February Medium/Long Range Thread

[Scraff]

I’m so mad right now. I was given samples of 6 different Woodford Reserves. Multiple samples of beer. And now the GFS only spits out 9” for my back yard. Life sucks! 
 

 

[wasnow215]

31 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

Yeah, should have mentioned that for those guys.  My bad RIC crew!

You're good man! Thermals thermals thermals will be the main issue down here for sure!

[Stormchaserchuck1]

7 hours ago, brooklynwx99 said:

the CPC forecast is based on the GEFS, which looks the same. those indices aren't really that useful since they provide no context

See that pressure pattern of -500mb heights south of Greenland/Iceland vs +Heights off of Africa.. that's +nao. What you are looking at is -AO.  When the negative 500mb moves south of New Foundland latitude.. that's -NAO, but north of that is +NAO. That latitude difference correlates with +temps in the Mid Atlantic and Southeast. 

[psuhoffman]

15 minutes ago, MDScienceTeacher said:

The fact that this accounts for the first 7 inches in Baltimore completely calls the entire TT snow map calculation in to question.

It counts freezing rain as snow. Ignore TT snow maps 

[mitchnick]

3 minutes ago, CAPE said:

I mentioned this early this morning. Not ideal for MA snow. And not the pattern we were seeing advertised several days ago. Honestly surprised we are seeing such snowy solutions on op and ens guidance. Caution to the weenies who don't take failure well. 

It's why we really need to score early to mid next week because that's when we have the best High pressure to our north and cold air feeding south. Looks like the SER ruins it for us after those initial waves until maybe the longer term guidance kicks in with a tamer SER. But there's always a risk that fails too like modeling from several days ago. Oh the life of a weenie.

[NorthArlington101]

11 minutes ago, CAPE said:

I mentioned this early this morning. Not ideal for MA snow. And not the pattern we were seeing advertised several days ago. Honestly surprised we are seeing such snowy solutions on op and ens guidance. Caution to the weenies who don't take failure well. 

this is the saddest post I've seen all day

[CAPE]

1 minute ago, mitchnick said:

It's why we really need to score early to mid next week because that's when we have the best High pressure to our north and cold air feeding south. Looks like the SER ruins it for us after those initial waves until maybe the longer term guidance kicks in with a tamer SER. But there's always a risk that fails too like modeling from several days ago. Oh the life of a weenie.

Even that period is tricky. Guidance is still all over the place. Timing of shortwave energy up north/associated confluence and exact location and strength of HP at the surface are yet to be determined, and pretty much mean everything wrt p-type for our region.

[katabatic]

5 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

this is the saddest post I've seen all day

This sure as hell has been an hour. Just not a happy one. 

[CAPE]

2 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

this is the saddest post I've seen all day

I have the knack. I am an engineer. I am pragmatic and cold. Utter social ineptitude.

[Ji]

I have the knack. I am an engineer. I am pragmatic and cold. Utter social ineptitude.

I actually find you generally optimistic

[CAPE]

Just now, Ji said:

I actually find you generally optimistic

That was a Dilbert reference lol. Love that one. I like to think I am pretty level headed with my posts.

[NorthArlington101]

GEFS took a nudge south - better cushion and a little snowier for most. Still a drool-worthy 24hr panel, even if it was better 24 hours ago

[Chris78]

2 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

GEFS took a nudge south - better cushion and a little snowier for most. Still a drool-worthy 24hr panel, even if it was better 24 hours ago

That looks damn good. Nothing wrong with that  

[psuhoffman]

23 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

See that pressure pattern of -500mb heights south of Greenland/Iceland vs +Heights off of Africa.. that's +nao. What you are looking at is -AO.  When the negative 500mb moves south of New Foundland latitude.. that's -NAO, but north of that is +NAO.

We know how the nao is numerically calculated but most don’t functionally do it that way. Also the AO is even more correlated to snow than the nao so ok it’s a -AO. With regards to snow chances whats your point?  

[Stormchaserchuck1]

2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

We know how the nao is numerically calculated but most don’t functionally do it that way. Also the AO is even more correlated to snow than the nao so ok it’s a -AO. With regards to snow chances whats your point?  

AO is too far away. A neg 500mb NE of New Foundland is the reason why our H5 never goes negative for the threat(s).. I said earlier +NAO/-EPO is a big ice storm pattern, especially mid-Winter. I just think it's more of a setup for ice, although we may do a few inches on the front end. 

[Terpeast]

29 minutes ago, CAPE said:

I mentioned this early this morning. Not ideal for MA snow. And not the pattern we were seeing advertised several days ago. Honestly surprised we are seeing such snowy solutions on op and ens guidance. Caution to the weenies who don't take failure well. 

I'd say it's not ideal for a MECS+ MA snow, or even an all snow high-end SECS. But we can still snow in this because there will be plenty of cold air just to our north and all it takes is a 50-100 mile shift south in the boundary for most of the forum to cash in. And this pattern is about to take several shots at us, and one of them is bound to hit us. I'm thinking 3-6" + mix will be a win for most of us. PA north is more likely to stay all snow and get a double-digit storm. We'll see how the polar domain trends on the ensembles because EPS shifted much colder after the 14th.

[psuhoffman]

@Stormchaserchuck1 sorry of that came off harsh, didn’t mean it to be. 

[Stormchaserchuck1]

1 minute ago, psuhoffman said:

@Stormchaserchuck1 sorry of that came off harsh, didn’t mean it to be. 

No problem.. you're probably the only one who does a real discussion.  Active precip jet is a bit atypical for a Weak Nina, huh? 

[stormtracker]

2 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

snow high-end SECS.

SECS Pro Max 

[psuhoffman]

4 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

AO is too far away. A neg 500mb NE of New Foundland is the reason why our H5 never goes negative for the threat(s).. I said earlier +NAO/-EPO is a big ice storm pattern, especially mid-Winter. I just think it's more of a setup for ice, although we may do a few inches on the front end. 

When you looked at +NAO did you also make sure to only use examples where the AO is negative with a block over top the nao?  
 

This is delicate because I don’t totally disagree with you. I’m also skeptical. But that -AO gives this more of a chance than if it was a more typical +nao in conjunction with a +AO. 

[CAPE]

4 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

I'd say it's not ideal for a MECS+ MA snow, or even an all snow high-end SECS. But we can still snow in this because there will be plenty of cold air just to our north and all it takes is a 50-100 mile shift south in the boundary for most of the forum to cash in. And this pattern is about to take several shots at us, and one of them is bound to hit us. I'm thinking 3-6" + mix will be a win for most of us. PA north is more likely to stay all snow and get a double-digit storm. We'll see how the polar domain trends on the ensembles because EPS shifted much colder after the 14th.

Completely agree with this.

[psuhoffman]

2 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

No problem.. you're probably the only one who does a real discussion.  Active precip jet is a bit atypical for a Weak Nina, huh? 

Nothing about this winter has been typical. And the last two ninos weren’t typical Nino. Enso hasn’t meant as much lately. 

[psuhoffman]

MECS window 

[Stormchaserchuck1]

9 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

When you looked at +NAO did you also make sure to only use examples where the AO is negative with a block over top the nao?  
 

This is delicate because I don’t totally disagree with you. I’m also skeptical. But that -AO gives this more of a chance than if it was a more typical +nao in conjunction with a +AO. 

Back in the day, I made a daily index of all the strongest N. Hemisphere 500mb areas: 1. south NAO (north-central Atlantic) 2. North NAO- Greenland. 3. AO (arctic circle, although this one was rare), 4. EPO. 5. Gulf of Alaska. 6. PNA (Aleutian Islands). 7. WPO Bering Strait. 

I found that [1] the south-NAO had +temperature correlation in the Mid Atlantic and Southeast, and neutral to positive 500mb heights. AO was negative temps and heights, but moreso north, so a combination of those two is close to neutral for the Mid Atlantic.. average high temperature now is 40, so that's saying low 30s is probably the best case scenario.  We know how those borderline events, with +NAO (south-based) or more recently -pna, we know how they trend from the medium to short range when a N. Hemisphere major index area is in a constant. They don't trend toward more snow... 

I'm a believer of the AO, but it's a short wavelength pattern, where we have some unfavorable things stacked directly underneath.  Pacific isn't bad though, and it's mid Winter, when we average upper 10s to 20s snowfall/year.. so maybe we can squeeze in some snow. 

[stormy]

37 minutes ago, CAPE said:

I mentioned this early this morning. Not ideal for MA snow. And not the pattern we were seeing advertised several days ago. Honestly surprised we are seeing such snowy solutions on op and ens guidance. Caution to the weenies who don't take failure well. 

You can get away with telling the truth on this blog. I cannot because super weenies will try to put me down.

No person and no model knows what is going to happen next week or 2 weeks from now.

Volatility is tremendous.

 

[Stormchaserchuck1]

2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

MECS window 

Was excited until I saw hr456

[T. August]

18z euro good for maybe a few inches on the front, then we most likely lose thermals.

edit: obviously it stops at 144, so just speculation. It might end up closer to 4ish inches.

[psuhoffman]

2 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

Was excited until I saw hr456

lol. Sorry. It is what it is. But I’ve been riding the end of Feb or early March as a period to watch for a while and I see no reason to back down now. 

[CAPE]

To be a -NAO or not be a -NAO. Call it what the hell you want but that's a hell of a HL block.

[stormtracker]

Kinda hard to tell what the 18z Euro is gonna do...but thermals are precarious