaning heavily on the euro here for Richmond. If temps stay low enogh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TampaMan Posted February 7 Share Posted February 7 Just now, winter_warlock said: If temps stay low enogh Well the cold air seems to be shifting a bit every run so we will see. I’m very skeptical down here as anyone would be. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
poolz1 Posted February 7 Share Posted February 7 Alrighty then... 4 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted February 7 Share Posted February 7 20 minutes ago, winter_warlock said: Latest 8 to 14 day outlook shows below normal temps and above normal precip. That could be nice for us!!! Saw this in January and got almost nothing. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_warlock Posted February 7 Share Posted February 7 Just now, osfan24 said: Saw this in January and got almost nothing. Yup it seems like it changes every other day lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_warlock Posted February 7 Share Posted February 7 5 minutes ago, poolz1 said: Alrighty then... Lmaoo nice to see but models cant even get tuesday right let alone 2 weeks out lol 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
poolz1 Posted February 7 Share Posted February 7 2 minutes ago, winter_warlock said: Lmaoo nice to see but models cant even get tuesday right let alone 2 weeks out lol Grain of salt no doubt. But 2 LR GFS op runs the past 24hrs that spit out sick amounts of snow. Just indicative of the high ceiling of potential in the pattern. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted February 7 Share Posted February 7 Wow! Impressive mean about 8 days out. No way it can go wrong. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bncho Posted February 7 Share Posted February 7 1 minute ago, NorthArlington101 said: Wow! Impressive mean about 8 days out. No way it can go wrong. dont mean to be Ji but what happened to our 6-7 inch snowfall mean 8 days out last time 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormy Posted February 7 Share Posted February 7 Here's the deal.......................... 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted February 7 Share Posted February 7 I still think the greatest potential with this pattern exists around the 20th as the block fully retrogrades and weakens. just drool worthy synoptics with the TPV in SE Canada, west based -NAO ridging, and a vort showing up in the Rockies 8 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_warlock Posted February 7 Share Posted February 7 20 minutes ago, poolz1 said: Grain of salt no doubt. But 2 LR GFS op runs the past 24hrs that spit out sick amounts of snow. Just indicative of the high ceiling of potential in the pattern. Agreed!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted February 7 Share Posted February 7 11 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said: I still think the greatest potential with this pattern exists around the 20th as the block fully retrogrades and weakens. just drool worthy synoptics with the TPV in SE Canada, west based -NAO ridging, and a vort showing up in the Rockies What about the 2/16 time frame. GFS had this a few days ago, turned it into mostly rain, and with the 18z has brought it back trending colder. Is this a possible a time we should be watching in your opinion? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 8 Author Share Posted February 8 1 hour ago, NorthArlington101 said: verbatim I'm intrigued now. It's so close here 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 8 Share Posted February 8 Some significant changes end of euro run which could bode well for the 16-17th wave. 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted February 8 Share Posted February 8 23 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said: I still think the greatest potential with this pattern exists around the 20th as the block fully retrogrades and weakens. just drool worthy synoptics with the TPV in SE Canada, west based -NAO ridging, and a vort showing up in the Rockies The PSUHoffman-Brooklynwx Storm! I'll let them decide who should be referenced first! 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted February 8 Share Posted February 8 1 minute ago, Heisy said: Some significant changes end of euro run which could bode well for the 16-17th wave . Looks like that wave off the Pacific northwest coast gets a little more separated in the latest run? Allowing for what looks like a more north-northwest flow out of Canada? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 8 Share Posted February 8 Looks like that wave off the Pacific northwest coast gets a little more separated in the latest run? Allowing for what looks like a more north-northwest flow out of Canada?Exactly, I’m extrapolating, but it also depends what happens with the tpv, does it head farther E or meander and shift W which would change the trough axis. Things trended better for that 16-17 wave today though regardless. Both time frames are on the table (16-17th and somewhere around 20-21st). 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted February 8 Share Posted February 8 9 minutes ago, Heisy said: Exactly, I’m extrapolating, but it also depends what happens with the tpv, does it head farther E or meander and shift W which would change the trough axis. Things trended better for that 16-17 wave today though regardless. Both time frames are on the table (16-17th and somewhere around 20-21st) . Yeah I think I see the same thing you're showing and describing. I like the orientation of the later TPV somehow (the 18Z one), seems like it allows for colder air to establish maybe, for something to run into? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_warlock Posted February 8 Share Posted February 8 30 minutes ago, stormtracker said: I'm intrigued now. It's so close here I'll be intrigued if it's still there in 7 days 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted February 8 Share Posted February 8 26 minutes ago, Heisy said: Some significant changes end of euro run which could bode well for the 16-17th wave . Now this is a case that might work against a short term north trend, because as the block gets established, it'll flex and press everything south. It's still not a great hit for mby, but it's getting close. 50-70 miles isn't much at this lead time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 8 Share Posted February 8 3 hours ago, SnowenOutThere said: I cannot wait till the line of threads each named PSU storm 1, 2, and so on come Feb 20th If we get multiple 6”+ snows out of “my pattern” I’m retiring from ever making a long range prediction again and walking off like John Elway. 2 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted February 8 Share Posted February 8 AI buries us apparently? Where you at @mitchnick? On a different note, keep in mind this deamplification trend may be starting for the Thursday and weekend storms next week already… 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 8 Share Posted February 8 2 hours ago, NorthArlington101 said: verbatim The last storm we had during blocking a week out it was way up to our NW cutting and ended up fringing me to the south. I’m not worried at all yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 8 Share Posted February 8 2 hours ago, WxUSAF said: HH GFS has the @psuhoffman Storm 3 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 8 Share Posted February 8 1 hour ago, Wonderdog said: What about the 2/16 time frame. GFS had this a few days ago, turned it into mostly rain, and with the 18z has brought it back trending colder. Is this a possible a time we should be watching in your opinion? It’s possible but more iffy imo because the PV is still centered to our west as it drops and rotates under the block leading up to that event which opens the door to it amplifying too much and pulling north too far west. That doesn’t mean it won’t happen but I’m less sure of that. Any waves between Feb 19-23 it would be really hard for them to cut to our NW given the flow, assuming reality is anything close to what all the guidance (and history of blocking progression) suggests. That’s our first really high probability window imo. Before that we have shots but they are all flowed to some degree. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 8 Share Posted February 8 38 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: AI buries us apparently? Where you at @mitchnick? On a different note, keep in mind this deamplification trend may be starting for the Thursday and weekend storms next week already… I broke the rules, because I'm such a rebel, and posted about 2/16 and 2/20 as big storm threats in next week's thread. Easier to check them out on Pivotal or TT around 9:30. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 8 Share Posted February 8 I broke the rules, because I'm such a rebel, and posted about 2/16 and 2/20 as big storm threats in next week's thread. Easier to check them out on Pivotal or TT around 9:30.16th looks fun if the confluence sets up right. . 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_warlock Posted February 8 Share Posted February 8 46 minutes ago, Heisy said: 16th looks fun if the confluence sets up right. . Andthe 16th. Is only 8 to 9 days out... not 14 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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