Paleocene Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 Missed many pages. Are we raining? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGolfBro Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 On 2/5/2025 at 6:53 PM, Ji said: what do i do with this? Expand Play golf at Pendleton? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IronTy Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 I feel like the cold January has the bay waters colder than we're used to which is helping those of us by the water for once. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 A hair better than 00z but really don’t like the north element. Was so much better 24 hours ago Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 If you haven't shed a tear this year yet, let me help. That's pretty incredible even if it's wrong. 1 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 On 2/5/2025 at 7:12 PM, mitchnick said: If you haven't shed a tear this year yet, let me help. That's pretty incredible even if it's wrong. Expand Those are Japan worthy accumulations Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 On 2/5/2025 at 7:12 PM, mitchnick said: If you haven't shed a tear this year yet, let me help. That's pretty incredible even if it's wrong. Expand I wasn’t going to post it. But unfortunately if the reality ends up that, that’s what this type of pattern actually historically tends to produce. Our big snow patterns usually have a negative at h5 centered further south. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 On 2/5/2025 at 7:15 PM, psuhoffman said: I wasn’t going to post it. Bit unfortunately of the reality ends up that, that’s what this type of pattern actually historically tends to produce. Our big snow patterns usually have a negative at h5 centered further south. Expand I was thinking even last night that the NAO block was further north than usual But I ain't shedding a tear over the crazy euro snow map up through NE, most of that comes after day 10 which will almost certainly change of course Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 On 2/5/2025 at 7:12 PM, mitchnick said: If you haven't shed a tear this year yet, let me help. That's pretty incredible even if it's wrong. Expand fwiw, no fucking way southwest to central Ohio gets three feet of snow over that timeframe. Never happened there, not gonna happen now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 absolutely obscene 4 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 On 2/5/2025 at 7:15 PM, psuhoffman said: I wasn’t going to post it. Bit unfortunately of the reality ends up that, that’s what this type of pattern actually historically tends to produce. Our big snow patterns usually have a negative at h5 centered further south. Expand It may indeed be to our north, but that snow map in Ohio is fucking hilarious. No way, no how. Even in their best snow runs through the southwest and central parts of the state, half of that would be noteworthy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 Can we will it back south like 2014? A GPT poem The writing is on the wall, a warning clear, a whispered call. Slip, sliding fast to northern skies, we watch it go with knowing eyes. The models now have played their hand, revealing truths we understand. @Ji, the signs are loud and plain— we’re too far south for a big snow again! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DarkSharkWX Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 EPS trending better in long range for the period psuhoffman and others have been highlighting, more +PNA/-NAO 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 On 2/5/2025 at 7:17 PM, brooklynwx99 said: absolutely obscene Expand Just eyeballing, but that NAO block looks a tick south from previous runs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 On 2/5/2025 at 6:56 PM, Paleocene said: Missed many pages. Are we raining? Expand Yeah. Sorry. 70s next week with maybe storms on Valentines Day 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 On 2/5/2025 at 7:18 PM, DarkSharkWX said: EPS trending better in long range for the period psuhoffman and others have been highlighting, more +PNA/-NAO Expand Some good news is much appreciated ! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 On 2/5/2025 at 7:15 PM, psuhoffman said: I wasn’t going to post it. Bit unfortunately of the reality ends up that, that’s what this type of pattern actually historically tends to produce. Our big snow patterns usually have a negative at h5 centered further south. Expand Pardon the trolling but weren’t we getting PD2 redux 24 hours ago? I’m shook today. 1 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 12z AI IS BETTER THAN 6Z! 11 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 12z AI looks similar to 6z (6z maps posted earlier today) on temps but more qpf based on my guess. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DarkSharkWX Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 On 2/5/2025 at 7:21 PM, mitchnick said: 12z AI IS BETTER THAN 6Z! Expand graphcast too! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 On 2/5/2025 at 7:18 PM, Terpeast said: Just eyeballing, but that NAO block looks a tick south from previous runs Expand I think we get at least some snow before and a week ago that would have been a win. But I still like later in Feb or early March even more. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 AI also has a coastal next Wednesday (2/19) that is light to moderate as of today, but decent looking and could be better assuming it doesn't evaporate at 18z. Lol 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 On 2/5/2025 at 7:29 PM, psuhoffman said: I think we get at least some snow before and a week ago that would have been a win. But I still like later in Feb or early March even more. Expand Based on a crappy SV EPS snowmap I just saw on Twitter, it keeps tacking on through the end of the run and still ends up with some gaudy totals? But sharper southern gradient then earlier runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 On 2/5/2025 at 7:29 PM, psuhoffman said: I think we get at least some snow before and a week ago that would have been a win. But I still like later in Feb or early March even more. Expand Just a shame we couldn't get the expected setup for that window earlier! Been awhile since we timed something bigger in our best window (mid Jan--PD). The 6"+ outside those dates are too few and far between for me to not feel that "too late!" feeling. But I guess it'll be something if we can score some minor events... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 Ukie ensembles last 3 runs compared. 12z improved over 6z in most areas 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 On 2/5/2025 at 7:21 PM, NorthArlington101 said: Pardon the trolling but weren’t we getting PD2 redux 24 hours ago? I’m shook today. Expand My reference to PD2 was specific to what that run yesterday showed. I feel like I’ve tried to encourage caution regarding this pattern. But I know that’s impossible when models are spitting out crazy clown maps. I’m also trying to balance caution with not being a deb. I don’t feel like we’re doomed. We could get a big snow. But when I searched for analogs to next week many of them the bigger snow was to our NW. but it was hard to find a great pattern match honestly. I’m just have been more skeptical I think or maybe reserved. On 2/5/2025 at 7:36 PM, Maestrobjwa said: Just a shame we couldn't get the expected setup for that window earlier! Been awhile since we timed something bigger in our best window (mid Jan--PD). The 6"+ outside those dates are too few and far between for me to not feel that "too late!" feeling. But I guess it'll be something if we can score some minor events... Expand Why? If we get a snowstorm Feb 25 you’re gonna complain it wasn’t Feb 10? Plus I’m not throwing in the towel on next week. Why is everyone going to extremes. I’m not confident we do get a big snow soliton. The more common outcome would be a parade of waves with some snow and ice with each. But anomalies happen. It wouldn’t shock me if we get a 6-10” snowstorm somehow next week from one of those waves. It kinda would shock me if those 20” storms from yesterday’s Euro and GFS hit. Dunno what they were smoking. But it also wouldn’t shock me if we get 1-3” then ice which is historically favored in that pattern. But it’s too early to be confident on either outcome. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 Since when did we start trying to lock in details on progressive waves 150 hours out? This is nuts. Some are acting like these storms are 24 hours out having an emotional reaction to every run. Just because we had a few days with guidance spitting our crazy snow totals doesn’t chance how far out it is or make the guidance more accurate at those ranges. 4 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 On 2/5/2025 at 8:09 PM, psuhoffman said: My reference to PD2 was specific to what that run yesterday showed. I feel like I’ve tried to encourage caution regarding this pattern. But I know that’s impossible when models are spitting out crazy clown maps. I’m also trying to balance caution with not being a deb. I don’t feel like we’re doomed. We could get a big snow. But when I searched for analogs to next week many of them the bigger snow was to our NW. but it was hard to find a great pattern match honestly. I’m just have been more skeptical I think or maybe reserved. Why? If we get a snowstorm Feb 25 you’re gonna complain it wasn’t Feb 10? Plus I’m not throwing in the towel on next week. Why is everyone going to extremes. I’m not confident we do get a big snow soliton. The more common outcome would be a parade of waves with some snow and ice with each. But anomalies happen. It wouldn’t shock me if we get a 6-10” snowstorm somehow next week from one of those waves. It kinda would shock me if those 20” storms from yesterday’s Euro and GFS hit. Dunno what they were smoking. But it also wouldn’t shock me if we get 1-3” then ice which is historically favored in that pattern. But it’s too early to be confident on either outcome. Expand Do you think the blocking migrates further South as we near the end of the month in a position more favorable and impactful to our area. Really talking the NAO block. Thoughts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 5 Author Share Posted February 5 On 2/5/2025 at 8:11 PM, psuhoffman said: Since when did we start trying to lock in details on progressive waves 150 hours out? This is nuts. Some are acting like these storms are 24 hours out having an emotional reaction to every run. Just because we had a few days with guidance spitting our crazy snow totals doesn’t chance how far out it is or make the guidance more accurate at those ranges. Expand This. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MountainGeek Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 On 2/5/2025 at 8:11 PM, psuhoffman said: Since when did we start trying to lock in details on progressive waves 150 hours out? This is nuts. Some are acting like these storms are 24 hours out having an emotional reaction to every run. Just because we had a few days with guidance spitting our crazy snow totals doesn’t chance how far out it is or make the guidance more accurate at those ranges. Expand Ewe must bee knew hear.... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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