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February Medium/Long Range Thread


stormtracker
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6 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

 Precip is plentiful...just the fucking thermals...850 close to DC...32 right on top.

We lose them both by 135...

Man it's that stupid low that came outta nowhere and is now on all 3 globals. See...that kind of random bad luck stuff seems to happen more on weekdays <_<

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Just now, Maestrobjwa said:

That low up there is gonna be a pain I'm telling ya. Seen this too many times (talking about you March 2018)

I’m really not sure it will play a huge role. Sure the gfs is a lot different in that it’s loaded up qpf wise but it’s more about the wavelengths and energy being consolidated. That’s where the differences arise. I think with that, if the euro had 1 consolidated wave the thermals would be a bit better. 

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Just now, Maestrobjwa said:

That low up there is gonna be a pain I'm telling ya. Seen this too many times (talking about you March 2018)

As of right now doesn't every major model give you 4-8 inches. We're still 100 hours away from the first flake falling. Stop with the negative projection. 

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1 minute ago, Terpeast said:

Euro looks like the classic 3-6"/4-7" overrunning event we used to have regularly in the past. CMC more like 2-4" mix, while GFS is a high-end MECS scenario. Probably will verify somewhere in the middle.

So 2-4 low end ( cmc)and 12 to 18(gfs) high end......  thats a good 6 to 12 area wide on average.. id take that!!

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January 21, 2016 was a loooooong time ago.  We used to get the big ones every 3 years.  We are at year 9.  At some point one of these needs to deliver 18" plus.  It is time to reset the timer so let's do it already.  I can understand the doom and gloom.  I like snow like the rest of ya, but at some point I want more than 6".    And 6" I might add means it's really 3.5" most of the time by game day.      

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2 minutes ago, SomeguyfromTakomaPark said:

People that don’t want 6 inches of snow are nuts lol. This is dc. We sometimes go years between 6 inch storms. 

Exactly! 6 inches is a solid snowstorm. Even up here it's nothing to sneeze at. For most of this forum 6 inches is a 1/3 of their yearly average.

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17 minutes ago, HighStakes said:

As of right now doesn't every major model give you 4-8 inches. We're still 100 hours away from the first flake falling. Stop with the negative projection. 

My concern is that low trends stronger as we get closer, and thus things get warmer than this run. I mean yeah as is I'd take that in a second! As long as it doesn't get worse and turn into another advisory slop event like the cmc seems to be heading towards.

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7 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

My concern is that low trends stronger as we get closer, and thus things get warmer than this run. I mean yeah as is I'd take that in a second! As long as it doesn't get worse and turn into another advisory slop event like the cmc seems to be heading towards.

You and @North Balti Zen should move in together, are you the guy he is moving into in Hamilton?. 

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Is it just me or is the euro struggling more with this than the GFS?  the 0z euro was well north?  Now its south?  GFS might be shifting around as well and overdone but euro is like 75 mile jumps it seems

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