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February Medium/Long Range Thread


stormtracker
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48 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Good test to see if the -AO can dominate, there are anomalies in the mid-latitudes I don't really like, slight Pacific ridge east of PNA region, and south-based +NAO, although some of you will say that's not a +NAO. It does actually fall under the area (1 of 2) that is more likely to see a dominant anomaly, and there is a slight +temp signal in the Mid-Atlantic and Southeast in that composite. This is why I think oncoming storms may trend warmer than snow.. is that right after a front passes? It seems to be a ridge/trough kind of pattern.   Give me a +PNA/-NAO over that any day. 

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42 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

Good test to see if the -AO can dominate, there are anomalies in the mid-latitudes I don't really like, slight Pacific ridge east of PNA region, and south-based +NAO, although some of you will say that's not a +NAO. It does actually fall under the area (1 of 2) that is more likely to see a dominant anomaly, and there is a slight +temp signal in the Mid-Atlantic and Southeast in that composite. This is why I think oncoming storms may trend warmer than snow.. is that right after a front passes? It seems to be a ridge/trough kind of pattern.   Give me a +PNA/-NAO over that any day. 

excuse me, you said that's a +NAO? in what world is this a +NAO

ecmwf-ensemble-avg-natl_wide-z500_anom_1day-9880000.thumb.png.2ddd82592699e3cc949d8b0fa1c81555.png

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11 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

excuse me, you said that's a +NAO? in what world is this a +NAO

Maybe it's a -NAO. That central-Atlantic ridge at -250dm is almost the same strength as the block over Greenland.. if that has a stronger anomaly, I'm going to say that it's a dominant pattern, but right now it's probably barely -nao on the eps. 

1a.png

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6z AI very similar to 0z but maybe a touch more precip to the north of 0z.

It then has a light event Wednesday night into Thursday. 

Then Tuesday  2/17 has a moderate event.

Thursday 2/20-21 has a stronger storm with initial temp issues. That can and will change.

P.s. I have not mentioned any rain events. 

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3 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

6z AI very similar to 0z but maybe a touch more precip to the north of 0z.

It then has a light event Wednesday night into Thursday. 

Then Tuesday  2/17 has a moderate event.

Thursday 2/20-21 has a stronger storm with initial temp issues. That can and will change.

P.s. I have not mentioned any rain events. 

If the Ai goes 4-4 I’m renaming it Gunnar Henderson. 

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