bncho Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 On 2/5/2025 at 1:01 PM, mitchnick said: 6Z AI is WONDERFUL!!!! Expand waiting for game time 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 On 2/5/2025 at 1:06 PM, Terpeast said: Looks like we want to root for an earlier start (or the first wave to be dominant) when we still have the thermals for a most/all snow event Expand Thermals (850's) thru central VA are fine from Monday until Saturday between 6z and 12z. Based on slp locations, I would expect all levels to be fine as well. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 On 2/5/2025 at 1:09 PM, mitchnick said: Thermals (850's) thru central VA are fine from Monday until Saturday between 6z and 12z. Based on slp locations, I would expect all levels to be fine as well. Expand To clarify, they do move north so Saturday, VA into Central MD have lost thermals between 0z and 6z. But Saturday is not a big event. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_warlock Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 On 2/5/2025 at 1:01 PM, mitchnick said: 6Z AI is WONDERFUL!!!! Expand Site I use don't even have the 6z AI yet lol how good was it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 On 2/5/2025 at 12:53 PM, H2O said: Sweet. I’ll enjoy my warm rain and be happy for those that get snow based off one run 6 days out. Am I doing this right? Making final outcome statements when it’s still unknown what will happen?There’s gonna be moving goalposts next week given there’s no big hecs storm to long track. Looks like several distinct waves that could wobble on the models from run to run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 On 2/5/2025 at 1:19 PM, winter_warlock said: Site I use don't even have the 6z AI yet lol how good was it? Expand The precip amounts are really hard to judge totals because the range on the maps is huge. All I can say confidentially is that it's at least 6", and that would be at 10:1 ratios. 850's are cold on the AI, close to -8 up here and between -4 and -8 south of the PA border until around DC, the -4 to 0 into Central VA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 On 2/5/2025 at 1:26 PM, mitchnick said: The precip amounts are really hard to judge totals because the range on the maps is huge. All I can say confidentially is that it's at least 6", and that would be at 10:1 ratios. 850's are cold on the AI, close to -8 up here and between -4 and -8 south of the PA border until around DC, the -4 to 0 into Central VA. Expand We got very burned in DC riding the AI on the last event which had like a zillion runs in a row showing a snowstorm for us. The warmer/north models slapped it around. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 6z Ukie ensembles improved over 0z run from Fredericksburg north. 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 On 2/5/2025 at 1:29 PM, SomeguyfromTakomaPark said: We got very burned in DC riding the AI on the last event which had like a zillion runs in a row showing a snowstorm for us. The warmer/north models slapped it around. Expand None are perfect all the time. It's hit or miss. I'm just reporting what it shows and not saying it’s going to be right or better than any other model. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 On 2/5/2025 at 1:29 PM, SomeguyfromTakomaPark said: We got very burned in DC riding the AI on the last event which had like a zillion runs in a row showing a snowstorm for us. The warmer/north models slapped it around. Expand This is exactly why I keep saying we need wiggle room by being on the north side of the heaviest snows modeled a week out. We have no wiggle room left with the euro op/ens, but it’s on its own at least for now. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 On 2/5/2025 at 1:32 PM, mitchnick said: None are perfect all the time. It's hit or miss. I'm just reporting what it shows and not saying it’s going to be right or better than any other model. Expand Hopefully it’s right this time!!! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T. August Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 On 2/5/2025 at 11:49 AM, Ji said: Expand It’s a general 5-7” through the area with a little more to come. I feel like we should be happy with that lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 5 Author Share Posted February 5 On 2/5/2025 at 12:53 PM, H2O said: Sweet. I’ll enjoy my warm rain and be happy for those that get snow based off one run 6 days out. Am I doing this right? Making final outcome statements when it’s still unknown what will happen? Expand I dont understand what’s going on in here. The 6z GFS improved and shows a double digit snow and this thread and reactions seem anywhere from meh to doom/gloom. What am I missing here? 3 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 On 2/5/2025 at 1:36 PM, stormtracker said: I dont understand what’s going on in here. These 6z GFS improved and shows a double digit snow and this thread and reactions seem anywhere from meh to doom/gloom. What am I missing here? Expand That some people are completely irrational when it comes to snow. It’s sad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 On 2/5/2025 at 1:36 PM, stormtracker said: I dont understand what’s going on in here. These 6z GFS improved and shows a double digit snow and this thread and reactions seem anywhere from meh to doom/gloom. What am I missing here? Expand 12z euro-18z gfs blend from yesterday is now the floor. Anything less than 15-20” is a fail. 4 6 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 On 2/5/2025 at 1:36 PM, stormtracker said: I dont understand what’s going on in here. These 6z GFS improved and shows a double digit snow and this thread and reactions seem anywhere from meh to doom/gloom. What am I missing here? Expand Not enough wiggle room? I can’t figure it out either. However, the Scraff Beer Fridge Index looks great! I’ve given myself more wiggle room by clearing out that upper shelf ginger ale box. Should be just enough room to add 12-15 more beers. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 On 2/5/2025 at 1:40 PM, Scraff said: Not enough wiggle room? I can’t figure it out either. However, the Scraff Beer Fridge Index looks great! I’ve given myself more wiggle room by clearing out that upper shelf ginger ale box. Should be just enough room to add 12-15 more beers. Expand Do you bring that fridge to AA meetings?. 1 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 On 2/5/2025 at 1:38 PM, ravensrule said: That some people are completely irrational when it comes to snow. It’s sad. Expand 1 person lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 On 2/5/2025 at 1:42 PM, Chris78 said: 1 person lol Expand Lol, he is definitely the worst. Unfortunately there are others though. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 On 2/5/2025 at 1:36 PM, stormtracker said: I dont understand what’s going on in here. These 6z GFS improved and shows a double digit snow and this thread and reactions seem anywhere from meh to doom/gloom. What am I missing here? Expand The 0z euro gave us snow but then changed us over to rain for the stronger of the waves instead of the 12z/18z runs yesterday that kept us right on the good side of the boundary for all of it. Everything still on the table IMO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LeesburgWx Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 All I’m saying is, idk why we continue to do this to ourselves on storms 8-10+ days out. We know 95% of the time, what the outcome is going to be.., 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 AI qpf main event 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bncho Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 I suppose I'll lighten the mood by posting the precip maps on the Euro AI. There's an additional .2 QPF in addition to the map. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 AI Thursday qpf 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 On 2/5/2025 at 11:51 AM, mappy said: Sucks to be you Expand Hope like Georgetown it is rain only over his city. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DarkSharkWX Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 1 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 absolutely sickening weenie behavior. not all that much has changed since yesterday... there remains elevated potential for a significant storm from DC-NYC basically. details TBD 11 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 Euro op is kind of on its own at this point. CMC and GFS are fine. Feel like everyone here either gets snow to significant ice or just snow regardless. Winter weather is coming next week. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DarkSharkWX Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 euro op and eps shifted south anyways lmao 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 On 2/5/2025 at 1:56 PM, brooklynwx99 said: absolutely sickening weenie behavior. not all that much has changed since yesterday... there remains elevated potential for a significant storm from DC-NYC basically. details TBD Expand While I appreciate the obvious, we all look for trends that increase confidence. The runs are not doing that this morning.. and last evening. Are they real trends, I dunno.. but when we see the erosion of better looks, our past rug pulls, and disappointments, it will bring the bitterness out of a weenie! We should all be cautious, but we all get emotionally attached to the beautiful runs. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts