mitchnick Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 Just now, SomeguyfromTakomaPark said: ICON very different from the GFS....not good agreement by the ops yet even out to 120 so confidence remains low. Similar to yesterday's solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 ICON looks like its headed towards a F.....O..... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 ICON is lining us up on Tuesday. Stuck at 150. But looks pretty good. PUMMELED. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 Looks like there's a part 2 coming too. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowenOutThere Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 ICON is very nice, keeps everything cold while not having us out of the best precip 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 1 minute ago, brooklynwx99 said: those index charts are such bullshit. this is a -NAO, full stop You are posting the EPS, and I posted the NAO forecast from the CPC. I would expect differences. We will have to revisit in days 11 to 15. However, I do believe the NAO from the CPC source will trend negative and even significantly negative in time, because we have a -NAO loading pattern in place, that "should" lead to a robust - NAO late month. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 Just now, mitchnick said: Looks like there's a part 2 coming too. Wish we could see what’s left to come Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 4 hours ago, Ji said: The 6z euro looks pretty bad. We may see very little snow next week We may see a lot. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 1 minute ago, frd said: You are posting the EPS, and I posted the NAO forecast from the CPC. I would expect differences. We will have to revisit in days 11 to 15. However, I do believe the NAO from the CPC source will trend negative and even significantly negative in time, because we have a -NAO loading pattern in place, that "should" lead to a robust - NAO late month. the CPC forecast is based on the GEFS, which looks the same. those indices aren't really that useful since they provide no context 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 5 Author Share Posted February 5 11 minutes ago, Solution Man said: @stormtracker,are you warmed up? But of course 9 minutes ago, mappy said: This would have been funnier had you wrote knew instead 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 8-10 on Icon with more to come 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 Just now, stormtracker said: But of course Ha! You wub me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 5 Author Share Posted February 5 3 minutes ago, mappy said: Ha! You wub me A little bit 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 ICON ensembles look good, seems like they support keeping us on the good side of the boundary based on the available maps on Pivotal. Looks like about 1 inch QPF of frozen. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bncho Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 GFS is running... let's hopefully stop the north trend. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DarkSharkWX Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 tomers website polarwx has AIFS ptype 13 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 This thread is a true emotional rollercoaster lol. If we manage a 3-6+ type storm in the LEAD UP to our better pattern from the 20th onward, that’s a huge win. People see one fantasy run with 35” on clown maps 200-300 hours out and for some reason set that as their bar. I’m just as excited for deep winter to return as the next weenie, but let’s be realistic. If we can manage two moderate events before things get truly favorable for a big dog, we should all be elated. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WhiteoutMD Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 3 minutes ago, DarkSharkWX said: tomers website polarwx has AIFS ptype Now you tell us Thanks for this we all appreciate this Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 5 Author Share Posted February 5 Nothing of note at this time 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 20 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said: the CPC forecast is based on the GEFS, which looks the same. those indices aren't really that useful since they provide no context Yeah, it’s more north-based block, which still works without playing up suppression risk. No chance of New Orleans getting 10” this time haha 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 1 minute ago, Terpeast said: Yeah, it’s more north-based block, which still works without playing up suppression risk. No chance of New Orleans getting 10” this time haha Wonder if that might retrograde SW in time? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DarkSharkWX Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 not sure if its been posted yet but LWX has already maxed potential impact for the entire region 11 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 6 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said: those index charts are such bullshit. this is a -NAO, full stop Yea I know but. Chuck is very linear in some things, it’s his way, and I don’t feel like arguing semantics. But years ago when I did a case study of mid Atlantic snows I noticed the disconnect between the numeric nao and what we effectively call a nao. So I actually looked at each storm at h5 to classify the nao and there were quite a few that had what we consider a -nao but not numerically. BTW we should keep that in mind when looking at charts that show snow by numerical index. We get plenty of small snows but the numbers for a 6”+ snow for DC and Baltimore are even worse if you use the actual pattern to determine nao state v the numeric. Many of those anomaly +nao snowstorms were actually a -nao lol. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 5 Author Share Posted February 5 Ok, monday, precip is approaching...it's not the main batch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 5 Author Share Posted February 5 Nice slug coming up...temps appear fine so far Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bncho Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 looks a hair colder 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 5 Author Share Posted February 5 Good initial batch for RIC and environs with heaviest over them and just to our south 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 A tick faster this run? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 5 Author Share Posted February 5 1 minute ago, bncho said: looks a hair colder Not really Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 5 Author Share Posted February 5 Surface is warmer...don't know if it's a spike...but sfc freezing line is north of us whereas on 6z it was south Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts