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February Medium/Long Range Thread


stormtracker
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53 minutes ago, eduggs said:

Those images are actually two time period snapshots in succession in the 12z ECM run around Feb 20th. I just posted them to illustrate that what looks good on 288hr ensemble averaged anomaly chart could easily fail to result in a snowy outcome. In fact it's more likely than not. The shortwave details will determine the result. It sounds like you are saying kind of the same thing.

My point is the same. The pattern is good. That puts is in the game. But we can’t tell exactly what the outcome of the waves will be at that range. Just that our chances are higher than normal one amplifies near the east coast with cold around given the larger pattern. 

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54 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

It's was more that trend of the last three eps runs that made me suspicious. You saw the QPF field shift south and get drier. Ot just feels like one of those things that always gets worse as you get closer from Day. Yeah I know it's technically too soon to give up, but how many times has a negative like that popped up in the shorter range and not gotten worse? Lol

Trends can reverse at any time. 

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7 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

It’s been exhausting for me - perhaps it shouldn’t feel that way but it does

Maybe it’s because we have been tracking Tuesday’s storm around the clock for 7 days, since we thought it was a Wednesday event.

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1 hour ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

I'm not writing it off. I'm just not feeling confident.  And the point of my post was that if we do get everything to line up in that pattern change and for some reason we still shit the bed, then as psu alluded to, back to the log book and that conversation nobody wants to have.

"Feelings, nothing more than feelings trying to forget my feelings of Snowwwwwwww. Feelings ...Whoaaaa, whoa whoa whoa feelings....." LOL-cmon man! You're an Eagles fan! Let's go!!

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6 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

People are down about this week and don’t see an immediate threat to turn too and so they vent. 

Man I'm excited for 2/20 on-even if we get some scraps down here in Richmond next week that won't change the possibility of the great pattern after 2/20!

 

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On 2/6/2025 at 10:39 AM, stormy said:

You are exactly right!!  IMO the AO is the most important winter factor to watch.

Here are 7 reasons why:  Feb. 1958 -2.40,  March 1960 -1.62,  March 1962 -2.84,  January 1966 -3.23,  February 1978 -3.01,  January 1996 -1.20, December 2009 -3.41.

I cannot detail beyond 1 month increments.  The latest at nearly 2.0. is impressive.

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