mitchnick Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 On 2/5/2025 at 10:16 PM, Solution Man said: Maybe something behind this Expand Yep. Just gunna say Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 On 2/5/2025 at 10:17 PM, stormtracker said: Booyah. I'd lock this up and call it a day RIGHT NOW. Expand In a Nina February? Absolutely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 5 Author Share Posted February 5 It's shunted but we get some light snow from the follow up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IronTy Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 GFS seems to be homing in. One more run to split the diff BTN the 12Z and 18Z and I can lock it in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 On 2/5/2025 at 10:16 PM, Terpeast said: A lot to like about the fact that a 1035-1040 High is to the NW of the Tuesday wave. I'm wondering if the Sun-Mon wave missing us to the south is actually helping us by laying down the track for the Tuesday storm. Expand I was actually just thinking the same thing about the Sun-Mon wave. Is the fact that it's somewhat weaker and farther south actually allow the Tuesday wave to grow more, gain more moisture, etc.? While also being colder overall. It seems as if the better solutions lately have focused more on the 11th-12th wave, oscillating on how strong it is, how far north/south, where the snow/ice line is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 On 2/5/2025 at 10:18 PM, stormtracker said: It's shunted but we get some light snow from the follow up Expand Like a C-1"er, more north. Everyone else gets some extra sleet/ice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 On 2/5/2025 at 10:18 PM, stormtracker said: It's shunted but we get some light snow from the follow up Expand More energy out around Colorado. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 5 Author Share Posted February 5 Now a third wave approaching Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 On 2/5/2025 at 10:20 PM, NorthArlington101 said: Like a C-1"er, more north. Everyone else gets some extra sleet/ice. Expand Actually a little better Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherkyle Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 On 2/5/2025 at 10:11 PM, Ji said: no other model shows monday snow for us--so i am not sure why we losing panties Expand I'm not sure it's good for us anyway. The real storm is much better and colder if the lead wave is suppressed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 On 2/5/2025 at 10:21 PM, stormtracker said: Now a third wave approaching Expand That's the Colorado energy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 5 Author Share Posted February 5 Lost the upper thermals....surface about to fold on this third wave Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 5 Author Share Posted February 5 It's close enough to be interesting. Verbatim looks like ice north and west of the fall line Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_warlock Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 On 2/5/2025 at 10:15 PM, NorthArlington101 said: encompasses both events - nothing from Saturday Expand Were back baby!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowmagnet Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 On 2/5/2025 at 10:24 PM, winter_warlock said: Were back baby!!! Expand Phew. It’s been a stressful day on the page. This would have made everyone happy if we hadn’t been seeing all the crazy ensemble runs for at least 5 days. Total roller coaster ride. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 3rd wave after the 13th may look like ice now verbatim on the GFS, but 2 HPs of ~1040 one to the NW and one to the NE of us, and a SLP in northern Alabama - if it wasn't showing ptypes, I would think snow. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paleocene Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 4th wave after the 3rd wave? Lol, weenie run here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MDScienceTeacher Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 The fact that this accounts for the first 7 inches in Baltimore completely calls the entire TT snow map calculation in to question. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 We need that SER to calm down or it's mix precip to rain for us and snows in central PA north time after time. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 HH clown map through mid month 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 On 2/5/2025 at 9:49 PM, CAPE said: He is kind of in the same boat as RevWarReenactor. Misses out/gets fringed on a lot of scrapers/sliders, and struggles with the marginal events where it snows just to the NW. Expand that’s kinda what I thought. I lived in southwest NJ for 13 years. I’m familiar with the climo there. It SUCKS!!! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TampaMan Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 Richmond sucks. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 On 2/5/2025 at 10:34 PM, CAPE said: HH clown map through mid month Expand That’s totally acceptable, unless you’re Ji. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 On 2/5/2025 at 10:34 PM, CAPE said: HH clown map through mid monthI guess that’s not bad for the pre pattern change 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 On 2/5/2025 at 10:33 PM, mitchnick said: We need that SER to calm down or it's mix precip to rain for us and snows in central PA north time after time. Expand I mentioned this early this morning. Not ideal for MA snow. And not the pattern we were seeing advertised several days ago. Honestly surprised we are seeing such snowy solutions on op and ens guidance. Caution to the weenies who don't take failure well. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 I’m so mad right now. I was given samples of 6 different Woodford Reserves. Multiple samples of beer. And now the GFS only spits out 9” for my back yard. Life sucks! 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wasnow215 Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 On 2/5/2025 at 10:10 PM, stormtracker said: Yeah, should have mentioned that for those guys. My bad RIC crew! Expand You're good man! Thermals thermals thermals will be the main issue down here for sure! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 On 2/5/2025 at 3:36 PM, brooklynwx99 said: the CPC forecast is based on the GEFS, which looks the same. those indices aren't really that useful since they provide no context Expand See that pressure pattern of -500mb heights south of Greenland/Iceland vs +Heights off of Africa.. that's +nao. What you are looking at is -AO. When the negative 500mb moves south of New Foundland latitude.. that's -NAO, but north of that is +NAO. That latitude difference correlates with +temps in the Mid Atlantic and Southeast. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 On 2/5/2025 at 10:29 PM, MDScienceTeacher said: The fact that this accounts for the first 7 inches in Baltimore completely calls the entire TT snow map calculation in to question. Expand It counts freezing rain as snow. Ignore TT snow maps 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 On 2/5/2025 at 10:39 PM, CAPE said: I mentioned this early this morning. Not ideal for MA snow. And not the pattern we were seeing advertised several days ago. Honestly surprised we are seeing such snowy solutions on op and ens guidance. Caution to the weenies who don't take failure well. Expand It's why we really need to score early to mid next week because that's when we have the best High pressure to our north and cold air feeding south. Looks like the SER ruins it for us after those initial waves until maybe the longer term guidance kicks in with a tamer SER. But there's always a risk that fails too like modeling from several days ago. Oh the life of a weenie. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts