psuhoffman Posted February 6 Share Posted February 6 On 2/6/2025 at 1:26 AM, MDScienceTeacher said: Yeah I dont care if it is upper air/ long wave/ ensemble mean .. I just dont take anything serious outside of 180 hours... I just dont have the knowledge to take what the computer model is spitting out seriously. I am sure @psuhoffman does, so I will trust him. My kids watch a lot of weather youtube and there are guys who will literally step through every frame of the CFS out to six weeks and talk about it as if it is a forecast. Its a real disservice and not the intended use of those models. Expand I can’t tell when a model at day 20 is right or not. But this call was made before any model showed anything. It was based on pattern recognition, analogs and timing the cycles we’ve been in. The fact guidance came around to that only adds some confidence. But I wouldn’t base a long range forecast just on what models show that far out. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 6 Share Posted February 6 On 2/6/2025 at 2:17 AM, Ji said: Can you guys take this to the long range thread Expand This IS the long range thread. Lol 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 6 Share Posted February 6 On 2/6/2025 at 1:55 AM, Stormchaserchuck1 said: I agree but we have like a +0.25 correlation tendency right now. Expand Sometimes I rely on persistence. But my seasonal forecast just got blown up by relying on that too much. I’m guessing the trend of trends not holding continues this season. I just have a feeling the pacific which has been driving much of this is shifting. We will see soon who is more correct. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted February 6 Share Posted February 6 On 2/6/2025 at 2:23 AM, psuhoffman said: Sometimes I rely on persistence. But my seasonal forecast just got blown up by relying on that too much. I’m guessing the trend of trends not holding continues this season. I just have a feeling the pacific which has been driving much of this is shifting. We will see soon who is more correct. Expand CPC got it wrong too.. they usually do good. I think all seasonal models had a SE ridge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 6 Share Posted February 6 On 2/6/2025 at 2:17 AM, Ji said: Can you guys take this to the long range thread Expand I’m sorry you’re right the thread was better when you were trying to cause mass hysteria because the 170 hour clown maps keep shifting around every 6 hours. 13 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_warlock Posted February 6 Share Posted February 6 Funny but true 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 6 Author Share Posted February 6 Icon didn't look too bad 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted February 6 Share Posted February 6 On 2/6/2025 at 2:17 AM, Ji said: Can you guys take this to the long range thread Expand I wouldn't if I were you, Iol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 6 Author Share Posted February 6 Well...good luck yall...almost go time 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGolfBro Posted February 6 Share Posted February 6 On 2/6/2025 at 3:42 AM, stormtracker said: Well...good luck yall...almost go time Expand I just want to tell you, good luck. And we’re all counting on you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 6 Author Share Posted February 6 On 2/6/2025 at 3:48 AM, SnowGolfBro said: I just want to tell you, good luck. And we’re all counting on you. Expand 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted February 6 Share Posted February 6 On 2/6/2025 at 3:26 AM, stormtracker said: Icon didn't look too bad Expand 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 6 Author Share Posted February 6 On 2/6/2025 at 3:51 AM, NorthArlington101 said: Expand Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted February 6 Share Posted February 6 On 2/6/2025 at 3:52 AM, stormtracker said: Expand I'm buying that at this point (though temps are borderline at surface, tbh). My bar right now is 2". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted February 6 Share Posted February 6 On 2/6/2025 at 3:52 AM, stormtracker said: Expand Thank god the GFS is running. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted February 6 Share Posted February 6 On 2/6/2025 at 3:51 AM, NorthArlington101 said: Expand That looks awful. 2 1 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 6 Share Posted February 6 On 2/6/2025 at 3:26 AM, stormtracker said: Icon didn't look too badIf you hate weather 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 6 Author Share Posted February 6 So far, part 1 is souther and drier 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 6 Author Share Posted February 6 precip out west is notable drier. but that's just part 1...let's see what part 2 does Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 6 Author Share Posted February 6 It's just drier everywhere so far vs 18z 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted February 6 Share Posted February 6 On 2/6/2025 at 4:08 AM, stormtracker said: It's just drier everywhere so far vs 18z Expand im at 129 - withholding judgement. Can't tell if it's basically noise or not really... may just be slower Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted February 6 Share Posted February 6 Snowing at 135 - mod central VA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted February 6 Share Posted February 6 On 2/6/2025 at 4:10 AM, NorthArlington101 said: Snowing at 135 - mod central VA Expand struggling to make much push north of DC but not a bad slug of moisture. Slower/different evolution Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 6 Author Share Posted February 6 It's way slower so far 18z it was half way going...now the big stuff hasn't even arrived at the same time 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 6 Author Share Posted February 6 Ok, got better at 144...moderate snow across the area 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted February 6 Share Posted February 6 On 2/6/2025 at 4:10 AM, stormtracker said: Well, I'm not sure we're going to like this run Expand I dunno I think it's fine. Long duration, not seeing temp issues with a quick scan of just the ptype map Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 6 Author Share Posted February 6 good snow still going at 150....temps are good 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted February 6 Share Posted February 6 Still rocking at 147. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted February 6 Share Posted February 6 On 2/6/2025 at 4:10 AM, stormtracker said: Well, I'm not sure we're going to like this run Expand Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 6 Author Share Posted February 6 On 2/6/2025 at 4:12 AM, NorthArlington101 said: I dunno I think it's fine. Long duration, not seeing temp issues with a quick scan of just the ptype map Expand So far, seems slower. Maybe that;'s affecting the look earlier Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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