winter_warlock Posted February 7 Share Posted February 7 2 hours ago, mitchnick said: I posted in the 11th/12th thread 18z looks like 12z with a little more precip expanded north. Hard to be precise with the graphics. Additional snow threats on the AI run: 1) Saturday 2/15 Moderate event that may end as mix or rain after 80% snow 2) Wednesday 3/19 light event that looks to have potential for more. It was a bigger event on earlier runs 3) End of run 2/21 Big storm heading east with a nice trough. Could be big a day or 2 later but could be rain. EDIT: Follow-up storm next Thursday mainly rain after a little snow or frozen I'm sure the mainly rain event next thursday will change a few times by then Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 7 Share Posted February 7 Ggem seems promising for the 2nd part of the week. Sprawling hp up top is a big plus: 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted February 7 Share Posted February 7 WB GFS through next Friday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jrlg1181 Posted February 7 Share Posted February 7 6 minutes ago, Weather Will said: WB GFS through next Friday. Nice , most would enjoy that - even the Gordonsville/Barboursville snow hole folks... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 7 Share Posted February 7 How this became an ice storm @psuhoffman is unbelievable Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted February 7 Share Posted February 7 0z GEFS concedes to the EPS with now more -NAO conditions in the medium/long range. Did they update the EPS in 2024? It was not this good last Winter.. @psuhoffman I see your point about AO, and this is a pretty clear cut -AO. Might favor a snowstorm when it has a strong anomaly, but I was saying it didn't look that strong in the long range, but the GEFS is moving toward the EPS again. Will be interesting to see if we see a -NAO/-AO dominated cold pattern again.. it seems like it's been a really, really long time since that has been the case.. but now Jan 2024, Dec/Jan 24-25, and if it happens in the next 2 weeks.. that's 3 times lately, after pretty much all SE ridges with -NAO 2016-2023. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 7 Share Posted February 7 7 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said: 0z GEFS concedes to the EPS with now more -NAO conditions in the medium/long range. Did they update the EPS in 2024? It was not this good last Winter.. @psuhoffman I see your point about AO, and this is a pretty clear cut -AO. Might favor a snowstorm when it has a strong anomaly, but I was saying it didn't look that strong in the long range, but the GEFS is moving toward the EPS again. Will be interesting to see if we see a -NAO/-AO dominated cold pattern again.. it seems like it's been a really, really long time since that has been the case.. but now Jan 2024, Dec/Jan 24-25, and if it happens in the next 2 weeks.. that's 3 times lately, after pretty much all SE ridges with -NAO 2016-2023. GEPS also 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted February 7 Share Posted February 7 4 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: GEPS also So much for seasonal trend and La Nina lol. That's a completely different pattern this year, if that +PNA verifies. I thought it was strong: record -PDO in the Fall, 7-year streak breaking the record by 150%, and Weak La Nina.... but we have not had -PNA in the Pacific at all this Winter. When it's been modeled, that modeling has quickly changed, now the strongest anomaly on that GEPS map is a Aleutian trough! End of the EPS has an Aleutian trough, too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bncho Posted February 7 Share Posted February 7 pretty tremendous snowfall mean on the GEFS 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
poolz1 Posted February 7 Share Posted February 7 6Z GEFS moved toward the CMC ens look posted above. Vey nice PAC pattern with everything else looking ripe as well. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 7 Share Posted February 7 55 minutes ago, mitchnick said: 2nd storm may not be great on the 6z, but this is a pretty sweet ending. Setting the table Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted February 7 Share Posted February 7 I do like the -EPO days 12+ on the 6z GEFS. It seems in the 2-week period models are going more +PNA/-EPO in the Pacific for the last few runs.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 7 Share Posted February 7 6z AI has a threat for Saturday 2/15 but it's not clean and has some precip issues. It has a lot of qpf. That weekend has been a period of interest for a few days. Suffice to say it will change a lot between now and then. Nothing additional of great interest on this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted February 7 Share Posted February 7 The AO looks to go to - 4 SD . That would raise the bar mid month and beyond for a higher level threat. Another improvement today with the AO forecast. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 7 Share Posted February 7 1 hour ago, mitchnick said: 6z AI has a threat for Saturday 2/15 but it's not clean and has some precip issues. It has a lot of qpf. That weekend has been a period of interest for a few days. Suffice to say it will change a lot between now and then. Nothing additional of great interest on this run. I guarantee with that surface track there would be a warm layer above 850, so the mix like is going to be well NW of the 850 in that setup. Just a warning. Plenty of time for it to adjust either way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 7 Share Posted February 7 7 minutes ago, frd said: The AO looks to go to - 4 SD . That would raise the bar mid month and beyond for a higher level threat. Another improvement today with the AO forecast. We are going to get a legit big dog threat somewhere...too soon to key on a specific wave yet but soon... 9 1 2 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted February 7 Share Posted February 7 1-3” north of DC Thursday am on gfs before rain? 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted February 7 Share Posted February 7 This thread got quiet, lol. Looks like a lot of qpf going to be wasted on rain coming up at the moment. Hopefully, things change in future runs (I'm sure they will). 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted February 7 Share Posted February 7 1 hour ago, psuhoffman said: We are going to get a legit big dog threat somewhere...too soon to key on a specific wave yet but soon... If PSU honks in the middle of a thread, and nobody is around to hear it...does it make it snow? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted February 7 Share Posted February 7 9 minutes ago, osfan24 said: This thread got quiet, lol. Looks like a lot of qpf going to be wasted on rain coming up at the moment. Hopefully, things change in future runs (I'm sure they will). Fantasy range, but man it may be cooking… 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted February 7 Share Posted February 7 10 hours ago, Ji said: How this became an ice storm @psuhoffman is unbelievable It won’t 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted February 7 Share Posted February 7 11 minutes ago, osfan24 said: This thread got quiet, lol. Looks like a lot of qpf going to be wasted on rain coming up at the moment. Hopefully, things change in future runs (I'm sure they will). Blocking and favoring our area might still be in the cards, I give it some more time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted February 7 Share Posted February 7 1 hour ago, psuhoffman said: We are going to get a legit big dog threat somewhere...too soon to key on a specific wave yet but soon... It's been a while since we've had a good flood. <ducks for cover> Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted February 7 Share Posted February 7 3 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: Fantasy range, but man it may be cooking… Turns the corner too quick. Snow to rain. Tons of potential the next 10+ days. Blocking “should” help push some south of us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted February 7 Share Posted February 7 Just now, EastCoast NPZ said: It's been a while since we've had a good flood. <ducks for cover> Maaaan what's wrong with ya? Ya really want that? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WhiteoutMD Posted February 7 Share Posted February 7 10 minutes ago, EastCoast NPZ said: It's been a while since we've had a good flood. <ducks for cover> 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted February 7 Share Posted February 7 Eh, I'm starting to lose interest in next week. I'm coming back in here to see what we got afterward 1 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 7 Share Posted February 7 20th def has me intrigued. Block is formed, solid confluence, 50/50….. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted February 7 Share Posted February 7 10 minutes ago, Heisy said: 20th def has me intrigued. Block is formed, solid confluence, 50/50…. . Only 13 more days and maybe something significant, lol. PSU seemed to nail this upcoming two week period as a long shot. Might get something small to moderate Tuesday but then it looks like a lot of rain to wash what little we get away in the week or so that follows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 7 Author Share Posted February 7 37 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said: Eh, I'm starting to lose interest in next week. I'm coming back in here to see what we got afterward Surely you can't be serious.... Alright somebody hit that slow ball Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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